ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
If it developes fairly quickly as most models suggest i'd lean towards a quick recurve. Looks like a signifcant hurricane in the making.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Agree...it took Irene almost 2400 miles....to 60W before she got her act together...by then she was too far west to fade away without making a splash. The further east we can get these systems going, the more likely they are going to be influenced by upper-level steering troughs, and the more likely they are fish!
SFLcane wrote:If it developes fairly quickly as most models suggest i'd lean towards a quick recurve. Looks like a signifcant hurricane in the making.
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- expat2carib
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
After it withstands the poof test as our respected board member gustywind would say It looks like a player. It has my full attention.
It looks more 9.+ than 10+ I hope they manage to coordinate the coordinates
It looks more 9.+ than 10+ I hope they manage to coordinate the coordinates
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
jinftl wrote:Agree...it took Irene almost 2400 miles....to 60W before she got her act together...by then she was too far west to fade away without making a splash. The further east we can get these systems going, the more likely they are going to be influenced by upper-level steering troughs, and the more likely they are fish!SFLcane wrote:If it developes fairly quickly as most models suggest i'd lean towards a quick recurve. Looks like a signifcant hurricane in the making.
But several hurricanes developed well east of 50W among them Hugo and Georges to name two.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
wxman57 wrote:The ridge to its north should be a lot weaker than the ridge north of Irene, as is already quite evident by the lack of any significant SAL:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg
I think it will most likely track north of the Caribbean, though I won't rule out any impact at this time. Good chance it would recurve east of the U.S., but I'm wary of the Euro, which did such a good job with Irene 10 days out, taking this storm toward the eastern Bahamas in 10 days.
Indeed, there have be years when New England has had twins (1869 & 1954 spring to mind). I certainly hope this one stays away from the NE though. After Irene, and all her media hype, I need a rest (as I'm sure many do).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
With a possible WSW movement in the future we have some serious ridging taking place out in the MDR region which seems to back up the positive NAO report.Thus we still have to see if this movement plays out and if it does are the reports on the ridging in the W Atl. going to bear things out?And then the Death Ridge over TX moving W?Plenty of time to watch for sure.....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
No doubt, there are notable exceptions...but if a system develops near the cape verde, it is much more likely to never impact any land at hurricane intensity. From a blog post by Dr. Jeff Masters earlier this month, the graphic below shows a system developing near where 92L is has a 20%-30% chance of ever impacting land as a hurricane, compared to 50% up to 70% chance if it develops just east of the Islands.
"Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts."
"Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts."
cycloneye wrote:jinftl wrote:Agree...it took Irene almost 2400 miles....to 60W before she got her act together...by then she was too far west to fade away without making a splash. The further east we can get these systems going, the more likely they are going to be influenced by upper-level steering troughs, and the more likely they are fish!SFLcane wrote:If it developes fairly quickly as most models suggest i'd lean towards a quick recurve. Looks like a signifcant hurricane in the making.
But several hurricanes developed well east of 50W among them Hugo and Georges to name two.
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looking forward to the 12z Euro... will it still show a westward trend or does it show a more pronounced recurvature solution?... we shall see.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
12z GFS developes 2 capeverde cyclones and continues to recurve 92L north of the islands.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F28%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=region&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F28%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=region&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Closer to Bermuda on this 12z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
It looks like there is a small circulation at 10.5 with a broader.turning two degrees south..Which one dominates could have. important implications.
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
expat2carib wrote:After it withstands the poof test as our respected board member gustywind would say It looks like a player. It has my full attention.
It looks more 9.+ than 10+ I hope they manage to coordinate the coordinates
thanks my friend i appreciate your humor ! Merci for the congrats but i'm not so strong as a member called Superman by a board member . More seriously, we should have to watch it as its races west and the more west goes at low latitude... you have understand better than me what troubles could eventually happen for the islands... even if we're far away from any threat for the moment. Something to monitor during for the next couple of days. Let's wait and see!
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
BigA wrote:It looks like there is a small circulation at 10.5 with a broader.turning two degrees south..Which one dominates could have. important implications.
I would add "huge" implications for the NE Caribbean when a final latitude is established.
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Re:
southerngale wrote:gatorcane: Please upload the image, then post it. It's not showing up.
I used image shack for this, but if you press CTRL-C to soon to copy the direct link, it won't copy it...I fixed it.
Here is the 00Z UKMET, 120 hours:
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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