ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion
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There is the turn... 177 hours out.. a little farther west though from the 6z.. trough digging on east coast.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
And there she goes heading nw... Again just not enough ridgeing to drive it westward. Could pose a signifcant threat to bermuda though.
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GFS is not being very consistent here.. one run the trough is weak the next its a extremely amplified trough for early september.. not sure how this one will play out..
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:GFS is not being very consistent here.. one run the trough is weak the next its a extremely amplified trough for early september.. not sure how this one will play out..
yeah.. +204.. looks goofy.. 10 days is a long time.. but the synoptic is surely interesting
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Jimsot wrote:Blown Away wrote:It does look a little S of the NHC track and any S relocations could bring Katia closer to the NE caribbean, but hard to deny the big hole in the ridge near 65W.
Since the 'hole' 'weakness' is at 65W and I am at 63W will it 'feel it' before getting to 63W because I really am not to keen on another Earl which kept going west last year until it was to late for us on Anguilla.
At this point nearly all the current modeling and NHC track go N of your area. Still 5+ days away from your longitude, so you gotta keep watching. The persistent weakness seems to be there in the models run after run, hard to ignore it.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
dwsqos2 wrote:Yes, I don't post images now because of the no hotlinking rules, and I'm too lazy to register at one of the free image hosting sites, but anyway here.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... MBds26.png
There are multiple easy ways to upload that do not require registration. From an image on your computer just use the imageshack buttons below the post window.

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In either case, as a non registered user, use the forum code provided to copy and paste into your message.

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The image you linked too:

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Saving images makes this thread readable later in the future. Thanks!
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
Big High coming off the EC. She may get trapped.
Need to see the next few runs.
Need to see the next few runs.
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Re:
caribepr wrote:From a friend of mine on Culebra:
Katia my dear,
I'm just not ready for a visit yet.. I know your headed this way, but I am just not over Irene.. I think you should head north, that way nobody gets hurt.. I've met this new girl Sunnyand I want her to hang around for a while.. I fear you would scare her away.. Warmest regards, Matty
Too funny...But I know its quite serious you guys really don't need another TC so soon after Irene it would be waay too soon.
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wonder what the 12z Euro is gonna show...further west? we'll see.
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Re:
Jevo wrote:12z GFS +96 (switched to a diff map for better pressure representation)
[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/204/12zgfs500mbhghtpmsltropm.gif/]http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/4720/12zgfs500mbhghtpmsltropm.gif
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12z GFS +120 (Well hello Gulf of Mexico Low)
[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/713/12zgfs500mbhghtpmsltroph.gif/]http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/6899/12zgfs500mbhghtpmsltroph.gif
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I saw the GOM Low on an earlier run this morning and wondered if I was seeing things since no one commented on it...guess that old ridge's time is up.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Latest saved loop:


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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
[quote="tolakram"]Latest saved loop:
From that loop, is sure looks like it is tracking south of the forecast.
From that loop, is sure looks like it is tracking south of the forecast.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
That loop above is from http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
When you look at an individual storm and turn on anigif there is an option to capture. Right click, saveas to save to my computer. imgur.com still allows animated gifs as long as they are smaller than 2MB. Other than that it's rather tedious. I've taken screenshots and used online gif creators to make animated gifs, then uploaded to imgur.com.
When you look at an individual storm and turn on anigif there is an option to capture. Right click, saveas to save to my computer. imgur.com still allows animated gifs as long as they are smaller than 2MB. Other than that it's rather tedious. I've taken screenshots and used online gif creators to make animated gifs, then uploaded to imgur.com.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Countrygirl911 wrote:can we clearly say that this thing is not going to get into the GOM we are already watching a little area in the gulf that our local mets are saying could form but not for certain it will they are just watching it.
Nothing is ever "clear" in the tropics but the chances of Katia getting to the GOM are quite small.
The homegrown system that local mets are talking about poses much more opportunity to give your area the much needed rain you are hoping for.
There is a thread on the possible future GOM system:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111653
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Since Katia is tracking NNW now and is more likely to strengthen to a hurricane around 40-45W versus 50W, does this mean the storm will likely be a fish? Curving out too sea cause it formed too soon and not hit the east coast?
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