ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

OK, I see it now.. That Run looks way too Bullish It looks stronger than Katia like a major as it nears it make landfall near the Upper TX/SW Louisiana before moving NE once inland. I'm not totally buying this CMC run as it looks to deep and perhaps is the reason it gets pulled NE. I could be wrong though.

[NTXwx30]

Juan 1985
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Juan_1985_track.png

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 011720
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 07 20110901
171030 2744N 08639W 6490 03825 0128 +070 +022 146016 018 043 001 00
171100 2743N 08642W 6490 03824 0126 +071 +022 144017 018 041 001 03
171130 2743N 08644W 6489 03824 0124 +072 +021 142015 016 043 002 00
171200 2742N 08646W 6490 03824 0128 +069 +023 133014 017 045 007 03
171230 2742N 08649W 6487 03827 0126 +071 +022 139015 015 040 001 00
171300 2741N 08651W 6489 03825 0125 +071 +022 145014 016 039 002 00
171330 2742N 08654W 6493 03819 0122 +071 +033 156015 019 039 003 03
171400 2742N 08656W 6491 03819 0123 +072 +020 152014 015 042 004 00
171430 2742N 08659W 6490 03823 0124 +070 +036 146016 020 043 008 00
171500 2742N 08701W 6491 03823 0129 +066 +051 140016 019 040 000 00
171530 2741N 08703W 6490 03822 0120 +072 +039 137020 023 042 004 00
171600 2741N 08706W 6491 03820 0121 +069 +057 123028 029 039 005 00
171630 2741N 08708W 6489 03821 0124 +065 //// 128028 030 038 008 01
171700 2741N 08711W 6492 03818 0120 +067 //// 131025 027 040 008 01
171730 2740N 08713W 6489 03821 0119 +068 +067 135028 030 036 003 00
171800 2740N 08716W 6493 03814 0108 +074 +071 129026 028 039 006 00
171830 2740N 08718W 6492 03818 0113 +070 //// 117024 026 040 004 01
171900 2740N 08721W 6494 03814 0115 +070 +073 116029 032 040 002 00
171930 2740N 08724W 6492 03818 0113 +071 +075 117030 032 039 000 00
172000 2740N 08726W 6490 03819 0109 +073 +069 120030 034 039 000 00

[SouthDadeFish]

SFMR has been finding numerous TS force readings. Probably would upgraded straight to TS if they find a closed center.

[Extratropical94]

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE LOUISIANA COAST IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

[BigB0882]

Is the shear still forecast to lessen?

[ROCK]

12z Canadian switches...heads NE like the GFS

after it visits the Upper TX coast and border, does a loop and then out to the NE.....

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian switches...heads NE like the GFS

after it visits the Upper TX coast and border, does a loop and then out to the NE.....

That has been my hidden forecast this whole time Rock...something for everybody

[Dave]

[Dean4Storms]

And the flip flops continue.

[Sanibel]

This reminds me of a June storm. The Jet Stream stayed strong all summer this year.

[stormhunter7]

showing TS conditions to the east of the WAVE... flight level temps are still warm... Kermit should be arriving at center area in at the top of the hour. The most important part is finding those west winds... once that happens.. should go straight to TS

[Stormcenter]

Yes but is hasn't happened yet.....we shall see.


Right now it's still there big time.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

Is the shear still forecast to lessen?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 011730
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 08 20110901
172030 2739N 08729W 6489 03819 0113 +071 +060 100023 024 039 000 00
172100 2739N 08731W 6489 03818 0110 +073 +053 098024 025 037 000 00
172130 2739N 08734W 6490 03817 0117 +067 +062 103023 025 036 000 00
172200 2739N 08737W 6491 03817 0116 +068 +062 111024 025 037 000 00
172230 2739N 08740W 6488 03818 0118 +067 +059 115025 026 037 000 00
172300 2739N 08742W 6490 03817 0114 +069 +064 131024 026 039 002 00
172330 2739N 08745W 6491 03815 0109 +073 +063 114019 022 040 001 00
172400 2739N 08748W 6489 03818 0101 +080 +048 101018 019 037 001 00
172430 2739N 08750W 6488 03821 0108 +076 +049 107020 022 039 001 00
172500 2738N 08753W 6485 03824 0099 +082 +046 115023 023 040 003 00
172530 2738N 08755W 6484 03825 0104 +078 +049 115022 023 038 001 00
172600 2738N 08758W 6486 03821 0112 +072 +064 118022 023 036 001 00
172630 2738N 08801W 6485 03825 0112 +070 +072 120021 022 036 001 00
172700 2738N 08803W 6486 03823 0111 +072 +058 111021 022 036 000 00
172730 2737N 08806W 6485 03824 0114 +070 +069 118020 020 040 001 00
172800 2737N 08808W 6488 03819 0108 +074 +055 119025 027 041 004 00
172830 2737N 08811W 6484 03825 0107 +074 +058 109022 025 038 001 00
172900 2737N 08813W 6488 03819 0109 +073 +056 111025 026 036 000 00
172930 2737N 08816W 6488 03820 0110 +073 +055 111026 027 035 000 00
173000 2737N 08819W 6487 03821 0103 +077 +051 109024 025 035 000 00

[underthwx]

Rock...you hearing the thunder?

[ROCK]

it really getting down to now time and throw out the models....maybe another day of watching some model runs, I guess.....need to start watching sat views...where a center forms and track...still looks mighty sheary out there...

[SunnyThoughts]

BP not wasting any time apparently.

(Reuters) - BP Plc (BP.N) (BP.L) was shutting in production at all of its eight oil and natural gas platforms in U.S.-regulated areas of the Gulf of Mexico as it evacuates workers ahead of a weather disturbance, sources familiar with offshore operations said on Thursday.

[South Texas Storms]

So it looks like I lost several hours of sleep the past few nights looking at models for nothing. Hmmm why am I not surprised? Central TX gets screwed again. Ugh, I'm so tired of this crap.

[Janie2006]

Having some light rain moving through in bands from east to west this morning, winds relatively light. If it was in my power to send the rain to Texas I'd do it.

[Dave]