ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion
Located SE of CV islands.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108280043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011082800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922011
AL, 92, 2011082700, , BEST, 0, 104N, 145W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011082706, , BEST, 0, 104N, 157W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011082712, , BEST, 0, 104N, 169W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011082718, , BEST, 0, 104N, 182W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011082800, , BEST, 0, 103N, 195W, 20, 1012, DB
Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this system.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111648&hilit=&p=2179793#p2179793
8/27/11 8 PM TWO:
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108280043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2011, DB, O, 2011082800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922011
AL, 92, 2011082700, , BEST, 0, 104N, 145W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011082706, , BEST, 0, 104N, 157W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011082712, , BEST, 0, 104N, 169W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011082718, , BEST, 0, 104N, 182W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2011082800, , BEST, 0, 103N, 195W, 20, 1012, DB
Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this system.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111648&hilit=&p=2179793#p2179793
8/27/11 8 PM TWO:
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Thank God we have somethng else to track... as much fun as Irene was to track.. I am so done with her!
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
This should be a big one....most likely to recurve though.
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Michael
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ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
ECM developes this into a monster cane but early speculation on my part suggest recurve is probable with this one.
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Well i think this one is the one that JB predicts will/could be a threat to the east coast. Of course hes human and makes mistakes but something to keep in mind. IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Reminder, when posting pictures copy them to an image storage site like imageshack (see browse and host it! button when posting) or imgur.com, do not directly link to images. Thanks.
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- AdamFirst
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Re:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Well i think this one is the one that JB predicts will/could be a threat to the east coast. Of course hes human and makes mistakes but something to keep in mind. IMO.
Irene not enough for him?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Ok folks,lets not deviate from the topic on hand and that is invest 92L.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
First tropical model plots.
Michael,they go west.
Michael,they go west.
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 280045
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110828 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110828 0000 110828 1200 110829 0000 110829 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.3N 19.5W 10.1N 21.3W 9.9N 23.3W 9.9N 25.8W
BAMD 10.3N 19.5W 10.2N 21.9W 10.2N 24.3W 10.2N 26.8W
BAMM 10.3N 19.5W 10.1N 21.7W 10.1N 24.0W 10.0N 26.5W
LBAR 10.3N 19.5W 10.2N 22.3W 10.5N 25.5W 10.8N 29.0W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 36KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 36KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110830 0000 110831 0000 110901 0000 110902 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 28.5W 9.5N 34.0W 8.5N 37.6W 8.1N 38.2W
BAMD 10.3N 29.3W 10.5N 34.2W 10.1N 38.6W 9.1N 42.2W
BAMM 10.0N 28.9W 9.9N 33.5W 9.6N 36.6W 9.8N 37.6W
LBAR 11.3N 32.5W 13.6N 38.8W 14.6N 43.8W 11.2N 38.3W
SHIP 55KTS 68KTS 76KTS 79KTS
DSHP 55KTS 68KTS 76KTS 79KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 19.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 16.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 14.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 180NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- HurricaneMaster_PR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Given its low latitude (near 10N) we should monitor this system closely, specially us in the islands. A stronger system like the GFS is forecasting will possibly recurve, but if this system is not as deep as the GFS is forecasting it in the next 72 hours then a more westward track should be more plausible.
For now, lets just keep watching it..
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For now, lets just keep watching it..
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by HurricaneMaster_PR on Sat Aug 27, 2011 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Lol no idea, but he posted on twitter which sounded confident that the pattern will be there to shove it to the east coast: "East coast: next hurricane threat coming in 12-16 days! Euro now seeing it. I wasnt kidding around about this pattern" -Joe Bastardi
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Saved image.The BAMMS go west while the globals go to recurve.Which camp will be right?
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- Meteorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Seems like the track of this one could depend heavily on the speed of its development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
18Z NOGAPS...shows a little further west but starts to lift out at 50W....should have a better grip in a few days...
love the way NOGAPS forms a TS over Africa and plows the CV islands.... someone remind why we have this model again...
18Z NOGAPS...shows a little further west but starts to lift out at 50W....should have a better grip in a few days...
love the way NOGAPS forms a TS over Africa and plows the CV islands.... someone remind why we have this model again...
Last edited by ROCK on Sat Aug 27, 2011 9:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Adrian,that has to be an error by the Bams as they go west and turn right in a heartbeat.
Saved image
Saved image
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