ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Andrew92]

Not to alert or anything, but Donna and Ivan also formed not far from where Invest 92L is - and did so during this upcoming week. In fact, Donna's depression developed on August 29, when this looks like it may become one. That map above says one thing, but I wouldn't be so quick to call this a fish right now.

-Andrew92

[bamajammer4eva]

12z GFS Ensemble average has this coming ashore across the Carolinas during the evening of the 11th.

[FireRat]

Wow...Jose just slipped into the scene like a thief in the night! I guess Katia will be the storm coming out of 92L. Any chance it gets beat by another storm and becomes the "L" storm. It would be better if this potentially dangerous storm were named Lee so people don't freak out upon hearing such a KATRINA-like name....KATIA, man they just removed 3 letters from Katrina.

[FireRat]

For all the "fish"ermen aboard:

How about this name for a storm missing the US instead of fish:

NONUS.

[Hurricane Jed]

Well unless the next 6 storms including Jose become hurricanes my prediction of 15/7/4 is going down the tube.

[DCal2K]

Looks like a definite fish or atleast no possible U.S landing if it develops.

[gatorcane]

18z guidance:

[Florida1118]

Looks like a definite fish or atleast no possible U.S landing if it develops.

Still VERY far away from being definate...

[gatorcane]

Seems like the model guidance initializes the invest near 10N and not 8N.

Looking at the latest satellite loops, it appears the overall moisture envelope is heading due west or just south of due west.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

12z GFS Ensemble average has this coming ashore across the Carolinas during the evening of the 11th.

Ah damn

[cycloneye]

Near 100%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 T0 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[jlauderdal]

Seriously, after Irene I do not trust long range models at all. The only thing that can be contrived from these runs is that there will be a powerful hurricane in a week. This has the potential to hit anywhere or go out to sea. It hasn't even formed yet so it's impossible to say if this will be a fish.

it took irene for you to not trust long range models, . Seriously, 3 day is about max reliability on these things, 5 days for your viewing pleasure but buyer beware because we know at 5 days error is BIG..and for the person that said its a fish, well maybe but dont say that's your prediction from a 240h model run. This theory of being in the bullseye at 5 days continues to be a winner. I will stick with that idea until I lose power due to a tropical system.

All that said, irene has proven you dont need to be at the landfall to have problems, in fact landfall today was a great place to be compared to say upstate new york, Vermont, etc...that flooding isnt pretty and is much worse than any power outage, i lost power in wilma for 10 days and i will take that over flooding any day. In addition, guy goes into flood waters this afternoon and gets electrocuted trying to help some kid that was in the water. Flooding is extremely dangerous and expensive in dollars and life.

[DESTRUCTION5]

KATIA On her way...........Fish or no fish she is gonna look pretty on satellite.

[Swimdude]

Wow. Near 100% already. That was quick.

[Patrick99]

I was just going to mention Donna. I think that map is a little misleading, as there have been quite a few storms over the years that formed in that general vicinity, and ended up hitting the US.

We'll see what happens with 92L, if/when the NAO starts running positive or at least moves toward neutral. I just looked at the graph, and it's been negative since early June, pretty much when hurricane season started. That, and the Texas ridge off to the west, no wonder why the East Coast has been so trough-infested.

[AdamFirst]

Hello, soon to be Katia. Lets hope you're nowhere near as menacing as the name you replaced six years ago.

[tolakram]

Full disk multi sensor image (shift + mouse to zoom): http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... ESOLUTION/

Latest Image:

[otowntiger]

Seriously, after Irene I do not trust long range models at all. The only thing that can be contrived from these runs is that there will be a powerful hurricane in a week. This has the potential to hit anywhere or go out to sea. It hasn't even formed yet so it's impossible to say if this will be a fish.

Well actually given the very poor ability to forecast intensity I'd say that you can't even derive that with ANY degree of certaintly. The NHC can absolutely nail a track consistently from storm to storm within 3 or even 4 days, but intensity cannot seem to be forecasted from one hour to the next let alone 240 hours.

[hurricanebuoy]

If the models are right on intensity,this will climb bigtime the North Atlantic ACE much more than what Irene did.

What does ACE stand for and mean?

[otowntiger]

TD/TS develops in this area expect fish IMO.

That's pretty clear evidence that I wouldn't argue with. I know things can change but looking at that map it doesn't look like climo will favor this system being much of threat to any but shipping interests.