Kohlecane wrote:I know it's really early, but any threat for US on this one
Unfortunately, it's too early to tell. I would wait until it hits 55W to get a more accurate forecast. JMHO
ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Unfortunately, it's too early to tell. I would wait until it hits 55W to get a more accurate forecast. JMHO
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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bamajammer4eva
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
The westward trends in the models and this wording from the NHC makes this one definitely one to watch for the US and maybe even some of the islands.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W LONGITUDE. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER TIME. AS A
RESULT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
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Jevo
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18z GFS +24 (LoL here we go again)
18Z GFS +48
18Z GFS +48
Last edited by Jevo on Mon Aug 29, 2011 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SeminoleWind
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that FIM model is painting a Grimm possibility.
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bamajammer4eva
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Models
Bolebuns wrote:What is that in the Gulf at 168?
Looks like just some ole homebrew stuff
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111653
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Countrygirl911
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
hi out local mets are watching an area in the southern GOM is any of the models picking up on it.
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Hmm there does seem to be a slight west shift on the models overall, these things can pick up momentum once they get going, you only have to look at how far Irene shifted back east...and also for those with longer memories, how far Dean shifted west.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
What is funny from that map above is there is absolutly nothing that has tracked where the models currently seem to want to take it, its either a very early recurve or W/WNW towards the Caribbean and the states...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Jevo
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18Z GFS +72
18Z GFS + 96 (50W south of 20N)
18Z GFS + 96 (50W south of 20N)
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SootyTern
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Hi Countrygirl911 this thread is discussing a GOM homebrew
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111653&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111653&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
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painkillerr
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Re:
KWT wrote:What is funny from that map above is there is absolutly nothing that has tracked where the models currently seem to want to take it, its either a very early recurve or W/WNW towards the Caribbean and the states...
I agree. I enjoy all the forecasting and comments by everyone on this forum; and also all the models, maps, satellite images etc... that are posted here. But ultimately, these storms seem to have a mind of their own and they beat the models many times. Many are calling for a recurve (fish), but I'm watching this baby closely as she is moving west because my instincts and experience tell me that "Katia to be" could be trouble for us in the NE caribbean. IMHO
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jlauderdal
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Kohlecane wrote:I know it's really early, but any threat for US on this one
wxman57 says check back next monday,
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Jevo
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18z GFS +120
18z GFS +144
18z GFS +144
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Aric Dunn
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hmmm... this gfs run is going to be interesting... looking like it wont re-recurve. trough lifting out and ridge developing along wast coast as trough amplifies over the mid west..... for the first time this summer... no heat ridge....
18z
12z
18z
12z
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
What IF.....soon to be Katia missed the trough and headed to NOLA. Katia replaced Katrinia. Very unlikely but an interesting thought.
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Aric Dunn
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well maybe not.. although its another significant synoptic change for the GFS this run the amplified trough over midwest ends up swinging east eroding the ridging on the east coast.. so between 7 and 10 days.. looks like it will end up re curving. though after the trough it looks like there is a very large ridge that fills in... maybe a pattern change finally ?
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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Jevo
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Brent
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/4348/irenek.png
System tracks within 65 miles of TD12. There are some whoppers!
Yeah, like Ivan and Donna!
I find it very interesting there's none where the models have TD 12 going...
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#neversummer
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Jevo
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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