ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 280514
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 28/04:43:40Z
B. 37 deg 50 min N
075 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2702 m
D. 58 kt
E. 056 deg 6 nm
F. 146 deg 82 kt
G. 054 deg 95 nm
H. 958 mb
I. 8 C / 3047 m
J. 14 C / 3051 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 3409A IRENE OB 27
MAX FL WIND 94 KT E QUAD 03:57:40Z
;

[WxGuy1]

Washington DC has just reported its first observation of sustained tropical storm-force winds.

ob KDCA 280454Z 36036G50KT 3SM RA BKN021 BKN034 OVC055 23/20 A2915 RMK AO2 PK WND 36051/0448 P0034
At 12:54 am EDT, wind from the north at 36 kt (41 mph) gusting to 50 kt (58 mph). Pressure 29.15 inches Hg (987mb)

And now JFK International at New York has now reported its first TS force sustained (automated station, not a verified report), well in advance of the storm centre.

ob KJFK 280500Z AUTO 08034G44KT 2 1/2SM R04R/5000VP6000FT +RA BR BKN014 BKN019 OVC027 24/22 A2936 RMK AO2 PK WND 07044/0454 PRESFR P0006 TSNO
At 1 am EDT, wind from east (080 deg) at 34 kt (39 mph) gusting to 44 kt (51 mph). Pressure 29.36 inches Hg (994mb).

Seeing a similar (but non-automated) report from La Guardia of near-TS sustained:
ob KLGA 280451Z 07030G40KT 3SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN013 OVC020 23/22 A29.41 RMK PKWND 07040/0447 SLP959 P0051 T02330217 402390217
At 12:51 am EDT, wind from the east-northeast (070 deg) at 30 kt (35 mph) gusting to 40 kt (46 mph), pressure 29.41 inches Hg (996mb).

Out of curiosity, what were the peak winds around NYC during the Nor'Easters and blizzards they experienced this past winter? It seemed like the northeast was seeing huge Nor'easters every week or two this winter, and, if I recall correctly, some of them had >50 kt winds observed. However, since I don't live in the area, I don't recall if there problems with coastal flooding or wind damage from those storms. I certainly imagine there was significant power line damage, if nothing else.

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 27

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 05:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 34
Observation Number: 27
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 4:43:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 37°50'N 75°06'W (37.8333N 75.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 39 miles (62 km) to the S (182°) from Ocean City, MD, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,702m (8,865ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 82kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 94.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 95 nautical miles (109 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 958mb (28.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the east quadrant at 3:57:40Z

[Dave]

229
URNT15 KNHC 280515
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 55 20110828
050530 3819N 07444W 6967 02841 9691 +095 //// 137048 049 046 008 01
050600 3818N 07446W 6965 02839 //// +093 //// 137046 046 047 009 01
050630 3816N 07447W 6966 02837 9680 +103 //// 138048 049 043 007 01
050700 3814N 07448W 6971 02821 9674 +101 //// 137049 049 043 007 01
050730 3813N 07450W 6965 02826 9668 +101 //// 136048 048 044 007 01
050800 3811N 07451W 6967 02817 9657 +104 //// 135044 046 048 008 01
050830 3810N 07452W 6967 02801 9646 +105 //// 135042 043 050 009 01
050900 3808N 07454W 6966 02799 9637 +105 //// 135043 044 048 007 01
050930 3807N 07455W 6961 02797 9631 +101 //// 132041 042 045 008 01
051000 3805N 07456W 6965 02786 9620 +101 //// 131040 041 046 009 01
051030 3803N 07458W 6963 02776 9612 +094 //// 128036 038 045 008 01
051100 3802N 07459W 6973 02752 9588 +096 //// 123029 031 044 006 01
051130 3800N 07501W 6970 02749 9576 +116 //// 121017 022 049 001 01
051200 3758N 07502W 6966 02747 9561 +125 //// 145006 009 055 011 05
051230 3757N 07503W 6966 02748 9563 +118 //// 273005 009 033 006 01
051300 3755N 07504W 6967 02753 9564 +126 //// 296016 020 029 000 01
051330 3753N 07505W 6967 02756 9573 +123 //// 295028 034 038 001 01
051400 3752N 07506W 6967 02767 9586 +119 //// 297039 041 045 003 01
051430 3750N 07508W 6966 02778 //// +111 //// 299040 042 033 001 01
051500 3748N 07509W 6966 02787 //// +112 //// 301043 044 033 000 01
$$
;

[mf_dolphin]

Buoy at the entrance to NY Harbor.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=EDT

Wave height already over 13 ft.

[Dave]

[fci]

Don't be too tough. I don't like bashing the media but I also know hours of coverage without a lot of (new) substance gets old. I'm sure the person who posted isn't downplaying the casualties.

There are so many different views of that statement and I think it is way to easy to make bold statements on the many sides of this issue and there ARE many sides.

- Earlier this week there was a lot of talk about Irene emulating the specials on Storm of the Century or It Could Happen Tomorrow. This was an overstatement of the impact of Irene but with the storm threatening 60 million people or so the comparisons and the hype by the media was inevitable
- The media is not catering to those who are really in know, people like the majority of us who frequent S2K.
- A Tropical Storm can cause a lot of damage which Irene is proving
- For people like us; calling Irene a Hurricane is intuitively incorrect since we are so familiar with the particulars and parameters of a storm and it appears that the NHC is stretching the definition.
- For the General Public, the ones who truly face the most danger due to inexperience and ignorance in dealing with storms, the phrase "Tropical Storm" probably carries little weight and they may not even know what it means.
- The word "Hurricane" connotes a dangerous situation and those not in the know, do remember pictures from Hurricanes, mostly the most devastating ones like Katrina. So, when they are told that HURRICANE Irene threatens them, they are apt to pay attention and do the common sense things necessary to be safe. I'm afraid if they were told TROPICAL STORM Irene was coming, they would probably not care and not protect themselves or pay attention.
- So, the NHC pretty much HAS to maintain the title Hurricane even if those of us on S2K know it probably isn't technically at that level
- Also, by maintaining the title HURRICANE, the media will continue to cover the storm and people will still take cover and do the right common sense things.

While I have not read the history of posts by this member, I highly doubt that they are purposely being insensitive to those who suffered losses from Irene. Really......do any of you really believe that this poster does not care?
I mean, come on, tossing out criticism to the poster that insinuate that they don't care about loss of life is a but melodramatic.

Conversely, posting questions about media hype NOW, while Tropical Storm conditions, flooding, tornadoes and moderate wind damage with downed, dangerous power lines and life threatening surf conditions; is simply poor, ill-advised timing on the poster's part.

Maybe people just need to take a deep breath and then think a little harder before clicking on the "SUBMIT" button (on both sides of this issue)

Back to lurking for me and prayers to those who have suffered from Irene and wishes for safety to those still in the path.

[jinftl]

On 12/26/10, JFK Airport gusted to 59 mph.

On 2/19/11, JFK Airport gusted to 60 mph.

So winds as of 1am are in the range of the peak gusts from 2 of the storms this past winter....the question is, how much higher will they go this morning?

Out of curiosity, what were the peak winds around NYC during the Nor'Easters and blizzards they experienced this past winter? It seemed like the northeast was seeing huge Nor'easters every week or two this winter, and, if I recall correctly, some of them had >50 kt winds observed. However, since I don't live in the area, I don't recall if there problems with coastal flooding or wind damage from those storms. I certainly imagine there was significant power line damage, if nothing else.

[Dave]

082
URNT15 KNHC 280525
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 56 20110828
051530 3747N 07510W 6967 02794 //// +111 //// 299043 044 035 003 01
051600 3745N 07512W 6963 02806 9635 +113 //// 297043 044 037 000 01
051630 3743N 07513W 6967 02808 9640 +115 //// 296045 046 038 000 01
051700 3742N 07515W 6967 02819 9647 +112 //// 292046 046 039 002 01
051730 3740N 07516W 6966 02828 //// +111 //// 293045 046 040 002 01
051800 3739N 07517W 6967 02829 //// +109 //// 295046 046 040 001 01
051830 3737N 07519W 6963 02844 //// +109 //// 296046 047 038 000 01
051900 3736N 07520W 6969 02841 //// +105 //// 297048 048 037 000 01
051930 3734N 07521W 6967 02845 //// +105 //// 298050 051 036 000 01
052000 3733N 07523W 6966 02853 //// +101 //// 297051 052 037 000 01
052030 3731N 07524W 6969 02853 //// +106 //// 298052 053 036 000 01
052100 3730N 07525W 6966 02861 9704 +107 //// 292052 053 033 001 01
052130 3728N 07526W 6959 02882 9720 +105 //// 288052 054 /// /// 05
052200 3726N 07525W 6972 02868 9709 +113 //// 281054 054 038 001 05
052230 3725N 07523W 6970 02863 9705 +115 //// 277054 055 038 000 01
052300 3724N 07520W 6965 02877 9708 +115 //// 276055 055 038 001 05
052330 3723N 07517W 6965 02874 9702 +116 //// 272054 054 039 000 05
052400 3723N 07514W 6967 02871 9704 +115 //// 267055 055 038 000 01
052430 3724N 07511W 6963 02871 9702 +115 //// 267056 056 037 000 01
052500 3724N 07508W 6966 02870 9701 +115 //// 267056 056 037 001 01
$$
;

[Chacor]

Out of curiosity, what were the peak winds around NYC during the Nor'Easters and blizzards they experienced this past winter? It seemed like the northeast was seeing huge Nor'easters every week or two this winter, and, if I recall correctly, some of them had >50 kt winds observed. However, since I don't live in the area, I don't recall if there problems with coastal flooding or wind damage from those storms. I certainly imagine there was significant power line damage, if nothing else.

Wikipedia says NYC saw gusts up to 60 mph in the December blizzard.

[Mello1]

@nbcwashington
NBCWashington #dcirene RT @rgmoss: the scene on Capitol hill http://yfrog.com/mf4e9cj

Large tree down in DC neighborhood and roof of house sticking straight up in the air.

[Mello1]

@twc_hurricane
Hurricane Central Several road closures from flooding in Queens and Westchester Co., NY. Including Bronx River Pkwy. in Westchester and Belt Pkwy. in Queens.

[Dave]

[Mello1]

@NBCNewYork
NBC New York Mayor's office closing 3 bridges in Rockaways: Crossbay, Broad Channel, Marine Parkway. #Queens #NYC #Irene

[Mello1]

@twc_hurricane
Hurricane Central Interstate 95 closed at exit 30 due to flooding in Bridgeport, CT

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 280532
97779 05244 10374 7520/ 30500 27056 1212/ /3829
RMK AF304 3409A IRENE OB 32
SWS = 37 KTS
;

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 280531
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 28/05:12:20Z
B. 37 deg 58 min N
075 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2708 m
D. 49 kt
E. 040 deg 15 nm
F. 138 deg 53 kt
G. 040 deg 31 nm
H. EXTRAP 957 mb
I. 10 C / 3049 m
J. 13 C / 3038 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 3409A IRENE OB 31
MAX FL WIND 94 KT E QUAD 03:57:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 56 KT S QUAD 05:24:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
;

[Dave]

133
URNT15 KNHC 280535
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 57 20110828
052530 3724N 07508W 6966 02870 9707 +111 //// 265055 055 037 000 05
052600 3725N 07501W 6965 02875 //// +106 //// 262054 056 036 001 05
052630 3727N 07500W 6967 02863 //// +105 //// 259052 054 034 001 05
052700 3729N 07500W 6968 02855 //// +105 //// 258052 052 035 000 01
052730 3731N 07500W 6966 02853 9695 +105 //// 258051 052 035 001 01
052800 3733N 07500W 6964 02848 9691 +104 //// 256051 051 037 000 01
052830 3735N 07500W 6970 02834 9681 +105 //// 256049 050 038 000 01
052900 3737N 07500W 6963 02832 9674 +103 //// 255048 049 039 000 01
052930 3740N 07500W 6967 02825 9668 +105 //// 256049 049 039 001 01
053000 3742N 07500W 6965 02824 9656 +109 //// 255049 049 039 000 01
053030 3744N 07500W 6968 02813 9640 +118 //// 254047 049 039 000 01
053100 3746N 07500W 6966 02806 9630 +119 //// 256044 045 040 000 01
053130 3748N 07500W 6973 02790 9624 +115 //// 261043 044 040 000 01
053200 3750N 07500W 6963 02793 9616 +115 //// 264042 043 038 000 01
053230 3752N 07500W 6971 02772 9609 +110 //// 266041 041 037 000 01
053300 3754N 07500W 6964 02774 9593 +117 //// 269040 041 038 001 01
053330 3757N 07500W 6965 02765 9583 +118 //// 269034 037 032 001 01
053400 3759N 07500W 6965 02757 9573 +124 //// 259022 025 031 003 01
053430 3801N 07500W 6967 02750 9563 +128 //// 253012 015 032 002 05
053500 3803N 07501W 6967 02750 9571 +119 //// 240004 008 028 007 05
$$
;

[summersquall]

Couple qs:

1. Any way to approximate when the storm surge will hit certain areas?

2. Any predicted storm surge maps for the nj coast? Gf lives in belmar (evacuated, but they're already getting pounded and flooded there and the worst hasn't even come yet).

I did a search on SLOSH models because I know people have been posting about them, but I didn't find a link for you, just this:

petit_bois Wrote:
Can someone help me find the slosh models for the New Jersey to New England area?
Thanks...

Look through the Irene Discussion thread from page 295 and beyond. There are examples there.

Scroll all the way down to the bottom for New England
http://blog.myfoxhurricane.com/index.ph ... ew-england

[Dave]