ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[ROCK]

It looks like it is bumping up against an invisible wall in the western GOM.

dry air aloft being dragged by the ULL over LA coast.....coming from the Mexican platueas.....you always know it around here when the winds switches to SW we get like 105F....here

[HurricaneRobert]

I know that Texas air is going to make it sick.

[psyclone]

it really looks like a linear frontal mess. doesn't even look like a tc at this point. but it certainly represents a flood threat.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

I am not convinced that a relocation means LA dodges the bullet. This could do like the Euro showed last night. It stalled out and missed the first trough, got nudged SW then finally picked up by another trough but after going through RI. It came right back and slammed into LA as a major. So a relocation S or SE is not necessarily putting LA on the dry side. I think all the talk of relocation is a bit premature, it has looked like this all day so I am not sure why now it would suddenly relocate but I don't know much about the technicalities of all of that so I may not be the best to judge.

low level convergence increases under heavy convection thus in some instances creates or pulls a LLC under it....lower pressures.....thats about as layman as I can get it.... hope I did a good job Pro METs out there...

[BigB0882]

Isn't the GFS usually running by now?

[Stormcenter]

I agree 100%.

it really looks like a linear frontal mess. doesn't even look like a tc at this point. but it certainly represents a flood threat.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[WeatherGuesser]

But man is this thing looking massive in terms of shear size already and it''s just a depression...

This is one of those cases where a single letter makes a big difference. I think you mean 'sheer size' as in exceptionally large diameter, whereas 'shear' means winds destructive to a tropical storm.

[Wx_Warrior]

I agree with previous poster. Do not jump on the "center relocation & now it will go somewhere else" bandwagon too soon.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm with you Rock. the more I look at this the more I am thinking it is a shoe-in for relocation sometime overnight. The dry air wall seems to have killed todays earlier llc. Just have a hard time not believing this wont reform under that deeper convection that is still blowing up btw. Will be interesting to see if we even still have a td once recon gets in there later tonight.

[Ntxw]

Thirteen will not win the war with Texas drought should it venture too close, it seems like on satellite lol. Was hoping that since it's not too organized atm it would bring up some moisture to the Texas coast at least, doesn't look like it's happening atm.

[BigB0882]

Was it last night or the night before that everyone said this looked like it was fizzling out and going poof? My point is that most of the time TCs can not look like they are improving 100% of the time. If they did that then every single one would make it to category 5 status. They run into problems from time to time and they usually bounce back, they only forecast this to get to TS strength so I don't think we should be too surprised at the struggles right now, this could look very different in 8 hours.

[ROCK]

I agree with previous poster. Do not jump on the "center relocation & now it will go somewhere else" bandwagon too soon.

nope I am on the bandwagon.. ..you dont pop 80C cloud tops over the GOM without something going on at the surface IMO.....

[ROCK]

RECON will be in there soon enough and put this to bed...then I am going to bed....

[mattpetre]

But man is this thing looking massive in terms of shear size already and it''s just a depression...

This is one of those cases where a single letter makes a big difference. I think you mean 'sheer size' as in exceptionally large diameter, whereas 'shear' means winds destructive to a tropical storm.

Good catch, my on-line world is full of typos and absent of spell checking... Sorry. But the pun is kind of funny if I may now own it like the fool I may be. My point was that it is already as large in latitude as pretty much any storm can be in the gulf. And because of it's sheer size it may just escape it's sheared sides. Lee sells seashells by the sea sure.

[Wx_Warrior]

Not saying there isn't a relocation of a LLC....I'm saying it doesn't mean this mess isn't going the opposite direction.

[mattpetre]

RECON will be in there soon enough and put this to bed...then I am going to bed....

When will recon be in the currently defined center area? And when will it make it to the possible new center (if at all)?

[ROCK]

Not saying there isn't a relocation of a LLC....I'm saying it doesn't mean this mess isn't going the opposite direction.

yeah...I got it that...I am just saying it gives it more time over water...and could ramp up more........we will have a EURO love fest in a few hours....

[SFLcane]

Messy TD tonight thats for sure..Still feel that the real threat with this disturbance will be the flooding.

[Stormcenter]

Actually Frances did the very thing you mention in your post below. She had some serious 80C clouds tops south of N.O that eventually flooded the city yet her center was way over west by Houston. So it has happened before though I'm not saying this is the case here with TD#13 for sure. I just think we should stick with the NHC until otherwise. JMHO

I agree with previous poster. Do not jump on the "center relocation & now it will go somewhere else" bandwagon too soon.

nope I am on the bandwagon.. ..you dont pop 80C cloud tops over the GOM without something going on at the surface IMO.....

[BigB0882]

Not saying there isn't a relocation of a LLC....I'm saying it doesn't mean this mess isn't going the opposite direction.

Exactly my point as well. Maybe it is relocating, maybe it isn't, but if it does it doesn't mean that we should expect this to suddenly hit Mexico or South Florida. Track may deviate somewhat but it could end up being in the same place in the end, as I have now countlessly said about Euros run last night.