ckiggins wrote:Can someone explain to another newbie the complete differences in tracks?
I have been watching the following on Ryan Maue's site:
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/uv900atl_anim_16.html
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/ec850uva.html
The two models show incredibly different positions of the storm at 8 days. At what point do these become more accurate? 5 days out?
I am NOT a professional at all, but I can say this with relative certainty:
1) There are different computer models for a reason. Each of them have strengths and weaknesses. Many would argue that one is better than the other, but that is often personal opinion. Either way, as a result of their differences, they often suggest that a storm will take different paths, intensities, encounter different environments, and so forth.
2) It's hard to define "accurate." Are the models correct 24 hours out? Yeah, probably about 95% of the time. But then comes the question again: What is accurate? If a computer model has a 24-hour error of 20 miles when the hurricane is in the middle of the Atlantic, it's not so big a deal. What if the eye of a Cat-4 is pointed right at your home? Then a movement of 20 miles could be a HUGE deal. In the latter case, you might receive 120mph sustained winds instead of 70mph winds. To you, at that moment, the model was incredibly INaccurate.
I hope that all made sense.
