ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

I'm wishing as hard as I can for Texas to get this to help with their drought situation. I know you guys need it really badly. I hope NO doesn't get flooded too much, and hopefully the strength of the system stays in check so it doesn't do much harm anywhere.

[Radiogirltx]

Quote--_" HYBRID SUBTROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WITH
BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS"

Huh? Someone please explain in 2nd grade English. Lol!

[Jevo]

18z GFS +192 (Going back South)

[northjaxpro]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Good evening everyone.

It is looking very probable that due to very weak steering currents being forecast in the GOM for the period up to the next five days that 93L or future Lee is going to be a meandering and menancing presence out there.

This potential for a storm to wreak havoc along the Gulf Coast somewhere is becoming rather worrisome for me. Although I know many across the region need rainfall very badly due to the drought conditions this summer, this system could potentially become an Allison-type situation and that would not be good at all. Also, the fact the entire GOM is like bathwater really has me concerned that 93L could really intensify, even if the upper level environment would bbe marginally favorable in terms of wind shear values. It all remains to be seen. There are so many uncertains with this system. The fact that this system may be hanging around in the GOM or near or along the coast for the next 5 days or possibly longer is really a headache and could pose dangerous problems for going into the Labor Day holiday weekend.

[Dean4Storms]

That run looks very plausible to me, misses the initial weak trough across the northern states but then gets picked up by the much stronger second trough that digs all the way into TX. That movement south is reflecting the ridge rebuilding a bit before the second trough. Also should add that the Fujiwara effect from Katia may also be playing a roll.

[South Texas Storms]

Ugh, the GFS is gonna make me REALLY mad if it outduels the Euro and verifies with its LA/FL landfall. Last year it got me all excited that Alex was gonna dump over 5 inches of rain in central TX, while the Euro showed it going into Mexico all along. You better not beat Mr. Euro, GFS!

But as of right now, I agree with our local mets here and I'm leaning more towards the CMC/Euro solutions.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +228 (Here ya go Ivan)

[Ivanhater]

That run of the GFS would be very bad for the north central gulf coast...tropical storm or hurricane conditions for days!

[Wthrman13]

Quote--_" HYBRID SUBTROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WITH
BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS"

Huh? Someone please explain in 2nd grade English. Lol!

It means that the developing system may contain some characteristics that are more typical of mid-latitude low pressure systems; that is, it may contain cold and warm fronts and large gradients of temperature in the horizontal (i.e. colder air on one side of the system and warmer air on the other side). A more typical tropical cyclone usually has no fronts associated with it, and has very little, if any temperature gradient from one side to the other.

It's more complicated than that, but that's the basic idea.

[South Texas Storms]

That run of the GFS would be very bad for the north central gulf coast...tropical storm or hurricane conditions for days!

Now Ivan do you really think that run is going to verify?

[Ivanhater]

That run of the GFS would be very bad for the north central gulf coast...tropical storm or hurricane conditions for days!

Now Ivan do you really think that run is going to verify?

Exactly? Probably not; however, a very slow moving or stalling system could very well be in the cards

[jes]

I don't read maps, but that picture looks like the storm stretches from west of NO to far into the panhandle. Is this supposed to be a large storm?

[South Texas Storms]

18z NOGAPS is almost exactly like today's 12z Euro. Wow.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All

[PauleinHouston]

Anyone care to chine in on whether the T/Wave (definite low/mid level circulation evident on rgb) that just moved onshore near Tampico may have any influence on 93L? Call it 98W/23.5N

Edit again...and, for that matter, the large blowup right over the Yucatan Peninsula as well. For a time a few days ago, there were 2 distinct and separate systems hinted at, one of which was in the BOC and just muddled around down there.

Edit yet again...I guess not

[northjaxpro]

It is looking more and more with time that this system is going to be a very slow mover meandering around in the GOM. The potential for this system to cause some serious problems somewhere along the Gulf Coast could be really huge. I really hope it doesn't get that extreme, but all the models I have analyzed showed the steering pattern too weak with nothing coming upstream to "kick it out" of the GOM for the upcoming 5 days, with some showing it lingering for more days than that.

[cyclogenesis]

August 31, 2011
this Wednesday afternoon
541 PM CDT



Gang ~~ I have placed a NEW weather writing on to my website, at 525 PM, on 8/31, which details your next tropical storm to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. You can read the writing by clicking on the following URL weblink provided down below:



http://cvamagic.tripod.com/






-- cyclogenesis

[Dean4Storms]

Winds gusting today just over 30kts in the eastern Gulf today.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

[djmikey]

Afternoon Update from Jeff Lindner:

Tropical cyclone formation likely over the NW Gulf of Mexico Friday/Saturday.

Residents along the TX/LA coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to enact these plans this weekend.

Confidence remains low, but starting to get better model agreement

Models have come into slightly better agreement today on the formation of a tropical system currently located over the SE Gulf of Mexico between SW FL and the Yucatan. Satellite images suggest thunderstorm activity is increasing in this area and NHC has raised the chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours to 30%. While there is good agreement on the actual formation of the system, there is poor agreement on where it forms and how it tracks. GFS continues to be the outlier solution showing a low developing off the LA coast and drifting E then NE across FL, this model shows the system getting caught in the trough passing across the northern plains. The GFS looks too deep with the trough and hence the E motion appears unlikely at this time. The ECMWF shows development S of The TX/LA border and then greatly deepens the system all the way down to a strong 968mb hurricane while drifting it W then WSW toward the middle TX coast. The CMC is similar to the ECMWF, but not as strong and more northward toward the upper TX coast. The NAM showing a steady NW motion then a slowing and drift toward the WNW/NW off the SW LA/SE TX coast. Heavy coordination with NHC/HPC and local WFO’s this afternoon are in agreement to lean toward the ECMWF, CMC, NAM, and numerous ensemble members suggesting a low forms over the central or NW Gulf on Friday and then drifts NW this weekend possibly making landfall somewhere on the TX coast, but also just as possible to remain offshore into the middle of next week.

Hard to really hang a forecast without an actual low center yet, where that center develops will be important as to where the system may track.

Intensity
One thing is for sure, models have really jumped upward on the intensity today with several now showing a full blown hurricane in the NW Gulf this weekend. Up to this point, the models have been keeping the system fairly broad and moderate, but now they really want to deepen it. Looking at the factors involved over the NW Gulf: Sea surface temperatures are very warm in the (86-90 degree range), upper level winds are forecast to be somewhat favorable (likely more toward the favorable side than not), however there is a large mass of dry air over TX and LA that could get entrained into the system hindering development. With all that said, you never want to leave a tropical system sitting over the hot Gulf this time of year for any period of time. Not very confident on how strong 93L may become as the models have just recently started showing this stronger trend. Overall things looks fairly favorable for development and development could be fairly quick.

Will continue to stress the very slow expect storm motion and potential for several days of impacts across the NW Gulf.

Impacts:

For now will temper back the model intensities, but follow closely the above mentioned track reasoning and let that help guide the expected impacts. Please understand that confidence is very low and significant changes will be likely over the next 2 days.

Rainfall:
Will start to see moisture increase on Thursday with scattered showers on the seabreeze, then bring rainbands into the coastal areas starting Friday. Will limit the western extent of the rainfall to the US 59 corridor for now. Should confidence build that the system will in fact move more W over the weekend, significant rain chances will be needed for all areas and totals will need to be raised. Widespread rainfall of 2-4 inches is possible S of US 59 Friday-Sunday and this could really be on the conservative side. HPC progs nail the offshore area with 8-12 inches over the weekend!

Tides:
Position of the surface center leads to a prolonged E fetch aimed at the upper TX coast with winds gradually increasing over the northern Gulf starting late Thursday. Large long period swells will begin to arrive on the coast by midday Friday and build into the weekend. Combined effects of large waves and fetch will result in some degree of coastal water level rise. Hard to pin down right now how much and where, but prolonged nature of this event could push a lot of water toward the coast over the weekend.

Winds:
Gradient will tighten into the weekend, how strong and how long is still up for debate, but could see at least TS force winds over the coastal waters starting late Friday and possibly lasting into much of the weekend. For now will not spread this wind inland much due to the uncertainty in the track, but as with the rainfall forecast above, if a westward track does develop, then winds will need to be increased over much of the area. Winds will likely back to the E following the seabreeze on Thursday afternoon and then back to the ENE and NE by Friday evening.

Residents along the TX and LA coasts should continue to closely monitor information on this developing tropical system.



*edited by southerngale to change the source from Jeff Masters to Jeff Lindner

[Radiogirltx]

Quote--_" HYBRID SUBTROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WITH
BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS"

Huh? Someone please explain in 2nd grade English. Lol!

It means that the developing system may contain some characteristics that are more typical of mid-latitude low pressure systems; that is, it may contain cold and warm fronts and large gradients of temperature in the horizontal (i.e. colder air on one side of the system and warmer air on the other side). A more typical tropical cyclone usually has no fronts associated with it, and has very little, if any temperature gradient from one side to the other.

It's more complicated than that, but that's the basic idea.

Got it. I hope I'm on the side with the cooler air. I'm so through with summer! Ha!

[TexWx]

Not Jeff Masters...

Jeff Linder