ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion
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meriland23
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96hr
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion
MGC wrote:Giant ULL awaits Katia. Katia had better build up some ACE because unless the ULL moves it is going to wind whip Katia......MGC
Are you talking about this one?
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IS FORECAST
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN.
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SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Macrocane wrote:MGC wrote:Giant ULL awaits Katia. Katia had better build up some ACE because unless the ULL moves it is going to wind whip Katia......MGC
Are you talking about this one?
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IS FORECAST
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN.
Yes I noticed this yesterday. I kind of think this will inhibit development some time down the road.
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meriland23
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120 hr
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SouthFloridawx
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meriland23
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144hr
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SouthFloridawx
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HurricaneWarning92
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Re:
Zarniwoop wrote:What does ULL mean? Sorry, I looked for a definition. Couldn't find one.
Upper Level Low.
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SouthFloridawx
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meriland23
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168hr
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
GFS has been horrible with breaken down ridging to quickly....dont see any reason why its not doing the same thing here....
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meriland23
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gfs is really sticking it to the right more this time
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SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
Here's a link to the 1000-500mb thickness chart. It's still at 120 Hours now.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_atlantic&prod=thk&dtg=2011090100&set=All
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_atlantic&prod=thk&dtg=2011090100&set=All
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USTropics
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
ROCK wrote:GFS has been horrible with breaken down ridging to quickly....dont see any reason why its not doing the same thing here....
Yea suspect run, it has a pretty decent trough but at the same time indicates ridging by driving 93L actually SW into Mexico/Texas border. Also Bermuda takes a direct hit in this run.
Last edited by USTropics on Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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meriland23
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192h
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meriland23
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216h and its out..
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SouthFloridawx
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
The one to the South of the Ridge is already approaching 50W and it will have a strengthening Ridge. This will be the one to watch.
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meriland23
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Not sure what to think of this model run. See, you guys look at this and see something I do not. Not exactly sure what is or is going on with this 'ridging' or 'trough' that everyone is debating on. Apparently one degrading or sustaining more than the other indicates direction of this storm and I am like this 
but hey, I am 23 years old so I got time to learn 
haha. Anyways, can anyone dummy down these graphs and why you guys think certain runs are incorrect ?
but hey, I am 23 years old so I got time to learn haha. Anyways, can anyone dummy down these graphs and why you guys think certain runs are incorrect ?
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