ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[underthwx]

already getting outflow boundary showers into SE Texas.....small tstorm moving into Galveston from the east...

Yeah...had that same band about an 2 hours ago here in Beaumont! Rained HARD for 30secs...then onward it went...lol

keep the faith bro....this ball game just started...

[jlauderdal]

12z wind forecast... heheh good old GFDL trying to set itself apart once again... How the NHC didnt forecast everything to become a Cat 5 when the GFDL was the primary model is beyond me

http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/5712/12zlate.gif

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when was it the primary model?

[djmikey]

Model question.... Why does the XTRP never bend or curve? Why is it always a straight line? Does it reresent something diff? Thanks!

The acronym stands for Extrapolation ... it is essentially a straight line drawn from the storm movement. It is not a computer model.

AAhhhh.....I see. Thans Porta!

[bexar]

Hopefully this would become Lee rather than 94L.

[Nederlander]

Hopefully this would become Lee rather than 94L.

EDIT: Nevermind, read that wrong..

[Jevo]

12z wind forecast... heheh good old GFDL trying to set itself apart once again... How the NHC didnt forecast everything to become a Cat 5 when the GFDL was the primary model is beyond me

http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/5712/12zlate.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

when was it the primary model?

The good old days back when the UKMET was the UKMET and the NOGAPS knew it Joseph Smagorinsky and Syukuro Manabe pioneered the development of numerical models of the atmosphere suitable for studying the Earth's climate in the 1950's and 1960's, resulting by 1965 in a model with many characteristics still familiar today: a fluid dynamical core solving the primitive equations on the sphere with enough horizontal resolution to explicitly resolve the basic structure of midlatitude storms, but with most vertical fluxes of energy and water, especially in the tropics, treated with sub-grid parameterizations; relatively modest vertical resolution (9 levels in this particular case); and with a substantial fraction of the computation devoted to comprehensive radiative transfer.

Back on track 12z GFS ensemble wind predictions.. 18z should roll in soon


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[crimi481]

Just loking at it... looks like center will re-form about 100 -150 miles north of N.E. Yucatan
If so - its well south of NHC current center point.
That "low" in W. LA is pulling away
Then a n.e. turn later in period ()as foecast by some Models, may bring it to N.F. Florida area - and up east coast USA?

It just "looks" that way?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/bd-l.jpg

[bexar]

Hopefully this would become Lee rather than 94L.

Huh? This was 93L and now its TD13

what I mean was, I want this storm to be named Lee not 94L. So far this season, the storms that formed much north were upgraded instantly to TS status just like Jose. I think this system could take some time (like 24 hrs) to become upgraded. 94L on the other hand could be easily upgraded if the satellite presentation improves dramatically.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jlauderdal]

12z wind forecast... heheh good old GFDL trying to set itself apart once again... How the NHC didnt forecast everything to become a Cat 5 when the GFDL was the primary model is beyond me

http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/5712/12zlate.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

when was it the primary model?

The good old days back when the UKMET was the UKMET and the NOGAPS knew it Joseph Smagorinsky and Syukuro Manabe pioneered the development of numerical models of the atmosphere suitable for studying the Earth's climate in the 1950's and 1960's, resulting by 1965 in a model with many characteristics still familiar today: a fluid dynamical core solving the primitive equations on the sphere with enough horizontal resolution to explicitly resolve the basic structure of midlatitude storms, but with most vertical fluxes of energy and water, especially in the tropics, treated with sub-grid parameterizations; relatively modest vertical resolution (9 levels in this particular case); and with a substantial fraction of the computation devoted to comprehensive radiative transfer.

Back on track 12z GFS ensemble wind predictions.. 18z should roll in soon


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Frank P]

I would be shocked if this thing is inland per the NHC forecast track... I think it will give us a few surprises before it is all said and done... just prematurely speculation on my part... I test rocket engines, so what the heck do I know about weather.. not much.. ... so far I have had just a trace of rain in biloxi.. winds are up as expected... will post some beach front pixs over the weekend if warranted... would love to see Texas get this as they need it more than anyone...

[Over my head]

already getting outflow boundary showers into SE Texas.....small tstorm moving into Galveston from the east...

Yeah...had that same band about an 2 hours ago here in Beaumont! Rained HARD for 30secs...then onward it went...lol

It was 3 min 22 seconds here. I just walked the dog and it's quite breezy out there. Trees actually swaying.

[weatherSnoop]

Hopefully this would become Lee rather than 94L.

Huh? This was 93L and now its TD13

what I mean was, I want this storm to be named Lee not 94L. So far this season, the storms that formed much north were upgraded instantly to TS status just like Jose. I think this system could take some time (like 24 hrs) to become upgraded. 94L on the other hand could be easily upgraded if the satellite presentation improves dramatically.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Your thoughts are muted by the fact that was 93L not 94 and is currently TD 13

[Jevo]

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/64 ... 52008g.png

Those poor guys up at the GFDL Labs in Princeton.. always behind the curve

[lebron23]

Your thoughts are muted by the fact that this is 93L, not 94

No there saying that they want TD13 to become Lee and not 94l

[northjaxpro]

Just loking at it... looks like center will re-form about 100 -150 miles north of N.E. Yucatan
If so - its well south of NHC current center point.
That "low" in W. LA is pulling away
Then a n.e. turn later in period ()as foecast by some Models, may bring it to N.F. Florida area - and up east coast USA?

It just "looks" that way?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/bd-l.jpg

I am with you about the center possibly reforming to the south. There is a very impressive blow up of convection occuring where you pointed out . However, I will hold off hedging guesses as to where this will end up. TD 13 is not going anywhere fast for quite some time to come. If the center is re-forming, that would be potentially bad in terms of intensity. I think this system would have the potential to ramp-up significantly because the farther south where that convective blow-up is currently, the upper air environment is considerably more favorable. Plus, a reformation farther south would allow this system to remain over the toasty waters of the GOM for a much longer period of time. Just have to watch it all unfold all weekend long.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ptarmigan]

Personally i think the NHC track is a bit too far east... and too fast.

Same here too. Too much uncertainty.

[weatherSnoop]

Your thoughts are muted by the fact that this is 93L, not 94

No there saying that they want TD13 to become Lee and not 94l

I get it now....sorry I am so slow. If my name-sake can be a much needed rain producer with out major flooding damage, I am all for it.

Lee

[Over my head]

Your thoughts are muted by the fact that this is 93L, not 94

No there saying that they want TD13 to become Lee and not 94l

I get it now....sorry I am so slow. If my name-sake can be a much needed rain producer with out major flooding damage, I am all for it.

Lee

It's the way it is worded. Hoping 93l (td 13 ) becomes Lee BEFORE 94 L gets the name.

[indian]

when do the next models come out and will they have more data ingested in them?

[psyclone]

i agree that this would appear to be a candidate for a center reformation due to the persistence of the convective mass southeast of the current center. should such a scenario unfold, the threat potential may shift a bit farther east on the northern gulf coast and, most importantly, give the storm alot more room to power up. these systems in formative stages can play tricks on us. still think the primary threat from this is an extreme rain event somewhere from louisiana to the florida panhandle.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.