ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

did I see that right 946.8.... ??

195830 3600N 07605W 7242 02344 9468 +156 //// 141010 014 /// /// 05

Shes deepening??

Yeah although it probably is a little higher on the surface (950ish range) it shows that will take a while for this to wind down.

[BigA]

did I see that right 946.8.... ??

Yep. Will be really interesting to see what happens when this gets back over water, especially with the jet ventilating it. As epsilon and others have shown, a storm can do well in marginal or even sub-marginal SSTs if the upper air support is good.

[Dave]

[lothianjavert]

Winds are picking up a bit here and it's raining (has been raining) a good bit. Cecil co. is starting voluntary evacuations for lowlying areas. Right now I'm feeling really guilty as I was supposed to drive into Baltimore this evening for a service & mass for a former co-worker that passed away this week, and I'm not sure about doing the trip. Going down should be ok, but the trip back tonight is what is concerning- I expect that by 10p.m. or so when I'd be on the road back it'll be much less pleasant.

I have my weather station hooked up and running, sorry no webcam-I don't have one yet The wind data is not correct as it unfortunately is in the lee of the house. I need to find a better spot for it so my data is better, but as I keep having to clean the wasps out of my rain gauge, it needs to be easily accessible! http://english.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KMDNORTH11

[Dave]

346
URNT15 KNHC 272010
AF303 3309A IRENE HDOB 35 20110827
200100 3603N 07609W 7239 02367 9503 +141 //// 073029 031 /// /// 05
200130 3605N 07609W 7245 02372 9517 +133 //// 072034 035 /// /// 05
200200 3606N 07608W 7230 02390 //// +125 //// 080031 034 /// /// 05
200230 3604N 07607W 7244 02361 9506 +136 //// 082025 028 /// /// 05
200300 3602N 07607W 7247 02349 9486 +148 //// 078014 017 /// /// 05
200330 3601N 07607W 7240 02350 9474 +153 //// 057004 007 /// /// 05
200400 3559N 07606W 7241 02359 9479 +152 //// 252005 008 /// /// 05
200430 3559N 07606W 7241 02359 9473 +150 //// 190013 018 /// /// 05
200500 3600N 07602W 7244 02345 9476 +150 //// 171024 027 /// /// 05
200530 3601N 07601W 7241 02358 9489 +147 //// 164037 040 /// /// 05
200600 3601N 07559W 7237 02367 9505 +140 //// 168044 047 /// /// 05
200630 3601N 07557W 7248 02363 9515 +136 //// 173051 053 /// /// 05
200700 3601N 07555W 7238 02383 9523 +133 //// 176054 055 /// /// 05
200730 3601N 07553W 7244 02387 //// +123 //// 181057 058 /// /// 05
200800 3600N 07551W 7244 02391 9542 +127 //// 187059 059 /// /// 05
200830 3559N 07550W 7240 02400 9547 +135 //// 192061 063 /// /// 05
200900 3558N 07548W 7244 02407 9552 +140 //// 195064 064 /// /// 05
200930 3557N 07547W 7248 02414 9567 +135 //// 198064 064 /// /// 05
201000 3556N 07546W 7242 02421 9570 +135 //// 202063 063 /// /// 05
201030 3554N 07546W 7241 02427 9578 +131 //// 205063 063 /// /// 05
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Did they drop a sonde, I wonder? 946.8 on the plane...probably closer to 949 on the surface.

[seahawkjd]

I heard from my parents. They said its starting to lighten up a bit in Beaufort but still really windy and raining. They said there are lots of limbs and debris down and that they had a tree come down near the house but not on the house.

[Dave]

[ConvergenceZone]

did I see that right 946.8.... ??

Yep. Will be really interesting to see what happens when this gets back over water, especially with the jet ventilating it. As epsilon and others have shown, a storm can do well in marginal or even sub-marginal SSTs if the upper air support is good.

Well, it didn't strengthen over water 24 hours prior to landfall, so I don't expect any increase in strength once it once again gets over water.

#1, huge systems like this increase in strength very slowly
#2. The time over the water will be short duration. If this was in the Gulf, then yes, it would probably strengthen a little bit.

[Meteorcane]

did I see that right 946.8.... ??

Yep. Will be really interesting to see what happens when this gets back over water, especially with the jet ventilating it. As epsilon and others have shown, a storm can do well in marginal or even sub-marginal SSTs if the upper air support is good.

Well, it didn't strengthen over water 24 hours prior to landfall, so I don't expect any increase in strength once it once again gets over water.

#1, huge systems like this increase in strength very slowly
#2. The time over the water will be short duration. If this was in the Gulf, then yes, it would probably strengthen a little bit.

Agreed, but I also think #1 also lends itself to "huge systems will decrease in strength very slowly"

[Terry]

Flash flood warning here in Auburn MA. These bands have been dumping on us big time and Irene is 17 hours away!

Those rain bands dumping water on Massachusetts are unrelated to Irene as well. They've developed ahead of the storm and dont seem to be related to the spiral banding of the storm.

This flooding actually IS part of Irene, according to my eyes and to the Taunton, Mass NWS. Huge dang hurricane with so many people having to endure it for such a long time!

[ConvergenceZone]

Agreed, but I also think #1 also lends itself to "huge systems will decrease in strength very slowly"

That's true. The size is what's kept this as a hurricane, even with land interaction...

[Aja]

I was told that on twitter & had the same thought about the pressure.

DISCLAIMER:I'm a journalist, not a meteorologist.

[Dave]

Someone else want to pick this one up...have 2 USAF's in the air now...AF 304 on the runway:

291
URNT15 KNHC 272015
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 01 20110827
200530 3024N 08855W 0066 ///// //// //// +255 360000 000 /// /// 25
200600 3024N 08855W 0073 ///// //// //// +255 360000 000 /// /// 25
200630 3024N 08855W 0072 00001 0074 +355 +255 360000 000 /// /// 03
200700 3024N 08855W 0072 00001 0074 +334 +254 360000 000 /// /// 03
200730 3024N 08855W 0072 00001 0075 +331 +254 360000 000 /// /// 03
200800 3024N 08855W 0073 00001 0074 +341 +253 360000 000 /// /// 03
200830 3025N 08855W 0073 ///// 0073 +345 +253 360000 000 /// /// 23
200900 3025N 08855W 0073 ///// 0073 +343 +252 360000 000 /// /// 23
200930 3025N 08855W 0073 ///// 0073 +338 +251 360000 000 /// /// 23
201000 3025N 08855W 0073 ///// 0072 +341 +250 360000 000 /// /// 23
201030 3025N 08855W 0073 ///// 0072 +337 +250 360000 000 /// /// 23
201100 3025N 08855W 0073 ///// 0072 +337 +249 360000 000 /// /// 23
201130 3025N 08855W 0072 ///// 0073 +338 +248 360000 000 /// /// 23
201200 3025N 08855W 0073 ///// 0073 +333 +248 360000 000 /// /// 23
201230 3025N 08855W 0072 ///// 0073 +331 +247 360000 000 /// /// 23
201300 3025N 08855W 0072 ///// 0073 +332 +246 360000 000 /// /// 23
201330 3025N 08855W 0075 ///// 0073 +332 +245 360000 000 /// /// 23
201400 3025N 08855W 0074 ///// 0071 +349 +244 360000 000 /// /// 23
201430 3025N 08855W 0065 ///// 0068 +338 +243 324003 007 /// /// 23
201500 3024N 08856W 9991 00048 0063 +318 +242 318010 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Mark]

Can Long Island and NYC still expect to see the category 2 storm surge many on this board were predicting?? After all, storm surge is the biggest threat and I heard many here say that even if Irene weakens to a category 1, because of the size there would still be storm surge to the extent of a 5 (on a 0-6 scale).

[Jevo]

Wow..... Irene pushed all of the water to the West side of Roanoke Bay



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Source:MWatkins

[DTMEDIC]

Here in lower Gloucester County, VA...Winds have not been impressive at all with regard to "sustained" but they seem to be especially bad in the gusts...even our local MET commenting on the unusually high gusts that wouldn't be expected with the lower sustained winds...when it gusts, it can be wild. Have lost a few trees, but none were threats to our home, fence or pool. With regard to sustained winds...similar to TS Ernesto in our location. Most of the water around now is from the rain...our pool overflow drain can't keep up, so the pool is p-r-e-t-t-y full right now. Noticing tide beginning to make up as evidenced by suddenly higher amounts in our ditches...FIL says at dead low tide, the water was probably 2-3 ft above a normal high tide at his place. We still have power, we still have cable, internet & phone...for now.

[Dave]

838
URNT15 KNHC 272021
AF303 3309A IRENE HDOB 36 20110827
201100 3553N 07545W 7240 02429 9581 +130 //// 210064 064 /// /// 05
201130 3552N 07545W 7244 02432 //// +121 //// 215065 067 /// /// 05
201200 3551N 07544W 7242 02442 9605 +124 //// 218068 069 /// /// 05
201230 3549N 07543W 7244 02451 9612 +125 //// 220070 070 /// /// 05
201300 3548N 07542W 7242 02458 9619 +127 //// 220072 073 /// /// 05
201330 3547N 07542W 7242 02463 9625 +128 //// 219073 073 /// /// 05
201400 3545N 07541W 7242 02468 9631 +125 //// 221074 074 /// /// 05
201430 3544N 07540W 7241 02477 9642 +126 //// 221074 075 /// /// 05
201500 3543N 07540W 7236 02488 9640 +130 //// 223074 074 /// /// 05
201530 3542N 07540W 7242 02481 9643 +131 //// 225075 075 /// /// 05
201600 3541N 07541W 7242 02485 9644 +135 //// 228077 077 /// /// 05
201630 3539N 07541W 7241 02492 9651 +133 //// 228078 078 /// /// 05
201700 3538N 07541W 7242 02496 9655 +132 //// 228078 078 /// /// 05
201730 3537N 07541W 7241 02500 9659 +135 //// 231077 077 /// /// 05
201800 3536N 07541W 7243 02506 9663 +134 //// 234075 076 /// /// 05
201830 3535N 07542W 7240 02506 9659 +137 //// 236073 073 /// /// 05
201900 3534N 07543W 7241 02511 9659 +140 //// 238072 073 /// /// 05
201930 3533N 07544W 7243 02511 9662 +141 //// 240071 072 /// /// 05
202000 3532N 07545W 7241 02516 9665 +142 +139 242071 072 /// /// 03
202030 3531N 07545W 7244 02514 9670 +140 +138 245072 072 /// /// 03
$$
;

[TropicalWXMA]

Flash flood warning here in Auburn MA. These bands have been dumping on us big time and Irene is 17 hours away!

Those rain bands dumping water on Massachusetts are unrelated to Irene as well. They've developed ahead of the storm and dont seem to be related to the spiral banding of the storm.

This flooding actually IS part of Irene, according to my eyes and to the Taunton, Mass NWS. Huge dang hurricane with so many people having to endure it for such a long time!

The rain bands currently moving through Massachusetts are in fact from an old warm/now stationary front per NWS ADDS and SPC Mesoanalysis:

[Dave]

AF303