ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion
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Dave
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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AdamFirst
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon
680
URNT15 KNHC 280237
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 39 20110828
022530 3813N 07327W 6955 03014 9872 +096 //// 166084 085 046 001 05
022600 3813N 07328W 6963 03002 9867 +095 //// 168083 083 047 002 01
022630 3812N 07330W 6949 03015 9858 +099 //// 166086 088 049 001 01
022700 3811N 07331W 6960 02998 9856 +098 +095 165089 089 049 002 00
022730 3810N 07333W 6960 02998 9854 +098 +095 165090 091 049 005 00
022800 3810N 07334W 6952 03002 9859 +084 //// 163076 087 047 006 05
022830 3809N 07336W 6969 02989 9866 +084 //// 159081 085 052 009 01
022900 3808N 07337W 6957 02993 9869 +085 //// 160086 086 050 000 01
022930 3807N 07339W 6957 02990 9865 +085 //// 161086 087 051 001 05
023000 3806N 07340W 6963 02983 9860 +085 //// 160086 086 049 001 01
023030 3806N 07342W 6953 02990 9861 +081 //// 159086 086 048 001 01
023100 3805N 07343W 6957 02984 9857 +081 //// 162086 087 047 001 01
023130 3804N 07345W 6962 02974 9852 +085 //// 159083 084 047 000 01
023200 3803N 07347W 6956 02980 9850 +084 //// 158079 082 048 001 01
023230 3802N 07348W 6958 02975 9841 +085 //// 157079 081 048 001 01
023300 3801N 07350W 6956 02971 9833 +090 //// 155074 075 049 002 01
023330 3801N 07351W 6959 02968 9828 +093 //// 155070 071 050 001 01
023400 3800N 07353W 6956 02965 9826 +088 //// 155065 065 051 003 01
023430 3759N 07355W 6957 02960 //// +081 //// 155064 064 050 003 01
023500 3758N 07356W 6960 02961 //// +078 //// 157064 064 051 005 01
$$
;
____________
787
UZNT13 KNHC 280231
XXAA 78027 99382 70739 11683 99985 21073 12052 00631 ///// /////
92539 18875 13580 85260 16275 15566 70911 12219 15580 88999 77999
31313 09608 80217
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 19
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 3832N07397W 0221 MBL WND 13066 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 14573 984696 WL150 12562 084 REL 3824N07390W 021702 SPG 3832N0
7397W 022127 =
XXBB 78028 99382 70739 11683 00985 21073 11850 16275 22808 15075
33749 17277 44727 19278 55710 22058 66696 08000
21212 00985 12052 11981 12559 22969 13067 33950 13070 44942 13065
55934 13570 66925 13580 77907 14073 88894 14078 99872 14570 11860
15575 22850 15566 33746 15088 44696 15580
31313 09608 80217
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 19
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 3832N07397W 0221 MBL WND 13066 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 14573 984696 WL150 12562 084 REL 3824N07390W 021702 SPG 3832N0
7397W 022127 =
;
URNT15 KNHC 280237
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 39 20110828
022530 3813N 07327W 6955 03014 9872 +096 //// 166084 085 046 001 05
022600 3813N 07328W 6963 03002 9867 +095 //// 168083 083 047 002 01
022630 3812N 07330W 6949 03015 9858 +099 //// 166086 088 049 001 01
022700 3811N 07331W 6960 02998 9856 +098 +095 165089 089 049 002 00
022730 3810N 07333W 6960 02998 9854 +098 +095 165090 091 049 005 00
022800 3810N 07334W 6952 03002 9859 +084 //// 163076 087 047 006 05
022830 3809N 07336W 6969 02989 9866 +084 //// 159081 085 052 009 01
022900 3808N 07337W 6957 02993 9869 +085 //// 160086 086 050 000 01
022930 3807N 07339W 6957 02990 9865 +085 //// 161086 087 051 001 05
023000 3806N 07340W 6963 02983 9860 +085 //// 160086 086 049 001 01
023030 3806N 07342W 6953 02990 9861 +081 //// 159086 086 048 001 01
023100 3805N 07343W 6957 02984 9857 +081 //// 162086 087 047 001 01
023130 3804N 07345W 6962 02974 9852 +085 //// 159083 084 047 000 01
023200 3803N 07347W 6956 02980 9850 +084 //// 158079 082 048 001 01
023230 3802N 07348W 6958 02975 9841 +085 //// 157079 081 048 001 01
023300 3801N 07350W 6956 02971 9833 +090 //// 155074 075 049 002 01
023330 3801N 07351W 6959 02968 9828 +093 //// 155070 071 050 001 01
023400 3800N 07353W 6956 02965 9826 +088 //// 155065 065 051 003 01
023430 3759N 07355W 6957 02960 //// +081 //// 155064 064 050 003 01
023500 3758N 07356W 6960 02961 //// +078 //// 157064 064 051 005 01
$$
;
____________
787
UZNT13 KNHC 280231
XXAA 78027 99382 70739 11683 99985 21073 12052 00631 ///// /////
92539 18875 13580 85260 16275 15566 70911 12219 15580 88999 77999
31313 09608 80217
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 19
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 3832N07397W 0221 MBL WND 13066 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 14573 984696 WL150 12562 084 REL 3824N07390W 021702 SPG 3832N0
7397W 022127 =
XXBB 78028 99382 70739 11683 00985 21073 11850 16275 22808 15075
33749 17277 44727 19278 55710 22058 66696 08000
21212 00985 12052 11981 12559 22969 13067 33950 13070 44942 13065
55934 13570 66925 13580 77907 14073 88894 14078 99872 14570 11860
15575 22850 15566 33746 15088 44696 15580
31313 09608 80217
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 19
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 3832N07397W 0221 MBL WND 13066 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 14573 984696 WL150 12562 084 REL 3824N07390W 021702 SPG 3832N0
7397W 022127 =
;
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
Live camera from Times Square. You can see pedestrians.
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/
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Annie Oakley
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This is going to be a long sad night for a lot of people. I hate tornados especially in nighttime. I just hope people prepared the best they could.
Last edited by Annie Oakley on Sat Aug 27, 2011 9:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
You don't even want to know the devastation that can occur in a home/apt if a window breaks/blows in.
I lived in an apt during Ike, and the complex had put in a temp PLASTIC window in my bedroom that acted just like a sail without telling me. Apparently, they were replacing older windows but ran out and put another on order, then forgot about it.
That window blew in about an hour into the storm and I had to hold it there for the next 12-14 hours. In the few minutes I just said, "screw it" and started to gather my things to get out, I realized that my apartment would be torn to pieces (somewhat dramatic, but not by much) if I left it that way.
I'm sure a city like NYC has very high standards, but if your window breaks, don't be an idiot like me. Go down the hall and stay with someone else you know. I was exhausted and bruised for a week after that and it was an incredibly dangerous and stupid thing to do.
Disclaimer - Go to official sites for actual hurricane or emergency information.
I lived in an apt during Ike, and the complex had put in a temp PLASTIC window in my bedroom that acted just like a sail without telling me. Apparently, they were replacing older windows but ran out and put another on order, then forgot about it.
That window blew in about an hour into the storm and I had to hold it there for the next 12-14 hours. In the few minutes I just said, "screw it" and started to gather my things to get out, I realized that my apartment would be torn to pieces (somewhat dramatic, but not by much) if I left it that way.
I'm sure a city like NYC has very high standards, but if your window breaks, don't be an idiot like me. Go down the hall and stay with someone else you know. I was exhausted and bruised for a week after that and it was an incredibly dangerous and stupid thing to do.
Disclaimer - Go to official sites for actual hurricane or emergency information.
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Annie Oakley
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
Ptarmigan wrote:Live camera from Times Square. You can see pedestrians.
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/
That's awesome Ptarmigan! Thanks for posting that. Wasn't Times Square area of of the places they wanted people to evacuate from? I can't remember.
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AdamFirst
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814
URNT15 KNHC 280245
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 40 20110828
023530 3757N 07358W 6958 02957 //// +081 //// 162063 064 049 006 01
023600 3756N 07400W 6958 02954 //// +086 //// 163065 066 048 006 01
023630 3756N 07401W 6953 02960 9799 +100 //// 164066 066 053 001 01
023700 3755N 07403W 6959 02948 9796 +100 //// 163067 067 052 001 05
023730 3754N 07404W 6959 02944 9793 +100 //// 162068 068 049 001 01
023800 3753N 07406W 6955 02947 9790 +102 //// 162067 067 046 000 01
023830 3752N 07408W 6958 02939 9786 +105 //// 162068 069 049 001 01
023900 3751N 07409W 6955 02940 9782 +105 //// 161069 069 047 000 01
023930 3751N 07411W 6959 02935 9777 +105 //// 161069 069 047 001 01
024000 3750N 07412W 6954 02938 9771 +105 //// 161069 070 045 004 01
024030 3749N 07414W 6955 02935 9770 +105 //// 161069 069 046 002 01
024100 3748N 07416W 6961 02921 9766 +105 //// 161069 070 047 001 01
024130 3747N 07417W 6955 02925 9763 +105 //// 160069 070 048 001 05
024200 3746N 07419W 6957 02921 9756 +105 //// 160070 070 049 001 01
024230 3745N 07420W 6957 02915 9752 +105 //// 159069 070 049 003 01
024300 3745N 07422W 6960 02909 9749 +105 //// 160070 071 049 004 01
024330 3744N 07424W 6957 02909 9747 +105 //// 161070 071 051 003 01
024400 3743N 07425W 6955 02912 9740 +107 //// 162068 068 051 002 01
024430 3742N 07427W 6955 02905 9735 +110 //// 161068 068 050 003 01
024500 3741N 07428W 6963 02892 9727 +111 //// 160069 070 051 002 01
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 280245
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 40 20110828
023530 3757N 07358W 6958 02957 //// +081 //// 162063 064 049 006 01
023600 3756N 07400W 6958 02954 //// +086 //// 163065 066 048 006 01
023630 3756N 07401W 6953 02960 9799 +100 //// 164066 066 053 001 01
023700 3755N 07403W 6959 02948 9796 +100 //// 163067 067 052 001 05
023730 3754N 07404W 6959 02944 9793 +100 //// 162068 068 049 001 01
023800 3753N 07406W 6955 02947 9790 +102 //// 162067 067 046 000 01
023830 3752N 07408W 6958 02939 9786 +105 //// 162068 069 049 001 01
023900 3751N 07409W 6955 02940 9782 +105 //// 161069 069 047 000 01
023930 3751N 07411W 6959 02935 9777 +105 //// 161069 069 047 001 01
024000 3750N 07412W 6954 02938 9771 +105 //// 161069 070 045 004 01
024030 3749N 07414W 6955 02935 9770 +105 //// 161069 069 046 002 01
024100 3748N 07416W 6961 02921 9766 +105 //// 161069 070 047 001 01
024130 3747N 07417W 6955 02925 9763 +105 //// 160069 070 048 001 05
024200 3746N 07419W 6957 02921 9756 +105 //// 160070 070 049 001 01
024230 3745N 07420W 6957 02915 9752 +105 //// 159069 070 049 003 01
024300 3745N 07422W 6960 02909 9749 +105 //// 160070 071 049 004 01
024330 3744N 07424W 6957 02909 9747 +105 //// 161070 071 051 003 01
024400 3743N 07425W 6955 02912 9740 +107 //// 162068 068 051 002 01
024430 3742N 07427W 6955 02905 9735 +110 //// 161068 068 050 003 01
024500 3741N 07428W 6963 02892 9727 +111 //// 160069 070 051 002 01
$$
;
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Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like Radar at Mt. Holly NJ has quit. At least my nexrad feed has.
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SootyTern
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
Zarniwoop wrote:You don't even want to know the devastation that can occur in a home/apt if a window breaks/blows in.
I lived in an apt during Ike, and the complex had put in a temp PLASTIC window in my bedroom that acted just like a sail without telling me. Apparently, they were replacing older windows but ran out and put another on order, then forgot about it.
That window blew in about an hour into the storm and I had to hold it there for the next 12-14 hours. In the few minutes I just said, "screw it" and started to gather my things to get out, I realized that my apartment would be torn to pieces (somewhat dramatic, but not by much) if I left it that way.
I'm sure a city like NYC has very high standards, but if your window breaks, don't be an idiot like me. Go down the hall and stay with someone else you know. I was exhausted and bruised for a week after that and it was an incredibly dangerous and stupid thing to do.
Disclaimer - Go to official sites for actual hurricane or emergency information.
At the very least the contents of offices and apartments will be trashed by wind and rain if a window breaks. I wonder how many people in NYC thought to secure their office before they left on Friday. Windows blew out in Miami highrises in Wilma, if I remember right.
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Dave
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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ozonepete
- Professional-Met
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
Recurve wrote:Looks like Radar at Mt. Holly NJ has quit. At least my nexrad feed has.
Yeah. It's down.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
Ptarmigan wrote:Live camera from Times Square. You can see pedestrians.
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/
Great find here. Looking down the main drag of TS near the Marriott; a lot of EMT equipment in front of the hotel...
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brunota2003
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Haven't seen anything to support hurricane force winds. Based off of flight level and dropsonde comparisons, a reduction of approximately 0.65 is accurate to get the flight level winds at the drop locations to match the drop surface winds. Using that, the max flight level wind of 91 knots comes out to about 60 knots.
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AdamFirst
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518
URNT15 KNHC 280255
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 41 20110828
024530 3740N 07430W 6959 02890 9727 +108 //// 158069 069 050 001 01
024600 3740N 07432W 6958 02889 9725 +106 //// 159069 069 050 004 01
024630 3739N 07433W 6957 02887 9722 +107 //// 160070 070 050 003 01
024700 3738N 07435W 6951 02890 9715 +102 //// 161068 069 049 003 01
024730 3737N 07436W 6963 02875 9712 +105 //// 163068 068 050 003 01
024800 3736N 07438W 6967 02862 9706 +105 //// 162069 070 050 003 01
024830 3735N 07440W 6966 02860 9701 +105 //// 163070 071 050 004 01
024900 3735N 07441W 6964 02854 9698 +105 //// 163071 071 050 005 01
024930 3734N 07443W 6968 02848 9697 +103 //// 162072 072 049 006 01
025000 3733N 07444W 6966 02844 9686 +105 //// 162071 072 049 005 01
025030 3732N 07446W 6966 02841 9682 +105 //// 161070 071 052 003 01
025100 3731N 07447W 6967 02834 9677 +105 //// 161070 070 052 003 01
025130 3730N 07449W 6965 02829 9674 +103 //// 163068 068 050 005 01
025200 3730N 07450W 6965 02826 9662 +109 //// 162065 066 052 004 01
025230 3729N 07452W 6971 02812 9659 +106 //// 160065 066 053 004 01
025300 3728N 07454W 6963 02819 9649 +110 //// 161066 066 053 003 01
025330 3727N 07455W 6967 02806 9641 +110 //// 162064 065 053 003 01
025400 3726N 07457W 6965 02800 9634 +110 //// 164062 063 052 004 01
025430 3725N 07458W 6969 02788 9625 +110 //// 167061 061 052 004 01
025500 3724N 07500W 6967 02786 9617 +110 //// 167060 060 050 002 01
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 280255
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 41 20110828
024530 3740N 07430W 6959 02890 9727 +108 //// 158069 069 050 001 01
024600 3740N 07432W 6958 02889 9725 +106 //// 159069 069 050 004 01
024630 3739N 07433W 6957 02887 9722 +107 //// 160070 070 050 003 01
024700 3738N 07435W 6951 02890 9715 +102 //// 161068 069 049 003 01
024730 3737N 07436W 6963 02875 9712 +105 //// 163068 068 050 003 01
024800 3736N 07438W 6967 02862 9706 +105 //// 162069 070 050 003 01
024830 3735N 07440W 6966 02860 9701 +105 //// 163070 071 050 004 01
024900 3735N 07441W 6964 02854 9698 +105 //// 163071 071 050 005 01
024930 3734N 07443W 6968 02848 9697 +103 //// 162072 072 049 006 01
025000 3733N 07444W 6966 02844 9686 +105 //// 162071 072 049 005 01
025030 3732N 07446W 6966 02841 9682 +105 //// 161070 071 052 003 01
025100 3731N 07447W 6967 02834 9677 +105 //// 161070 070 052 003 01
025130 3730N 07449W 6965 02829 9674 +103 //// 163068 068 050 005 01
025200 3730N 07450W 6965 02826 9662 +109 //// 162065 066 052 004 01
025230 3729N 07452W 6971 02812 9659 +106 //// 160065 066 053 004 01
025300 3728N 07454W 6963 02819 9649 +110 //// 161066 066 053 003 01
025330 3727N 07455W 6967 02806 9641 +110 //// 162064 065 053 003 01
025400 3726N 07457W 6965 02800 9634 +110 //// 164062 063 052 004 01
025430 3725N 07458W 6969 02788 9625 +110 //// 167061 061 052 004 01
025500 3724N 07500W 6967 02786 9617 +110 //// 167060 060 050 002 01
$$
;
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion
TWC tweet:
@twc_hurricane
Hurricane Central Rainfall in the New York City Metro. Still early in the game in 1.52@Newark ;1.25@Central Park; 1.25 @JFK ; 1.00 La Guardia #Irene
@twc_hurricane
Hurricane Central Rainfall in the New York City Metro. Still early in the game in 1.52@Newark ;1.25@Central Park; 1.25 @JFK ; 1.00 La Guardia #Irene
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
...IRENE DRENCHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH HEAVY RAINS AS IT
SKIRTS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 75.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED
OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ROUGHLY 125 MILES...205 KM...TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH WAS REPORTED AS
FAR NORTH AS THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 5 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET
HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE
PRELIMINARY WATER LEVEL AT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL HAS
RECENTLY PEAKED NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL THAT WAS ESTABLISHED DURING
HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT THUS FAR OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED
AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...EXPECTED BY NOON SUNDAY. WINDS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS...WATER LEVEL VALUES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...EASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
...IRENE DRENCHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH HEAVY RAINS AS IT
SKIRTS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 75.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED
OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ROUGHLY 125 MILES...205 KM...TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH WAS REPORTED AS
FAR NORTH AS THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 5 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET
HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE
PRELIMINARY WATER LEVEL AT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL HAS
RECENTLY PEAKED NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL THAT WAS ESTABLISHED DURING
HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT THUS FAR OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED
AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...EXPECTED BY NOON SUNDAY. WINDS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS...WATER LEVEL VALUES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...EASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Dave
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Jevo
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Re:
brunota2003 wrote:Haven't seen anything to support hurricane force winds. Based off of flight level and dropsonde comparisons, a reduction of approximately 0.65 is accurate to get the flight level winds at the drop locations to match the drop surface winds. Using that, the max flight level wind of 91 knots comes out to about 60 knots.
Soo 60 Knots = 69.1 MPH now you an I know thats not a cat 1... but right now 30 million+ people think they have a hurricane coming at them and they are acting accordingly.... if you start calling this a tropical storm people start coming out and making the stupid mistakes that got 8 people killed in North Carolina today..
I saw water turn a highway into a river 5 hours after Irene passed today...
She is still pushing 7feet of water in front over her no matter what you call it..... Irene is a hurricane
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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