ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

Did they drop something? what's with this crazy pattern they are flying. are they looking for somrthing?

I hope so..I was going crazy on getting the right pictures. Watching for it now.

[cycloneye]

Here is todays TCPOD for Saturday and Sunday.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 021530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT FRI 02 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-094

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75          FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
       A. 03/12Z,18Z                 A. 04/00Z
       B. AFXXX 0513A CYCLONE        B. NOAA9 0613A CYCLONE
       C. 03/1045Z                   C. 03/1730Z
       D. 28.2N 91.8W                F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
       E. 03/1130Z TO 03/18Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 76
       A. 04/00Z,06Z
       B. AFXXX 0713A CYCLONE
       C. 03/23Z
       D. 28.8N 92.6W
       E. 03/2330Z TO 04/06Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES,
    3. REMARKS: G-IV MISSION FOR 03/1200Z CANCELED AT 02/1130Z.
       ALL P-3 MISSIONS TASKED ON TCPOD 11-093 CANCELED.
       BUOY DROP MISSION CANCELED AT 02/1400Z.



[Portastorm]

I see people talking about the front stalling. Is there any indication that is happening?

It's a really nice morning here in Houston. Cool and dry, at least in comparison to what it has been recently. I really wish we were getting this rain. Sigh.

No indication at all that the front is stalling. Just basing the idea on early season fronts that were progged to pass through the Gulf states in previous years. Many times, these fronts never actually made it. It this were mid to late September this would be a no brainer, but we are a couple days out of August which makes the idea of a front a little more suspicious.

With that being said, this is by no means a forecast, but rather an opinion based on previous experience.

Actually, there may be some indication of that happening. I'm hearing from folks in the Southeast that the front which was supposed to move through them this weekend is now being progged to stall. Makes me wonder if the trough isn't as deep as thought. This would have large implications in the Gulf as well.

I'd call this one of those "things that make me go 'hmmm.....' "

[jabman98]

No indication at all that the front is stalling. Just basing the idea on early season fronts that were progged to pass through the Gulf states in previous years. Many times, these fronts never actually made it. It this were mid to late September this would be a no brainer, but we are a couple days out of August which makes the idea of a front a little more suspicious.

With that being said, this is by no means a forecast, but rather an opinion based on previous experience.

Okay, I was just wondering if people thought the front showed signs of stalling. I've lived in Houston a long time and occasionally we do get August/early September fronts but it's rare. I wouldn't be surprised either if it didn't quite get here. Time will tell, I guess.

[Dave]

409
URNT15 KNHC 021524
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 24 20110902
151500 2702N 09055W 8425 01548 0058 +187 +109 256006 008 017 001 00
151530 2701N 09056W 8425 01548 0059 +185 +109 256006 007 026 005 00
151600 2700N 09057W 8440 01534 0061 +184 +108 205008 009 026 008 00
151630 2659N 09058W 8425 01549 0059 +188 +105 237012 013 022 006 00
151700 2658N 09100W 8425 01549 0059 +188 +104 248011 013 022 000 00
151730 2657N 09101W 8430 01543 0058 +193 +105 249010 010 021 000 00
151800 2656N 09102W 8429 01548 0060 +191 +106 254008 009 /// /// 03
151830 2657N 09104W 8425 01548 0057 +193 +106 250007 008 016 000 03
151900 2658N 09105W 8426 01547 0057 +191 +106 234006 007 011 000 00
151930 2659N 09106W 8429 01546 0057 +190 +107 212006 006 008 001 00
152000 2700N 09108W 8428 01546 0057 +190 +107 199005 006 012 000 00
152030 2702N 09109W 8429 01541 0057 +190 +108 198006 006 011 000 00
152100 2703N 09110W 8429 01542 0057 +186 +108 197005 006 010 001 00
152130 2704N 09112W 8428 01543 0058 +186 +108 190004 005 013 000 00
152200 2705N 09113W 8433 01536 0056 +186 +108 199006 007 015 002 00
152230 2707N 09114W 8427 01544 0054 +188 +108 214008 010 020 004 00
152300 2708N 09116W 8424 01543 0054 +187 +107 184004 006 031 005 00
152330 2709N 09117W 8433 01534 0058 +180 +107 178007 009 027 006 00
152400 2710N 09118W 8429 01539 0056 +183 +106 196007 008 019 004 00
152430 2711N 09119W 8426 01542 0053 +187 +106 182004 005 016 001 03
$$
;

[CronkPSU]

LOL JB on twitter is awesome, instant criticism of the NHC every 2 hours

[jabman98]

Actually, there may be some indication of that happening. I'm hearing from folks in the Southeast that the front which was supposed to move through them this weekend is now being progged to stall. Makes me wonder if the trough isn't as deep as thought. This would have large implications in the Gulf as well.

I'd call this one of those "things that make me go 'hmmm.....' "

Hmmm... If the front did stall out, how would that affect TD13? Could we have a prayer of a chance of getting rain in Texas? Seems like it might let it head a bit more west.

[tailgater]

Did they drop something? what's with this crazy pattern they are flying. are they looking for somrthing?

I hope so..I was going crazy on getting the right pictures. Watching for it now.

By the way Dave and the rest of you guys posting these obs and pics, I would like to thank you for what you do.

[Javlin]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

27.3N 91.5W NW 2 (2) 29.68 (1005) 35 (30)
27N 91.6W N 1 (1) 29.68 (1005) 35 (30)
26.5N 91.7W NW 2 (2) 29.71 (1006) 35 (30)
26.3N 91.5W

Little bit of an issue with NW movement looks due N to me???

When it's moving 1 to 2 mph... ??

Not really my point.Just why does not the NHC just follow there own #'s ? Even by thier structure true call would of been NNE but it's a general Nward movement as far as I am concern.A 35' difference of 360 to 325 is a little misleading makes some scratch there heads.

[poof121]

JB Tweets:

Joe Bastardi
astounding.. they did not name and claim the rig observations dont have gales

Problem is that the oil rig obs are way above 10 meters, where surface winds are measured from.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kmdj

Note the Anemometer height on that page, 90m.

[EasyTiger]

To me this was a pretty complicated forecast a couple of days ago until I started digging through the maps. Basically the storm is bumping up against the ridge to the north which is currently dominating the southeast US. The depression will then begin to feel the weakness around the periphery of the high which will induce a NW movement for the next 24 hours or so. The remainder of the forecast really depends on the strength and position of the front which is progged to drop down. If the front does make it, the storm will then be shunted off to the NE. If not, then it could obviously stall which is what many of the models were predicting earlier in the week.

Disclaimer: Not an official forecast. Just an opinion based on observation

[KWT]

Well in this case the oils rigs probably are a very good tool to use given the area its in, so if thats the NHC reason for upgrading its difficult to argue with it.

[Dave]

[Dave]

433
URNT15 KNHC 021534
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 25 20110902
152500 2713N 09121W 8424 01545 0051 +191 +107 190003 004 013 000 00
152530 2714N 09122W 8427 01541 0052 +191 +107 158003 003 009 001 00
152600 2715N 09123W 8430 01538 0048 +196 +108 132005 007 014 001 00
152630 2716N 09125W 8426 01540 0052 +186 +108 121009 010 021 001 00
152700 2717N 09126W 8433 01535 0056 +181 +108 149007 008 019 004 00
152730 2719N 09127W 8427 01542 0050 +194 +107 159005 006 017 000 00
152800 2720N 09129W 8430 01537 0052 +190 +105 149006 006 013 000 00
152830 2721N 09130W 8430 01537 0053 +189 +105 117005 006 012 000 00
152900 2722N 09131W 8425 01542 0051 +192 +106 086005 005 011 000 00
152930 2724N 09133W 8435 01532 0050 +194 +107 065005 006 010 000 00
153000 2725N 09134W 8425 01542 0051 +191 +107 034006 008 012 000 00
153030 2726N 09135W 8425 01543 0051 +194 +107 049011 012 014 000 00
153100 2727N 09137W 8430 01540 0052 +192 +108 055012 012 010 000 00
153130 2728N 09138W 8428 01541 0054 +190 +107 062012 012 010 000 00
153200 2730N 09139W 8429 01539 0053 +190 +108 067012 012 008 000 00
153230 2731N 09140W 8428 01542 0054 +187 +108 067012 013 009 000 00
153300 2732N 09142W 8428 01540 0054 +185 +108 076011 012 008 000 00
153330 2733N 09143W 8428 01542 0054 +185 +108 079011 011 007 000 00
153400 2734N 09144W 8430 01537 0055 +185 +109 072012 013 005 001 00
153430 2736N 09146W 8428 01541 0054 +188 +107 077013 013 006 001 00
$$
;

[MGC]

There are a bunch of rigs off the La, Tx, Ms and Al coasts that report weather conditions. Most if not all of the instruments are above 10 meters. Looks like 13 is slowly getting better organized and should reach TS intensity later today.....MGC

[tailgater]

Is someone jumping the gun or do they know something we don't?

[poof121]

Is someone jumping the gun or do they know something we don't?

Probably from the Best Track which upped it to a TS, but they changed their mind.

[Dave]

[Dave]

624
URNT15 KNHC 021544
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20110902
153500 2737N 09147W 8425 01546 0053 +190 +106 072013 013 008 000 00
153530 2738N 09148W 8434 01535 0055 +188 +107 068012 012 008 000 00
153600 2739N 09150W 8426 01542 0053 +189 +107 066013 013 009 000 00
153630 2741N 09151W 8428 01542 0052 +192 +107 070015 017 008 000 00
153700 2742N 09152W 8431 01538 0052 +193 +107 073017 018 013 001 00
153730 2743N 09154W 8425 01545 0054 +192 +108 076019 021 015 001 00
153800 2744N 09155W 8427 01546 0053 +195 +107 081023 025 016 000 00
153830 2746N 09157W 8429 01542 0054 +191 +107 079024 025 018 000 00
153900 2747N 09158W 8428 01544 0052 +197 +105 081027 027 019 000 00
153930 2748N 09159W 8431 01543 0054 +200 +104 086028 028 008 002 03
154000 2750N 09158W 8429 01546 0052 +200 +104 087026 027 /// /// 03
154030 2750N 09157W 8429 01545 0051 +200 +104 085024 025 022 001 00
154100 2750N 09155W 8429 01544 0053 +200 +103 083024 024 022 000 00
154130 2750N 09154W 8426 01548 0052 +200 +104 080024 024 021 000 00
154200 2750N 09152W 8425 01548 0053 +200 +104 077023 024 019 000 00
154230 2750N 09150W 8429 01544 0053 +198 +104 077024 024 019 000 00
154300 2750N 09149W 8426 01546 0052 +196 +104 079023 024 017 001 00
154330 2750N 09147W 8429 01543 0051 +199 +104 082022 023 017 000 00
154400 2750N 09145W 8425 01545 0052 +197 +104 081022 022 015 001 00
154430 2750N 09144W 8426 01545 0054 +195 +105 082021 021 015 001 00
$$
;

[Stormcenter]

Tops have cooled somewhat and still lopsided. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html