ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#681 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:36 am

There is the turn... 177 hours out.. a little farther west though from the 6z.. trough digging on east coast.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#682 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:37 am

And there she goes heading nw... Again just not enough ridgeing to drive it westward. Could pose a signifcant threat to bermuda though.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#683 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:39 am

GFS is not being very consistent here.. one run the trough is weak the next its a extremely amplified trough for early september.. not sure how this one will play out..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:

#684 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:40 am

12z GFS +192

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.

User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:

Re:

#685 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:42 am

Aric Dunn wrote:GFS is not being very consistent here.. one run the trough is weak the next its a extremely amplified trough for early september.. not sure how this one will play out..


yeah.. +204.. looks goofy.. 10 days is a long time.. but the synoptic is surely interesting
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#686 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:42 am

Ridge over the US has to be pretty darn strong to Push "Lee" SW into Mexico from LA.
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10146
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#687 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:44 am

Jimsot wrote:
Blown Away wrote:It does look a little S of the NHC track and any S relocations could bring Katia closer to the NE caribbean, but hard to deny the big hole in the ridge near 65W.



Since the 'hole' 'weakness' is at 65W and I am at 63W will it 'feel it' before getting to 63W because I really am not to keen on another Earl which kept going west last year until it was to late for us on Anguilla.


At this point nearly all the current modeling and NHC track go N of your area. Still 5+ days away from your longitude, so you gotta keep watching. The persistent weakness seems to be there in the models run after run, hard to ignore it.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#688 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:44 am

dwsqos2 wrote:Yes, I don't post images now because of the no hotlinking rules, and I'm too lazy to register at one of the free image hosting sites, but anyway here.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... MBds26.png


There are multiple easy ways to upload that do not require registration. From an image on your computer just use the imageshack buttons below the post window.

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Or you can just navigate to imageshack.us and paste the URL to make an image.

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

In either case, as a non registered user, use the forum code provided to copy and paste into your message.

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


The image you linked too:

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Saving images makes this thread readable later in the future. Thanks!
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

canes04
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 302
Joined: Sat May 22, 2004 5:41 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#689 Postby canes04 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:44 am

Big High coming off the EC. She may get trapped.
Need to see the next few runs.
0 likes   

Caribwxgirl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 287
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)

Re:

#690 Postby Caribwxgirl » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:45 am

caribepr wrote:From a friend of mine on Culebra:

Katia my dear,
I'm just not ready for a visit yet.. I know your headed this way, but I am just not over Irene.. I think you should head north, that way nobody gets hurt.. I've met this new girl Sunny 8-) and I want her to hang around for a while.. I fear you would scare her away.. Warmest regards, Matty


Too funny...But I know its quite serious you guys really don't need another TC so soon after Irene it would be waay too soon.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.

HurricaneWarning92
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 520
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:33 pm
Location: Pembroke Pines, S. Florida (Lat: 26.00N, Lon: 80.22W)

#691 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:48 am

wonder what the 12z Euro is gonna show...further west? we'll see.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Caribwxgirl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 287
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)

Re:

#692 Postby Caribwxgirl » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:50 am

Jevo wrote:12z GFS +96 (switched to a diff map for better pressure representation)

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/204/12zgfs500mbhghtpmsltropm.gif/]http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/4720/12zgfs500mbhghtpmsltropm.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

12z GFS +120 (Well hello Gulf of Mexico Low)

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/713/12zgfs500mbhghtpmsltroph.gif/]http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/6899/12zgfs500mbhghtpmsltroph.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


I saw the GOM Low on an earlier run this morning and wondered if I was seeing things since no one commented on it...guess that old ridge's time is up.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#693 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:50 am

Latest saved loop:

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#694 Postby clfenwi » Tue Aug 30, 2011 12:01 pm

12Z NOGAPS at 138h.... shift into the wrong side of 20/60

Image

Complete loop
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#695 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 30, 2011 12:05 pm

OT... Can someone give a quick instruction on how to save the "animated loops"
0 likes   

hipshot
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 591
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:18 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#696 Postby hipshot » Tue Aug 30, 2011 12:09 pm

[quote="tolakram"]Latest saved loop:

From that loop, is sure looks like it is tracking south of the forecast.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#697 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2011 12:09 pm

That loop above is from http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

When you look at an individual storm and turn on anigif there is an option to capture. Right click, saveas to save to my computer. imgur.com still allows animated gifs as long as they are smaller than 2MB. Other than that it's rather tedious. I've taken screenshots and used online gif creators to make animated gifs, then uploaded to imgur.com.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

#698 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Aug 30, 2011 12:18 pm

This thing already has the classic spiral arms.
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#699 Postby fci » Tue Aug 30, 2011 12:26 pm

Countrygirl911 wrote:can we clearly say that this thing is not going to get into the GOM we are already watching a little area in the gulf that our local mets are saying could form but not for certain it will they are just watching it.


Nothing is ever "clear" in the tropics but the chances of Katia getting to the GOM are quite small.
The homegrown system that local mets are talking about poses much more opportunity to give your area the much needed rain you are hoping for.
There is a thread on the possible future GOM system:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111653
0 likes   

User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#700 Postby meriland23 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 12:31 pm

Since Katia is tracking NNW now and is more likely to strengthen to a hurricane around 40-45W versus 50W, does this mean the storm will likely be a fish? Curving out too sea cause it formed too soon and not hit the east coast?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 32 guests