ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank P]

pick your poison I guess.....rain or a major....not sure what I would want.....

I think Texas would pick the rain...

ha...you would be right...our lakes are way down....really running out of water literally...

Yeah, so I've heard.. well let me tell ya, I am pulling for yall to get some from this.. hopefully we get a relocation which would perhaps mover the track more west.. don't want a major for anyone, nothing indicates that is going to happen, but you just never know with this stuff.. good luck

[indian]

what way would the models swing if there is a relocation to the south?

[ROCK]

Our local ocm(state climatologist) just gave a brief update and said not to be surprised to see the NHC relocate the llc further SE under the deeper convection before the 4am advisory. Said the same thing ROCK said: deeper convection/ convergence and lower pressures. I know, take it for what its worth.

I have seen mostly north relos in my time but never a southeast one.....if this is the case it just bought it a whole bunch of time over water.....models tonight would be junk with bad initilization...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sounds sensible to me Cyclone Mike....wonder how far SE

If I had to pick a spot I would say around 25/89 or there abouts.

[MBryant]

In Texas, I think we'd rather have the rain, regardless of what comes with it. Lakes are many feet below normal and the new hobby is mowing the lake.

[mattpetre]

I can't believe the number of people in TX that are going to bed now thinking this will have absolutely no affect on them and tomorrow morning could be staring at a much more frightening situation. Not saying it's going to happen for sure, just saying that we really shouldn't make anyone from Brownsville to Tampa let their guard down on this one. Worst part is that no matter where it is in the gulf it's never far from affecting someone...

[ROCK]

Sounds sensible to me Cyclone Mike....wonder how far SE

If I had to pick a spot I would say around 25/89 or there abouts.

thats where I would put it...

[Ptarmigan]

pick your poison I guess.....rain or a major....not sure what I would want.....

Rain and we could use it.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

ROCK, he is talking about it right now. Showing the infrared and wv and how there seems to be a wall of dry air set-up from vermillion bay westward, hardly any clouds or moisture. ULL over LA not helping but it is pulling out slowly to the NW. Exposed poorly defined llc if there even is one that could be dying out. Like I said earlier talking about the deep convection that has been blowing up in the central gulf with lower pressures and more convergence. Can tell he doesn't want to overstep his boundaries and go against the NHC a little worried if it does relocate could be a hurricane once shear dies down.

[mattpetre]

My guess and only my guess... further south center relocation will give this thing better conditions, it will pump up the ridge, head more due west, and end the great drought of 2011... NOw that my friends is -removed-. BTW winds willl be maximum of 30 mph with rain totals over a 5 day period that will total about 14 to 18 inches (but it will just be a steady rain that causes no flooding.)

Fingers crossed.

[ROCK]

I could even put it at 91W with that hot tower going up now....some cold tops there...

[Annie Oakley]

ROCK I hope you are right only for the reason I don't want Louisiana slammed with epic flooding. We can live without rain for a long time but too much water causes too much damage.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Annie, wouldn't be to concerned. We can handle most of it. Our rivers are at there usual summertime low,low levels and the ground is really dry. Of course not like Texas by any means. WOuld be some street and moderate local river flooding and such but nothing like what they had in the NE with Irene. Now if this stronger than currently forecast with the added saturated grounds and stronger winds over 3-4days then things around here could get really nasty.

[ROCK]

ROCK, he is talking about it right now. Showing the infrared and wv and how there seems to be a wall of dry air set-up from vermillion bay westward, hardly any clouds or moisture. ULL over LA not helping but it is pulling out slowly to the NW. Exposed poorly defined llc if there even is one that could be dying out. Like I said earlier talking about the deep convection that has been blowing up in the central gulf with lower pressures and more convergence. Can tell he doesn't want to overstep his boundaries and go against the NHC a little worried if it does relocate could be a hurricane once shear dies down.

its a good possibility CM and I am starting think likely every time the sat updates....oh man someone is in for a lot of hurt if shear decreases...and it moves 2mph...

[Ptarmigan]

My guess and only my guess... further south center relocation will give this thing better conditions, it will pump up the ridge, head more due west, and end the great drought of 2011... NOw that my friends is -removed-. BTW winds willl be maximum of 30 mph with rain totals over a 5 day period that will total about 14 to 18 inches (but it will just be a steady rain that causes no flooding.)

Fingers crossed.

That's what I want too. Let's hope that.

[mattpetre]

As broad as this circulation appears to be getting right now, I'm really afraid of what we may be facing by early next week. I think our best hope may be that it just sits in the middle of the Gulf until it's exhausted the fuel... ok, not very likely with those overall water temps and the loop current.... But man is this thing looking massive in terms of shear size already and it''s just a depression...



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[HurricaneRobert]

It looks like it is bumping up against an invisible wall in the western GOM.

[BigB0882]

I am not convinced that a relocation means LA dodges the bullet. This could do like the Euro showed last night. It stalled out and missed the first trough, got nudged SW then finally picked up by another trough but after going through RI. It came right back and slammed into LA as a major. So a relocation S or SE is not necessarily putting LA on the dry side. I think all the talk of relocation is a bit premature, it has looked like this all day so I am not sure why now it would suddenly relocate but I don't know much about the technicalities of all of that so I may not be the best to judge.

[mattpetre]

It looks like it is bumping up against an invisible wall in the western GOM.

Oh that's just my front yard trying to soak up all the moisture....

[Annie Oakley]

Dave said there are 7 recons scheduled tomorrow...and that anyone is welcome to help. Tomorrow will be a big day.