ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

So, will we see an upgrade at 11am update?

Looking at the latest models and TVCN I'd expect a westward shift in track as well.

[Pearl River]

TreasureIsland...The pumps could handle it as long as it's not at a rate over, I think, 1.5 inches per hour. If it's steady state rain, won't be too much of a problem.

[SouthFloridawx]

It's kind of a mess. Not sure how it's going to TS...

[Dave]

573
URNT15 KNHC 021444
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 20 20110902
143500 2711N 09033W 8437 01541 0062 +188 +119 194012 012 /// /// 03
143530 2712N 09032W 8424 01553 0059 +193 +117 193013 014 032 000 03
143600 2714N 09031W 8421 01556 0062 +190 +117 188013 014 032 000 00
143630 2715N 09030W 8436 01541 0060 +194 +116 179015 015 033 001 00
143700 2717N 09029W 8425 01553 0063 +189 +115 181014 015 /// /// 03
143730 2718N 09031W 8427 01549 0062 +189 +114 178013 013 033 001 03
143800 2719N 09032W 8426 01548 0062 +184 +114 178012 012 034 000 00
143830 2720N 09034W 8430 01546 0060 +189 +113 184011 012 029 000 03
143900 2721N 09036W 8433 01542 0062 +186 +113 182011 012 029 000 03
143930 2723N 09036W 8425 01553 0066 +183 +112 183011 012 /// /// 03
144000 2723N 09035W 8429 01547 0065 +184 +112 202012 013 /// /// 03
144030 2722N 09033W 8422 01550 0063 +185 +110 205014 014 031 001 03
144100 2721N 09033W 8433 01546 0061 +189 +109 198013 014 032 000 03
144130 2720N 09031W 8428 01550 0065 +185 +109 187016 016 /// /// 03
144200 2721N 09030W 8429 01547 0064 +185 +109 182016 016 /// /// 03
144230 2723N 09031W 8429 01545 0063 +185 +109 176016 016 032 002 03
144300 2724N 09032W 8433 01545 0065 +181 +109 176014 016 030 001 03
144330 2724N 09034W 8428 01547 0062 +183 +109 194009 011 030 001 00
144400 2724N 09036W 8426 01550 0065 +181 +108 190009 010 024 002 03
144430 2723N 09037W 8429 01544 0063 +181 +107 195007 008 028 001 03
$$
;

[gboudx]

If this parks for days and inundates New Orleans, can the pumps handle all that rain? Have they all been fixed yet? Will the lake overtop? Could his be anohter Katrina-like flooding event for the city?

Your answer is found in the 2nd half of this article:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... -to-ge.asp

[Dave]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132011
A. 02/12:33:40

This VDM is from 2 hours ago, the first pass.

Ty Henk, thought I'd reloaded that page but I hadn't...added a NOTE to the posted VDM on the recon thread.

[psyclone]

If this parks for days and inundates New Orleans, can the pumps handle all that rain? Have they all been fixed yet? Will the lake overtop? Could his be anohter Katrina-like flooding event for the city?

a heavy rain event won't compare to a levy breach. that said, prolonged rain rates that exceed pumping capability (certainly a possibility) could result in some flooding. i'm sure some nola residents could provide some details.

[EasyTiger]

So, will we see an upgrade at 11am update?

Looking at the latest models and TVCN I'd expect a westward shift in track as well.

Getting the sense that this is looking like a TX/LA border landfall. Models may have been right the past 24-48 hours calling for a NW movement followed by movement to the NE. It all depends on the front. If the front stalls, it could get real ugly from a precipitation perspective.

[Dave]

Running a tad late on this one...issuing a special weather statement for our area on all county & regional frequencies & SMS alerting systems...from NWS Wilmington OH...at the same time...

[Javlin]

Gcane the system is definitly starting to get that look on the N,E and S sides and is building W as we speak.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[vbhoutex]

So, will we see an upgrade at 11am update?

Looking at the latest models and TVCN I'd expect a westward shift in track as well.

Getting the sense that this is looking like a TX/LA border landfall. Models may have been right the past 24-48 hours calling for a NW movement followed by movement to the NE. It all depends on the front. If the front stalls, it could get real ugly from a precipitation perspective.

If the front stalls and doesn't pick this up it will also open up the possibility of a much more Westward or Southwestward track. Of course if the rebuilding high doesn't grab it either, then LA could really see some incredible rainfall totals.

[SouthFloridawx]

Okay, so in the Remarks section on the VDM it states:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) in the north quadrant at 12:08:10Z

I can't find that anywhere in the HDOB's...

Here's this one:

Time: 12:07:30Z
Coordinates: 28.75N 90.6W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,561 meters (~ 5,121 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.0 mb (~ 29.80 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 109° at 28 knots (From the ESE at ~ 32.2 mph)
Air Temp: 17.4°C (~ 63.3°F)
Dew Pt: 8.9°C (~ 48.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 30 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 6 mm/hr (~ 0.24 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

ime: 12:08:00Z
Coordinates: 28.7167N 90.6167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.7 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,555 meters (~ 5,102 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.2 mb (~ 29.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 113° at 34 knots (From the ESE at ~ 39.1 mph)
Air Temp: 15.4°C (~ 59.7°F)
Dew Pt: 9.0°C (~ 48.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

And this one:

Time: 12:08:30Z
Coordinates: 28.7N 90.6333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.1 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,568 meters (~ 5,144 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.8 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 117° at 33 knots (From the ESE at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 15.7°C (~ 60.3°F)
Dew Pt: 8.7°C (~ 47.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr (~ 0.20 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


What am I missing here?

[HenkL]

It was send at 1435Z, so not your mistake, Dave

[GCANE]

Gcane the system is definitly starting to get that look on the N,E and S sides and is building W as we speak.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Absolutely Javlin. She's firing very high rain rate, borderline hot-tower.

She's ramping up.

If she starts to fill the NW quad, she'll go to town.

[Dave]

and caught up

021
URNT15 KNHC 021455
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 21 20110902
144500 2722N 09038W 8428 01546 0063 +182 +107 196010 011 031 000 00
144530 2720N 09039W 8429 01546 0062 +183 +107 197011 012 031 001 00
144600 2719N 09040W 8430 01544 0063 +184 +106 198010 011 031 000 00
144630 2718N 09041W 8434 01538 0063 +184 +106 201010 011 029 001 00
144700 2716N 09041W 8426 01549 0064 +181 +107 205010 010 028 000 00
144730 2715N 09042W 8429 01547 0065 +180 +107 199009 009 027 000 00
144800 2713N 09043W 8432 01543 0066 +180 +107 191007 008 027 000 03
144830 2713N 09045W 8429 01546 0061 +187 +108 193007 007 026 001 00
144900 2712N 09046W 8429 01547 0061 +189 +108 197006 007 018 000 03
144930 2712N 09048W 8422 01553 0064 +181 +106 178006 006 015 000 03
145000 2713N 09050W 8436 01540 0066 +183 +106 173008 009 014 001 03
145030 2714N 09050W 8426 01549 0066 +182 +105 182012 013 /// /// 03
145100 2715N 09049W 8426 01547 0063 +184 +103 187011 012 016 000 00
145130 2716N 09047W 8429 01544 0064 +180 +104 182011 011 019 001 00
145200 2717N 09046W 8425 01548 0064 +180 +102 188011 012 023 001 00
145230 2718N 09044W 8429 01545 0063 +181 +102 186014 014 022 000 00
145300 2719N 09042W 8428 01547 0063 +183 +103 189013 014 022 001 00
145330 2720N 09041W 8428 01546 0064 +185 +104 197014 015 023 001 03
145400 2720N 09039W 8421 01553 0063 +183 +104 202014 014 026 000 03
145430 2720N 09037W 8429 01546 0063 +182 +105 198015 015 027 000 00
$$
;

[TheEuropean]

No upgrade at 11am, may be at 5pm?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.
A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. WINDS
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL RIGS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005
MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH A LARGE AREA
OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -80C AND COLDER HAVING DEVELOPED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION HAS YET TO TRANSLATE INTO AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE
WINDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HAS ONLY
MANAGED TO FIND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL OF 37-38 KT. OIL RIG
OBSERVATIONS WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE ALSO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS
STILL A DEPRESSION.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED IN A FLAT
RIDGE PATTERN THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 700-400 MB HEIGHT
CENTER LOCATED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. NARROW RIDGE
AXES EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND ALSO SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOTION.
A DEEP TROUGH THAT IS AMPLIFYING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO. BY 48 HOURS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK
DOWN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WEAK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE FORWARD SPEED IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 5 KT...WHICH IS GOING TO EXACERBATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT OVER LOUISIANA AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE
MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES JUST EAST OF THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS ALLOWED
THE WIND SHEAR TO DECREASE AND ALSO TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. DISSIPATION OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT
DRY AIR INFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOTION...LESSENING SHEAR...AND VERY WARM SSTS NEAR 30C THE
CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
NHC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...WITH THE STATISTICAL MODELS
ABOVE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BELOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 27.3N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 27.6N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 28.2N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 28.8N 91.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 29.7N 91.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 29.8N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 31.0N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1200Z 33.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[SouthFloridawx]

Not much to support an upgrade with recon.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

So, will we see an upgrade at 11am update?

Looking at the latest models and TVCN I'd expect a westward shift in track as well.

Getting the sense that this is looking like a TX/LA border landfall. Models may have been right the past 24-48 hours calling for a NW movement followed by movement to the NE. It all depends on the front. If the front stalls, it could get real ugly from a precipitation perspective.

If the front stalls and doesn't pick this up it will also open up the possibility of a much more Westward or Southwestward track. Of course if the rebuilding high doesn't grab it either, then LA could really see some incredible rainfall totals.

If the front stalls, it will have implications on katia too.