ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[WeatherLovingDoc]

There is now a big northeast jog of the center of Irene on radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=mhx&loop=yes

Currituck Sound is NE of the eye to my untrained eyes. Beyond it lies the narrow portion of the northern most part of OBX, where the horses remain.

Disclaimer: Please refer to NHC and your local experts for hurricane guidance as I am no expert.

[Dick Pache]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/201108271707.mp3 1PM NHC Irene podcast in english

[Dave]

518
URNT15 KNHC 271750
AF303 3309A IRENE HDOB 21 20110827
174100 3518N 07547W 7242 02502 9667 +126 //// 204079 079 /// /// 05
174130 3518N 07549W 7241 02499 9658 +128 //// 205077 078 /// /// 05
174200 3518N 07551W 7242 02487 9652 +129 //// 206075 076 /// /// 05
174230 3518N 07552W 7239 02487 9646 +127 //// 208074 075 /// /// 05
174300 3518N 07554W 7242 02477 9637 +130 //// 209073 073 /// /// 05
174330 3518N 07556W 7241 02473 9630 +130 //// 212071 073 /// /// 05
174400 3518N 07557W 7246 02463 //// +124 //// 211069 070 /// /// 05
174430 3518N 07559W 7240 02461 //// +123 //// 211065 068 /// /// 05
174500 3519N 07601W 7244 02447 //// +130 //// 209061 062 /// /// 05
174530 3520N 07603W 7239 02442 9594 +130 //// 211059 060 /// /// 05
174600 3521N 07605W 7244 02428 9582 +134 //// 210061 061 /// /// 05
174630 3521N 07606W 7240 02430 9577 +133 //// 211063 063 /// /// 05
174700 3520N 07606W 7233 02443 //// +129 //// 215066 067 /// /// 05
174730 3520N 07604W 7246 02429 9589 +131 //// 211067 067 /// /// 05
174800 3522N 07602W 7244 02433 9593 +130 //// 205067 067 /// /// 05
174830 3523N 07600W 7244 02442 9598 +130 //// 201067 068 /// /// 05
174900 3525N 07558W 7242 02447 //// +127 //// 196068 068 /// /// 05
174930 3526N 07556W 7241 02453 //// +124 //// 194070 072 /// /// 05
175000 3528N 07554W 7241 02456 //// +118 //// 194075 076 /// /// 05
175030 3530N 07552W 7241 02465 //// +117 //// 190079 080 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Stephanie]

So what kind of surge can we expect in nyc and long island?

Check this link out:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/risk/index.shtml?gm

[njweather]

Steady 15-20mph winds here in Washington, DC... Gusts up to 30mph. We're expected to get the worst of it this evening.

[tolakram]

Radar estimated total precip

Dover AFB


Norfolk


Morehead City

[Listeri69]

Some heavy rain squalls coming into southern CT now watching out of the window, local weather reports that we've already had 1 inch of rain today already making the ground saturated. Take care everyone.

[tolakram]

Latest saved radar loop out of Morehead City

[brunota2003]

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 1045 AM SATURDAY...BASED ON MHX WSR-88D...HURRICANE IRENE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY AND PUSHING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND. IRENE MADE
LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 730 AM/1130 Z AT CAPE LOOKOUT. INTENSE
RAIN BANDS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE STILL
OCCURRING NEAR THE EYE. HIGHEST PEAK WINDS REPORTED RANGE FROM
85-90 SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 110-115 MPH AT CEDAR ISLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. ACCORDING TO 8 AM DATA COLLECTION...COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES OBSERVED 4-5 INCHES OF RAIN WHILE EASTERN LOCATIONS
OBSERVED NEARLY 8 INCHES. IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES NORTH-NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS LATER THIS EVENING. DETAILS FOR
SPECIFIC IMPACTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
(HLS).

90 mph at landfall.

[Dave]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 76.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE
UNITED STATES BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND
MANAN...AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE
TO PORTERS LAKE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LANGLEY
AIR FORCE BASE IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE
BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND-LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY
LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ncbird]

Thought I would post before i lost the last of my battery on lap top. No electric, but from what I am hearing almost every county east of I95 has had power outages. New Bern has taken a real beating and its not over yet. Heavier flooding in New Bern than what we would normally get from with a cat1. No doubt it was caused from the size and angle the hurricane came in at. Many trees and power lines are down. Last I herd, New Bern is under a curfew until further notice but apparently many are not following it as someone called into the radio station saying they saw some young people swimming down Middle St.

We lost about 40 feet of the top of a gum tree which is now on the roof and in the yard. Many tree's in yard just snapped off or lost large branches. Not about to venture out yet and get on roof to check the damage until winds and rain are gone. Safety comes first.

As for the other counties around, I am hearing reports on radio of large amounts of tree's down everywhere and much flooding. Wish I could provide more specific information but only have radio and police scanner to go by.

Irene may have only made landfall as a cat 1, but she sure packed a punch.
Catch you all when winds die down enough to get generator out and power to charge the batteries back up.

My friends up North in her path.... don't under estimate this storm. She is one evil lady.

NCBird

[tolakram]

Thanks, take care NCBird!

[dixiebreeze]

Daughter in Jacksonville, N.C. lives alone, did not evacuate. Reports she lost her front porch, plus huge tree has downed power lines nearby. Says getting the backside of Irene now and it's the worst so far. By some miracle her power is still on and she can report via facebook.

She is under curfew now and ordered not to leave the premises. Tons of rain, limbs, branches, etc.

[Dave]

229
URNT15 KNHC 271801
AF303 3309A IRENE HDOB 22 20110827
175100 3531N 07550W 7245 02472 //// +120 //// 185081 081 /// /// 05
175130 3533N 07548W 7240 02483 //// +122 //// 183081 082 /// /// 05
175200 3535N 07546W 7241 02488 //// +122 //// 181084 085 /// /// 05
175230 3536N 07545W 7243 02492 //// +125 //// 179084 084 /// /// 05
175300 3538N 07543W 7243 02503 //// +125 //// 177083 084 /// /// 05
175330 3539N 07541W 7243 02510 9678 +127 //// 173082 083 /// /// 05
175400 3541N 07539W 7240 02520 9679 +135 //// 170082 084 /// /// 05
175430 3543N 07538W 7244 02520 9685 +135 //// 169084 084 /// /// 05
175500 3544N 07536W 7241 02526 9684 +140 +135 170081 083 /// /// 03
175530 3546N 07534W 7240 02539 9693 +136 //// 169081 082 /// /// 05
175600 3548N 07533W 7242 02534 9696 +136 //// 167081 081 /// /// 05
175630 3549N 07531W 7241 02549 9708 +139 +134 167079 079 /// /// 03
175700 3551N 07529W 7244 02553 9711 +142 +130 168080 080 /// /// 03
175730 3553N 07528W 7240 02563 9718 +140 +128 169082 083 /// /// 03
175800 3554N 07526W 7241 02570 9724 +141 +126 168080 080 /// /// 03
175830 3556N 07525W 7244 02568 9729 +141 +126 167079 079 /// /// 03
175900 3558N 07524W 7244 02572 9734 +141 +125 165078 079 /// /// 03
175930 3600N 07523W 7239 02581 9740 +139 +126 164079 079 /// /// 03
180000 3602N 07522W 7242 02581 9745 +139 +123 163079 080 /// /// 03
180030 3605N 07521W 7244 02585 9751 +138 +118 162081 081 /// /// 03
$$
;

[southerngale]

Thanks for the report, ncbird. Stay safe!!

[CrazyC83]

I'm starting to see the cirrus cloud deck and it is more than 650 miles from me!

[WeatherGuesser]

I still want to hear about any rise in Chesapeake Bay.

That may be some indicator of what may happen in Hudson Bay.

[Dave]

[Chacor]

TS warnings now issued for southern Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.