ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

*Plays Jeopardy theme music*

Thanks now I'm humming that!

[Airboy]

West winds found, looks like a circulation

[CaneCurious]

Until a true center of circulation is found it is anyone's guess where this will go. All I know is that I am preparing for a whole lot of rain this weekend. My pirogue is ready. LOL!

[Aric Dunn]

West winds found, looks like a circulation

yep very light westerly winds... will it be enough.. i think they will since there is such a high chance of development and its so close to land..

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KWBC 011834
97779 18344 51256 90900 04600 28008 26231 /0010 49905 93305
RMK NOAA2 01HHA INVEST OB 04 KWBC

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Michael, how many days does the Euro show this meandering along the south LA coast, 4-5 days like the GFS? If so guess I should uncover my boat, pull it out, and charge up my batteries as that will be my best mode of transportation for awhile

[craptacular]

Did they find a winner ... west winds at 25.8 N, 90.8 W.

[tolakram]

Do I see west winds there? CLOSEUP!

[sphelps8681]

I was looking at this mornings SFWMD and comparing it to the lastest one and it looked like a couple of the models shifted West. (GFDL and UKM and a slight shift west by HWRF). Hope I am not seeing things.

[ROCK]

West winds found, looks like a circulation

yep very light westerly winds... will it be enough.. i think they will since there is such a high chance of development and its so close to land..

they will do it...

[SunnyThoughts]

I would hasten to guess there is a LOT Of discussion going on as to whether to upgrade now or wait.

[gilbert88]

:uarrow: Yep now we are officially DONE. Why am I not surprised at all? Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

Tell me about it!

I keep hearing that the ridge is going away, but isn't it part of the reason why the TS would not move north? This ridge needs to go away!!

Pray harder.

[tolakram]

Looks to me like the LLC is just forming, still very broad.

Live loop, sat in rapid capture mode: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

copy of latest image


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[ROCK]

I would hasten to guess there is a LOT Of discussion going on as to whether to upgrade now or wait.

you have west winds, hefty fl level winds and surface estimates that support a TS....should go straight to Lee...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 011840
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 15 20110901
183030 2541N 09055W 9588 00462 0100 +255 +236 291005 006 022 000 00
183100 2540N 09057W 9586 00463 0099 +258 +223 289005 005 021 000 00
183130 2538N 09058W 9588 00463 0100 +255 +233 294005 005 022 000 00
183200 2537N 09059W 9590 00462 0104 +254 +238 296005 006 /// /// 03
183230 2536N 09057W 9590 00462 0107 +256 +237 280007 008 /// /// 03
183300 2536N 09055W 9591 00462 0102 +255 +239 263007 008 020 000 00
183330 2536N 09053W 9588 00460 0098 +256 +232 264008 008 022 000 00
183400 2537N 09051W 9588 00462 0098 +256 +231 275008 008 021 000 00
183430 2537N 09049W 9587 00463 0099 +256 +234 274007 007 022 000 00
183500 2537N 09047W 9587 00463 0100 +255 +238 264006 008 023 000 00
183530 2538N 09045W 9588 00463 0101 +255 +239 255006 006 022 000 00
183600 2538N 09043W 9589 00462 0101 +256 +235 255006 007 022 000 00
183630 2538N 09041W 9587 00463 0100 +255 +237 249006 007 023 000 00
183700 2538N 09039W 9590 00462 0100 +255 +235 250007 007 023 000 00
183730 2538N 09037W 9590 00460 0099 +256 +234 248007 007 023 000 00
183800 2539N 09035W 9587 00462 0099 +255 +236 242006 007 022 000 00
183830 2539N 09033W 9590 00460 0099 +255 +235 249007 007 023 000 00
183900 2539N 09030W 9591 00458 0099 +255 +234 252008 008 023 000 00
183930 2539N 09028W 9587 00462 0100 +254 +235 236009 009 024 000 00
184000 2539N 09026W 9589 00460 0099 +254 +233 230009 009 024 000 00

[Comanche]

3 posts yesterday and silence today from Jeff...................

Guess he wants to take a position on this now and is waiting for all these runs to complete; also recon.

patiently waiting.....

[Nimbus]

This has been very slowly organizing over the last 48 hours. Now that there is a closed circulation maybe it will intensify a little faster. The earliest predictions were calling for little more than a TD effecting the north gulf coast, but now we are hearing about the circulation staying out over the gulf for days. Some of the forecasts sound a little ridiculous, has there ever been a major hurricane that developed sitting in a single spot over the gulf of Mexico?

[SunnyThoughts]

Oh I agree Rock, if they upgrade it will be straight to Lee.

[kedekat_2]

Shouldnt something be coming in from recon soon?

[mf_dolphin]

The west winds were light at flight level but SFMR showed 22-23 kts at the surface