ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

An ASCAT pass at 1116Z placed the center between 11N and 12N and around 33W.

But you didn't post it.

[dwsqos2]

Yes, I don't post images now because of the no hotlinking rules, and I'm too lazy to register at one of the free image hosting sites, but anyway here.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... MBds26.png

[HurrMark]

The BAMS take it on a west to wsw track at the end of the run...

BAMS would probably be useless since this is expected to be a major hurricane by that point (BAMS is best used in the deep tropics for shallow or weak systems)

[RL3AO]

Here's said ASCAT image.

[CrazyC83]

That looks to be near 11N.

[Jevo]

12z GFS Initialized



Not going to start posting images until about 48+

[HurricaneWarning92]

A weak Bermuda High has saved us this year in Florida.

yep. But once there is a strong Bermuda High, Florida is practically a sitting duck and... we are screwed.

[cheezyWXguy]

The BAMS take it on a west to wsw track at the end of the run...

BAMS would probably be useless since this is expected to be a major hurricane by that point (BAMS is best used in the deep tropics for shallow or weak systems)

I think hes talking about the BAM suite in general, not the BAM shallow. Of course I could be wrong since I havent looked at the model plots yet this morning, too busy with classes.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Well with the current setup unless things change chances of seeing a CV system that is a TC get this far west with a weak ridge are less likely.

[bahamaswx]

No time to look at old posts. Which way have models been trending over the past day or two?

[terrapintransit]

More westward trending starting to show now per the spaghetti...

[Jevo]

More westward trending starting to show now per the spaghetti...

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... smodel.gif

12z is currently running... should have a new ensemble here in a little bit

[Jevo]

12z GFS +48



12z GFS +72

[Hurricane Jed]

1. 1871 Hurricane #4-Florida
2. 1893 Hurricane #6-South Carolina/Georgia
3. 1893 Hurricane #9-South Carolina
4. 1899 San Ciriaco Hurricane-North Carolina
5. 1906 Hurricane #5-South Carolina
6. 1915 Hurricane #2-Texas
7. 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane-Florida
8. 1938 New England Hurricane-Northeast U.S.
9. 1947 Florida Hurricane-Florida
10. 1952 Hurricane Able-South Carolina
11. 1960 Hurricane Donna-Florida Keys/Western Florida and pretty much the entire East Coast.
12. 1961 Hurricane Esther (Struck as tropical storm)-Maine
13. 1964 Hurricane Dora-Florida
14. 1979 Hurricane Frederic-Alabama
15. 1980 Hurricane Allen-Texas
16. 1981 Hurricane Dennis (Struck as tropical storm)-Florida
17. 1985 Hurricane Gloria-Northeast U.S.
18. 1989 Hurricane Hugo-South Carolina
19. 1996 Hurricane Bertha-North Carolina
20. 1996 Hurricane Fran-North Carolina
21. 1998 Hurricane Georges-Florida Keys/Mississippi
22. 2003 Hurricane Isabel-North Carolina
23. 2004 Hurricane Ivan-Alabama/Florida

The above is a list of all hurricanes/tropical storms to have made landfall in the U.S. (and where they made landfall(s)) that formed east or at the 35th meridian. Quite a few have hit the east coast and though the number of storms that have done so is small, Katia still has a chance. Early I know but can't rule anything out though I really really hope it stays out to sea.

[theweatherwatch]

Here is a link to my Model Breakdown #1 for Katia.
http://www.theweatherwatch.org/?p=86

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks......west.

[Jevo]

Looks......west.

72hours out West of 50 South of 20....

[KWT]

Well given the amount of years that we have data for, to only have 23 systems hit from this far east is pretty telling...I'm sure the hit ratio would be a little higher for the NE Caribbean mind you...

[fci]

A weak Bermuda High has saved us this year in Florida.

yep. But once there is a strong Bermuda High, Florida is practically a sitting duck and... we are screwed.

But luckily.....that doesn't happen very often.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +96 (switched to a diff map for better pressure representation)



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12z GFS +120 (Well hello Gulf of Mexico Low)



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