ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Mello1]

twc_hurricane
Hurricane Central Last advisory indicates the water level at the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel reached near the record level established during Isabel (2003)

[AdamFirst]

193
URNT15 KNHC 280305
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 42 20110828
025530 3724N 07502W 6963 02779 9608 +110 //// 168059 060 049 002 01
025600 3723N 07503W 6967 02773 9599 +112 //// 171056 057 051 003 01
025630 3722N 07505W 6963 02764 9593 +112 //// 173054 054 049 003 05
025700 3722N 07507W 6969 02752 9577 +116 //// 174053 056 050 002 01
025730 3721N 07509W 6969 02740 9559 +120 //// 177045 050 047 002 01
025800 3721N 07511W 6967 02732 9550 +123 //// 184033 036 044 003 05
025830 3721N 07513W 6967 02731 9540 +127 //// 189025 028 039 005 01
025900 3721N 07515W 6967 02730 9533 +130 //// 198015 018 027 003 05
025930 3721N 07517W 6967 02727 9537 +129 //// 204007 010 021 003 01
030000 3722N 07519W 6969 02730 9545 +125 //// 355005 010 023 003 01
030030 3722N 07521W 6966 02737 9552 +123 //// 013015 017 029 006 01
030100 3723N 07524W 6966 02746 9574 +116 //// 003021 023 033 007 05
030130 3722N 07526W 6959 02779 9587 +118 //// 349028 030 /// /// 05
030200 3720N 07525W 6961 02776 9579 +124 //// 327029 030 /// /// 05
030230 3720N 07523W 6973 02738 9562 +123 //// 311023 026 027 003 05
030300 3720N 07521W 6963 02742 9548 +128 //// 292018 019 028 003 01
030330 3721N 07518W 6969 02732 9540 +130 //// 263017 018 025 002 01
030400 3721N 07516W 6967 02731 9535 +130 //// 230021 024 028 001 01
030430 3721N 07513W 6967 02730 9536 +130 //// 216029 032 036 001 01
030500 3721N 07511W 6969 02734 9545 +126 //// 207038 041 045 002 01
$$
;

[CronkPSU]

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)

[Dave]

[brunota2003]

Good grief...I didn't say that I did or didn't think she was still a hurricane, just that I hadn't seen anything to support it, based off of flight level and dropsonde observations (and surface, as well).

Also, the 66 knots was in an area of heavy rain (025mm). Even Tropical Storms can have massive impacts.

[AdamFirst]

175
URNT12 KNHC 280312
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 28/02:59:50Z
B. 37 deg 22 min N
075 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2691 m
D. 53 kt
E. 075 deg 21 nm
F. 165 deg 91 kt
G. 065 deg 95 nm
H. 955 mb
I. 10 C / 3054 m
J. 13 C / 3049 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 3409A IRENE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 91 KT NE QUAD 02:27:50Z
;


_________________________




273
UZNT13 KNHC 280313
XXAA 78037 99381 70737 11683 99984 24633 13050 00644 ///// /////
92539 22614 15071 85271 17407 15576 70914 09803 16086 88999 77999
31313 09608 80231
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 20
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 3815N07380W 0235 MBL WND 14063 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 15575 983696 WL150 13557 083 REL 3807N07374W 023121 SPG 3815N0
7379W 023530 =
XXBB 78038 99381 70737 11683 00984 24633 11936 21614 22927 22614
33850 17407 44754 13208 55745 11209 66708 12610 77696 08400
21212 00984 13050 11964 14064 22946 14064 33898 15077 44850 15576
55696 16084
31313 09608 80231
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 20
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 3815N07380W 0235 MBL WND 14063 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 15575 983696 WL150 13557 083 REL 3807N07374W 023121 SPG 3815N0
7379W 023530 =
;


I'll do one more HDOB but I have to run after that

[AdamFirst]

043
URNT15 KNHC 280315
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 43 20110828
030530 3721N 07509W 6965 02745 9559 +122 //// 203046 050 048 001 01
030600 3721N 07506W 6969 02751 9569 +122 //// 198057 060 047 001 01
030630 3721N 07504W 6965 02767 9581 +119 //// 194061 062 050 002 01
030700 3721N 07502W 6967 02769 //// +115 //// 196060 061 050 002 01
030730 3721N 07500W 6967 02779 //// +115 //// 194062 063 049 002 01
030800 3721N 07457W 6966 02791 //// +112 //// 192062 062 051 001 01
030830 3721N 07455W 6966 02799 //// +109 //// 189063 064 051 002 01
030900 3721N 07453W 6968 02805 9637 +112 //// 188065 065 051 001 01
030930 3721N 07451W 6969 02808 //// +110 //// 185066 067 051 002 01
031000 3721N 07449W 6966 02820 //// +110 //// 185067 067 051 002 01
031030 3721N 07446W 6968 02823 9661 +110 //// 186070 071 050 001 01
031100 3721N 07444W 6969 02828 9667 +107 //// 186071 072 051 001 01
031130 3721N 07442W 6965 02840 9679 +108 //// 187070 070 051 002 01
031200 3721N 07440W 6969 02840 9683 +110 //// 186070 070 052 002 01
031230 3721N 07438W 6967 02846 9687 +110 //// 185069 070 053 001 01
031300 3721N 07436W 6967 02851 9692 +108 //// 185070 073 052 001 01
031330 3721N 07434W 6963 02861 9703 +103 //// 185074 075 053 004 01
031400 3721N 07431W 6967 02862 9701 +111 //// 184075 075 053 002 01
031430 3721N 07429W 6971 02863 9710 +108 //// 186074 074 052 002 01
031500 3721N 07427W 6964 02873 9716 +107 //// 186073 074 052 003 01
$$
;


Gotta run...someone else take the torch

[Recurve]

Good grief...I didn't say that I did or didn't think she was still a hurricane, just that I hadn't seen anything to support it, based off of flight level and dropsonde observations (and surface, as well).

Also, the 66 knots was in an area of heavy rain (025mm). Even Tropical Storms can have massive impacts.

It's all good. I don't think Jevo was slammin you. Just sayin it's a close call, though the data is less than Cat 1 from what you say. You been here long enough to know people respond and give another view, not to say you're wrong.

I'm afraid for some of the effects still. The tornado in delaware hit a friend's town, 15 or 16 houses damaged.

[Dave]

[TropicalWXMA]

Is it just me or does Irene look VERY circular and symmetrical (more or less) right now?

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

Might have something to do with losing KDIX NEXRAD.

[brunota2003]

Good grief...I didn't say that I did or didn't think she was still a hurricane, just that I hadn't seen anything to support it, based off of flight level and dropsonde observations (and surface, as well).

Also, the 66 knots was in an area of heavy rain (025mm). Even Tropical Storms can have massive impacts.

It's all good. I don't think Jevo was slammin you. Just sayin it's a close call, though the data is less than Cat 1 from what you say. You been here long enough to know people respond and give another view, not to say you're wrong.

I'm afraid for some of the effects still. The tornado in delaware hit a friend's town, 15 or 16 houses damaged.

I know. I think the main factors to keeping it a hurricane are to keep people on their toes (so they don't fall into that mentality), as well as any increase in convection very easily could bring those stronger winds to the surface. Perhaps also, they are considering what the high rises will have to deal with, as well? Those winds could easily be 75 or 80+ mph.

[maxintensity]

Good grief...I didn't say that I did or didn't think she was still a hurricane, just that I hadn't seen anything to support it, based off of flight level and dropsonde observations (and surface, as well).

Also, the 66 knots was in an area of heavy rain (025mm). Even Tropical Storms can have massive impacts.

SFMR, FL, and 954mb says this is not a tropical storm.

[WxGuy1]

I have never in my lifetime seen a storm that looks better developed over land.... Irene is a crazy... !@#$@#

What storm was it a few years ago that still had a clearly defined eye when it hit Oklahoma? Was that Rita?

That was Erin... I uploaded a radar image of Erin as it reintensified into a strong tropical storm over Oklahoma. [Yes, the NHC officially did not consider it a tropical cyclone, but it looked much more like a tropical cyclone than some of the depressions and tropical storms we've seen over water!] -> see here. Earlier in the overnight hours before that image was collected, winds were sustained at 60-70 mph northwest of Oklahoma City.

It's not terribly surprising to see more intense convection in the north and west parts of Irene vs the south and east parts. As the air rotates around the center of Irene, on the north side of the circulation, there will be enhanced low-level convergence as it is forced to slow down over land (as a result of frictional/turbulence effects). The air near the surface essentially "piles up" in that area, and it is forced to rise. Meanwhile, to the south and southwest of the center of circulation, air that is being slowed by friction over land then speeds up as it moves back over the ocean. This, in turn, leads to some divergence in the lower troposphere, which tends to create downward motion (or weakens the upward motion). This isn't always the case since there are many different processes and aspects involved, but it's one reason why Irene may contain more precip and colder cloud tops on IR in the N and W parts of its circulation compared to the S and E parts.

Again, the vast majority of locations being affected by Irene will only see tropical depression or tropical storm force winds tonight. There have been relatively few hurricane-force wind reports today, and most locations more than 20-30 miles from the coast are only reporting tropical depression-strength sustained winds, though there are a few that will occasionally report weak tropical storm-force winds (35-45 kts). Peak wind gusts, as always, are higher. So, this isn't to say that there's no wind damage potential!

EDIT: You can't really use minimum central pressure to justify whether a tropical cyclone is a hurricane or a tropical storm when you have actual measurements/observations [either collected in situ (e.g. recon aircraft or surface weather station observations) or via remote sensing platforms (e.g. radar or satellite)]. Irene is huge, with an expansive tropical storm wind field, so you'd expect that the central pressure would have to be anomalously low. In addition, the reduction from flight level to surface winds has been anomalously low today. I've only seen Cat 1 wind reports today (up to 85 mph sustained by a storm chaser), and the vast majority of surface obs have shown peak winds well weaker than hurricane force. That's not to diminish the significance of Irene -- it's just stating the facts.

Inland flooding remains a significant concern, as does coastal flooding from wave and surge action. In addition, there is the danger from falling trees and broken branches. Finally, we can't forget about the threat for tornadoes, perhaps particularly tomorrow when the front-right quad of Irene (that is, the northeast part in this case) moves over land areas (MA/CT/RI/southern ME/eastern Long Island).

[Mello1]

@twc_hurricane
Hurricane Central Bands of rain that triggered tornado warnings in Philadelphia also dumped very heavy rain. Philly Int'l reported 1.12" in 39 minutes.

[Dave]

Where can I get the decoded dropsonde messages?

Adam I pull the decoded ones from here:

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

They update as the hdobs come in or just hit refresh for the latest.

[Dave]

548
URNT15 KNHC 280325
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 44 20110828
031530 3721N 07425W 6969 02871 9722 +107 //// 187073 074 051 004 01
031600 3721N 07422W 6961 02886 9726 +107 //// 186072 072 051 002 01
031630 3721N 07420W 6971 02878 9730 +108 //// 185072 073 052 001 01
031700 3721N 07418W 6970 02881 9734 +105 //// 185072 072 051 001 01
031730 3721N 07416W 6965 02893 9737 +108 //// 184073 074 051 002 01
031800 3721N 07413W 6963 02900 9737 +111 //// 184075 075 052 000 01
031830 3721N 07411W 6973 02893 9742 +113 //// 184074 074 053 001 01
031900 3721N 07409W 6965 02906 9746 +113 //// 185073 073 051 000 01
031930 3721N 07407W 6966 02910 9749 +111 //// 185073 074 051 002 01
032000 3721N 07405W 6966 02910 9761 +105 //// 185075 076 052 002 01
032030 3721N 07402W 6966 02916 9767 +105 //// 186074 075 051 001 01
032100 3721N 07400W 6966 02916 9773 +103 //// 185073 073 051 001 01
032130 3721N 07358W 6966 02922 9772 +105 //// 186074 074 050 002 01
032200 3721N 07356W 6967 02925 9781 +101 //// 188075 076 049 003 01
032230 3721N 07353W 6966 02924 9789 +094 //// 188076 077 050 002 01
032300 3721N 07351W 6967 02927 9781 +105 //// 188075 076 050 001 01
032330 3721N 07349W 6966 02931 9786 +104 //// 189075 075 051 000 05
032400 3721N 07347W 6967 02935 9784 +110 //// 190075 075 052 001 01
032430 3721N 07344W 6966 02937 9785 +110 //// 189075 075 052 001 01
032500 3720N 07342W 6967 02941 9789 +110 +109 189073 074 053 002 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Jevo]

Good grief...I didn't say that I did or didn't think she was still a hurricane, just that I hadn't seen anything to support it, based off of flight level and dropsonde observations (and surface, as well).

Also, the 66 knots was in an area of heavy rain (025mm). Even Tropical Storms can have massive impacts.

It's all good. I don't think Jevo was slammin you. Just sayin it's a close call, though the data is less than Cat 1 from what you say. You been here long enough to know people respond and give another view, not to say you're wrong.

I'm afraid for some of the effects still. The tornado in delaware hit a friend's town, 15 or 16 houses damaged.

I know. I think the main factors to keeping it a hurricane are to keep people on their toes (so they don't fall into that mentality), as well as any increase in convection very easily could bring those stronger winds to the surface. Perhaps also, they are considering what the high rises will have to deal with, as well? Those winds could easily be 75 or 80+ mph.

yessir my rant was indeed not pointed at you or your analysis... more along the lines of the psyche of the average joe in this situation

[kf154]

@twc_hurricane
Hurricane Central Bands of rain that triggered tornado warnings in Philadelphia also dumped very heavy rain. Philly Int'l reported 1.12" in 39 minutes.

I'm in Philly, very heavy rain.... Nut jobs across the street partying in the streets. Lights flickering, no power outages, yet.

[Recurve]

She is a fascinating system, ol' Irene.

A bit from memory: The last Irene was a TS that caught Miami and Broward County off guard, supposed to go up the west coast of Florida, passed Key West and jogged to within about 30 miles of the east coast. All the schools and businesses had to scramble, sent everybody home at like noon, so thousands of us were driving home in some freakin scary TS conditions.

I hope the New York area doesn't get a surprise, like those higher winds finally mixing down to the surface. When Irene unwinds I think there may be some streaks of damage far from the center.