ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

[quote="gatorcane"]That is a big shift west:

Euro 12Z, 216 hours:

Still looks to be a re-curver, maybe a harmless pass between Bermuda and East coast. Here's hoping!

[JPmia]

I am detecting a trend that is not our friend.

[wxman57]

Yes, 12Z Euro does indicate a possible East U.S. Coast threat in 11-12 days. It did the best in the long term for Irene, so is it best for "Katia"? I'll let you know by next Monday.

[KWT]

Well that run is interesting, esp at the end, looks like its starting to Fujiwara between the E.Gulf low and TD12.

Way too far out for that idea yet but the general idea is for it to keep WNW for the time being.

Track from the 12z GFS ensembles looks broadly like Bill 09 and similar to some extent to Bill...also note how nearly all of them manage to keep the ssytem till the end of the run, increasing the confidence of this become a strong hurricane down the line.

[JPmia]

[quote="gatorcane"]12Z Euro at 240 hours:

What is that low pressure system over SW FL on this run? Is that tropical?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

From the maps Aric posted, I noticed one major thing and gatorcane also said earlier. The models are showing 12 moving wnw almost immediately, although it is still moving due west right now. Could be the models are developing this to fast thus gaining the latitude. If it stays on the weaker side or takes its time developing look for models to shift even further west with time. But on the opposite side could also see major shifts east like they did with Irene once they get ahold of the troughs dropping down.

[KWT]

Yeah probably, looks like it forms off a frontal boundary.

TD12 ends up becoming very powerful, though its worth saying the ECM overdid the strength of Irene...

[Evil Jeremy]

the consensus on the sfwmd plot is incredibly tight.

[SouthDadeFish]

29/1745 UTC 10.2N 27.6W T2.0/2.0 12L -- Atlantic

Not quite a TS yet according to Dvorak estimates.

[Aric Dunn]

Different loop of the Euro..showing a little more ridging and a weaker east coast trough.. but it does seem to be interacting with the other low that forms in the NE gulf and moves SE... very strange... its still very far out and that will likely change.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

[HurricaneWarning92]

notice the consensus models now.. showing it missing both troughs and bending back west north of PR and recurving later thats a significant shift from 00z .... Also notice the deep Bam

yeah the BAMD turns due west to wsw at the end of the run... wonder if its sniffing something..

[Jevo]

Yeah probably, looks like it forms off a frontal boundary.

TD12 ends up becoming very powerful, though its worth saying the ECM overdid the strength of Irene...

Yeah it pumped Irene to a 920/930 is storm

[KWT]

nah I agree doesn't quite look like a TS...still its got alot of time for that to happen yet!

ECM taken at face value is indeed a probable threat to the E.coast, but its a huge way out!

[Nimbus]

This years "climo" model might put TD 12 in with Brett,Emily, and Irene all tracking close by Florida's east coast. That would be steering consistent with this years mid Atlantic ridging and short waves rolling around the Texas death ridge.

Can we expect a pattern change for the Cape Verde type storms now that it is the end of August?

[cycloneye]

Will Earls track be a good analog for TD 12/Katia to move like this? I know the short term is not viable as is more lower in latitude than Earl that started a little below 15N. I remember the models initially had the tracks well east of the NE Caribbean.

[KWT]

I personally think maybe closer to Bill rather then Early at the moment Cycloneye.

[cycloneye]

This years "climo" model might put TD 12 in with Brett,Emily, and Irene all tracking close by Florida's east coast. That would be steering consistent with this years mid Atlantic ridging and short waves rolling around the Texas death ridge.

Can we expect a pattern change for the Cape Verde type storms now that it is the end of August?

That is a good question and that is why I moved the post from the models thread to the discussion thread.

[ROCK]

Yeah probably, looks like it forms off a frontal boundary.

TD12 ends up becoming very powerful, though its worth saying the ECM overdid the strength of Irene...

Yeah it pumped Irene to a 920/930 is storm

to be fair so did the GFDL and HWRF....the EURO is not wonderful at intensity and neither is any of the models for that matter. but track wise KING EURO rules them all....

[Jevo]

Yeah probably, looks like it forms off a frontal boundary.

TD12 ends up becoming very powerful, though its worth saying the ECM overdid the strength of Irene...

Yeah it pumped Irene to a 920/930 is storm

to be fair so did the GFDL and HWRF....the EURO is not wonderful at intensity and neither is any of the models for that matter. but track wise KING EURO rules them all....

LoL if you used GFDL and Euro in the same sentence in front of Joe Bastardi he would roid rage on you.. Heheh but to your point i do remember seeing the GFDL in the teens a few time... like 915

[Blown Away]

There is nothing that makes me think there will be enough ridging to push a developed TD12 into the Caribbean or to the CONUS.