ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

I think it's that 40 knots of shear blowing west to east that's cutting down the convection. Take a look at water vapor.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

I think you're right Porta. It looks like it's really strong on wv. Will the shear begin to relax tomorrow?

[HouTXmetro]

around tue/wed of next week

Thanks surfer dude, I am suppose to leave Tomorrow night so things are still a go for now. Will be monitoring closely throughout the day.

[Stormcenter]

Is that an upper low over SE LA.?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it's that 40 knots of shear blowing west to east that's cutting down the convection. Take a look at water vapor.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

I was thinking the same thing Porta. There's no way a depression can form with that brutal shear tearing apart the convection....That shear is going to have to subside.

[TwisterFanatic]

It just doesn't the necessary conditions to develop right now. You can just see the shear ripping at it on loops.

[Air Force Met]

Is that an upper low over SE LA.?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Yes...

[BigB0882]

I agree, shear is way too high. Convection gets blown away the minute it forms. I think it is scheduled to subside a little over the next day or two so we shall see!

[Portastorm]

Here is the latest shear tendency (it is increasing near our area of interest for 93L) map:



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[underthwx]

LOCAL EYES ARE LOOKING TOWARDS THE NEXT FEATURE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
BIG QUESTION IS IMPACT, IF ANY, WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF. MODELS CONTINUE A RATHER
LARGE SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE ONE THING THEY ALL GENERALLY
AGREE ON IS THAT AN ORGANIZED LOW WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHAT THEY DISAGREE ON IS WHERE THE LOW WILL GO OR HOW STRONG IT WILL
BECOME. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOCUSES ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOCAL AREA MOSTLY DRY.


9:20p.m. Tallahasee Forecasr Discussion...im confused...isnt the fla. panhandle, and regions a little west where the bulk of the rain should fall?...as a beginner its seems like what i am reading on both the models and the discussion side leads me to believe thats where its all gonna head...and then i read they expect mostly dry conditions its confusing...








The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Recurve]

Tallahassee is pretty much on the eastern edge of the Panhandle.

[South Texas Storms]

Is that an upper low over SE LA.?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Yes...

AFM what are your thoughts on 93L?

[bamajammer4eva]

9:20p.m. Tallahasee Forecasr Discussion...im confused...isnt the fla. panhandle, and regions a little west where the bulk of the rain should fall?...as a beginner its seems like what i am reading on both the models and the discussion side leads me to believe that...correct me if im wrong...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

They seem to prefer the Euro. The office to their West, Mobile AL, sings a different tune and notes that the Euro trended east.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...BIG QUESTION IS WHAT IS
GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF. THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED
A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE
ONE THING THEY ALL GENERALLY AGREE ON IS THAT AN ORGANIZED LOW
CENTER WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE. THEY DON`T AGREE ON WHERE
THE LOW WILL GO OR HOW STRONG IT WILL BECOME. THE LATEST 12Z GFS
BRINGS THE LOW UP INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY THEN MOVES IT
VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED ITS MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION BUT TRENDED FARTHER EAST FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...A
BIT STRONGER INITIALLY...THEN RETROGRADES THE LOW BACK TO TEXAS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BUILDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE
(SOMETHING THE GFS DOES NOT DO). RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND FAITH
IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION IS LOW...SO THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE LOW THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT FORECAST WITH
THE LOW...THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMETHING WE MUST CONSIDER. RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKING FLOOD IMPACTS OVER OUR AREA...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD WITH THE LOW. GIVEN THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS...WE RAISED THE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA TO BE MORE INLINE WITH THE CONSENSUS. AS
FOR THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM
WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY BE A HYBRID SUBTROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WITH
BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT ANY RATE...WE WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE GULF SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
05/JG

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM shifted SW through 36 hours. At this time during its 18z run it was inland in LA. Just south of Lake Charles on this run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[NTXwx30]

can one of you pros summarize what you see with the latest sfwmd model....pls?..

These scatter plots are intended for use by individuals with proper training and expertise.
There are multiple potential causes of misinterpretation that include, but are not limited to, the following: Each model utilizes different assumptions and different calculations which leads to different models performing better in different situations. All models have unique biases. Some models utilize statistics, some utilize physics formulas, some utilize a combination of both. Some models perform best with weaker systems, others perform best with well-developed, purely tropical systems. The spread of the various model solutions can give a sense of the uncertainty associated with a particular storm track. However, some of the models are interrelated as they share the same initial analyses or the same global forecast fields. Therefore, clustering of model solutions does not necessarily indicate truely independent agreement.
Poor model analyses of initial conditions can lead to even worse model solutions.
IMO I think we should wait for Recon to get better data for the models.

[Radiogirltx]

With this storm Having the possibility of multiple landfalls, it got me
To wondering. Which past storm has the distinction of most landfalls in it's track, before falling below TS status?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

From the "splat" models Ron posted a little while ago, one thing is obvious. Here in SE LA looks like we could be in for the potential of some major flooding rains.

Something else I was wondering is I have seen a few posts saying how condusive conditions are in the gulf for moderate to rapid strenghtening. Others have said there will be some modest shear for the next 4-5 days in the gulf. Can anyone shed some light on this and post some forecast shear maps for the next few days. I know you can't put a lot of faith in them but its somewhere to start. I know the water temps are really warm but dry air coming from the north could also be a killer once this gets close enough to land. Seen it happen many times around here before. Thinking this could become a minimal hurricane but as we saw with Irene models were way off on intensity for her. I guess time will tell.

[NTXwx30]

From the "splat" models Ron posted a little while ago, one thing is obvious. Here in SE LA looks like we could be in for the potential of some major flooding rains.

Something else I was wondering is I have seen a few posts saying how condusive conditions are in the gulf for moderate to rapid strenghtening. Others have said there will be some modest shear for the next 4-5 days in the gulf. Can anyone shed some light on this and post some forecast shear maps for the next few days. I know you can't put a lot of faith in them but its somewhere to start. I know the water temps are really warm but dry air coming from the north could also be a killer once this gets close enough to land. Seen it happen many times around here before. Thinking this could become a minimal hurricane but as we saw with Irene models were way off on intensity for her. I guess time will tell.

Maybe this will help?
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... shear.html

[HurricaneBrain]

With this storm Having the possibility of multiple landfalls, it got me
To wondering. Which past storm has the distinction of most landfalls in it's track, before falling below TS status?

Fay (2008) 4 landfalls.

[Dean4Storms]

0z NAM shifted SW through 36 hours. At this time during its 18z run it was inland in LA. Just south of Lake Charles on this run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Looks like the initialization is too far west and south.

[Stormcenter]

Hopefully this will hold back any significant development of 93L.

Here is the latest shear tendency (it is increasing near our area of interest for 93L) map:

[img]http://img40.imageshack.us/img40/1324/wg8shtj.gif[ /img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us