ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

On the latest WV loop noticed there seems to be a weak UL low developing at the mouth of the mississippi. Is this forecast to stick around/strengthen for the next couple of days? What if any possible impacts could this have on the development and eventual track of 93L?

[South Texas Storms]

I don't see an swirl near the center of this like I did earlier. Maybe the center dissipated?

[nashrobertsx]

Actually if you look at landfall spots it's very narrow from cental la. to eastern ms/west ala (300 miles) (cept one model) but it's not about landfalls with a system like this.. it's the area to the north and east of the system which could get flooding rains....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Shear looks to have shredded what was trying to form earlier. Thinking if the UL low over the mouth of the mississippi combining with the strong shear over the central gulf continues through tomorrow not sure if this could really develop much if there is anything left to develop.

[Ptarmigan]

With this storm Having the possibility of multiple landfalls, it got me
To wondering. Which past storm has the distinction of most landfalls in it's track, before falling below TS status?

It's happened before. Very rare in Western Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Delia (1973)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Turtle]

My local met just showed the low going over Eastern LA and shifting East and 0 rain. But he's still saying that it's hard to forecast where the low will be since there isn't much they can check until the low forms or something.

00Z GFS should starting coming out soon.

[Stormcenter]

Yes I noted the same thing (upper low over SE LA.)in an earlier post.
I would think it would throw a wrench at any significant development if 93L were to move
toward it. IMO

Shear looks to have shredded what was trying to form earlier. Thinking if the UL low over the mouth of the mississippi combining with the strong shear over the central gulf continues through tomorrow not sure if this could really develop much if there is anything left to develop.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agreed stormcenter. Haven't seen any forecast saying anything about a ull developing and interfering with 93L. Seemed to have popped out of nowhere. Have to see if it is still around come tomorrow and friday. Not sure if it would impact the future track much but should definitely help to increase the shear over the northern gulf.

[paintplaye]

Actually if you look at landfall spots it's very narrow from cental la. to eastern ms/west ala (300 miles) (cept one model) but it's not about landfalls with a system like this.. it's the area to the north and east of the system which could get flooding rains....

One of those models is the Euro which is one of the most reliable. Also the CMC and some of the other models showed different landfall points at the 12z run which is more reliable than the 18z.

[ROCK]

0z NAM shifted SW through 36 hours. At this time during its 18z run it was inland in LA. Just south of Lake Charles on this run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Looks like the initialization is too far west and south.

No if you look at its initial 850mb vorticity max, it is pretty much exactly where the 850mb vort max is on the ssec wisconsin site.

ding ding you are correct... it initialized correctly....

[South Texas Storms]

Alright Rock, this is it. King Euro, don't fail me now!

[Javlin]

With this storm Having the possibility of multiple landfalls, it got me
To wondering. Which past storm has the distinction of most landfalls in it's track, before falling below TS status?

Mutiple landfalls before hurricane status I do not know but slightly reminds me of Elena on a pool table event,hiiting many sides before sinking.And so was Elena on Labor day

[BigB0882]

I love tropical systems. In 12 hours we go from "this is looking better than I thought, coming along more quickly than planned..." to "what is that ULL doing there? this thing looks like crap!" Keeps it interesting!

[Annie Oakley]

Floater up on 93L

[cycloneye]

Floater up on 93L

Here it is. Is a mess now,but NHC says conditions will be better tommorow.



Saved image.

[Janie2006]

As long as that shear is howling across the Gulf it's going to be difficult to keep much of anything going. Maybe it'll turn out to be a drought-buster for someone, but so far no dice.

[ROCK]

93L is sitting right next to 30knts of wind shear. It aint stacking in that environment not tonight anyway.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

steering

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=


Low Level convergence is still just north of the Yucatan.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[BigB0882]

If that shear wasn't there then this could be one awful week ahead. Thank goodness for small miracles.

Unless things improve overnight I think they will cancel recon and wait to go in on Friday when things should be better. They can upgrade and send out watches/warnings if needed.

[South Texas Storms]

93L is sitting right next to 30knts of wind shear. It aint stacking in that environment not tonight anyway.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

steering

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=


Low Level convergence is still just north of the Yucatan.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

I'm thinking that it may have a center relocation in the next 24 hours. It doesn't look very strong at all right now.

[ROCK]

well good thing about the EURO is we should get a pretty good idea with the first few hours and where if anything should go...that means I can hit the sack early....