ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Latest saved radar loop:

[Sanibel]

Is NYC out of the crosshairs?

If anything more in the crosshairs, but I'm not sure of the intensity when it gets there. They're saying it won't lose much strength.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

[WeatherGuesser]

Is NYC out of the crosshairs?

Not really. Current track cuts across Long Island, but there will still be heavy rains, winds and storm surge coming up the rivers.

[maryellen40]

Is NYC out of the crosshairs?

If anything more in the crosshairs, but I'm not sure of the intensity when it gets there. They're saying it won't lose much strength.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm afraid new Yorkers are going to be in for a big surprise

[Chacor]

Bill Read said at an 11 am DHS/NHC/FEMA press conference that Long Island Sound could see 4-8 ft of surge.

[Sanibel]

You can see the slight bump NNE at the end of Tolakram's radar loop. Should keep Irene closer to its water energy source.

[Dave]

917
URNT15 KNHC 271610
AF303 3309A IRENE HDOB 11 20110827
160100 3558N 07521W 7236 02626 9803 +120 //// 156081 083 /// /// 05
160130 3557N 07522W 7244 02615 9800 +120 //// 156082 082 /// /// 05
160200 3556N 07522W 7239 02621 9799 +120 //// 156080 080 /// /// 05
160230 3555N 07523W 7237 02619 9794 +120 //// 156080 080 /// /// 05
160300 3554N 07524W 7246 02606 9789 +121 //// 158077 077 /// /// 05
160330 3553N 07525W 7244 02606 9783 +125 //// 160075 075 /// /// 05
160400 3552N 07526W 7241 02607 9776 +129 +128 160074 075 /// /// 03
160430 3551N 07527W 7244 02597 9772 +129 //// 160073 074 /// /// 05
160500 3550N 07528W 7238 02601 9766 +131 +126 161071 071 /// /// 03
160530 3548N 07529W 7247 02588 9763 +132 +127 164072 073 /// /// 03
160600 3547N 07530W 7237 02601 9753 +138 +125 167071 072 /// /// 03
160630 3546N 07531W 7240 02589 9745 +139 +126 167071 072 /// /// 03
160700 3545N 07532W 7241 02581 9736 +135 +129 167071 072 /// /// 03
160730 3544N 07531W 7245 02566 9734 +136 +132 168071 071 /// /// 03
160800 3543N 07531W 7242 02565 9733 +132 //// 169071 072 /// /// 05
160830 3542N 07531W 7241 02573 9726 +134 //// 170070 071 /// /// 05
160900 3541N 07531W 7243 02566 9729 +134 //// 169072 072 /// /// 05
160930 3539N 07531W 7243 02556 9728 +133 //// 168073 073 /// /// 05
161000 3538N 07530W 7241 02565 9732 +132 //// 168074 075 /// /// 05
161030 3537N 07530W 7241 02572 9735 +133 +131 169076 077 /// /// 03
$$
;

[SNOW_JOKE]

Buoy offshore Virginia Beach now reading waves above 21ft
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44014

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 271613
XXAA 77157 99350 70736 11653 99994 27835 15545 00550 ///// /////
92638 22212 17078 85371 18403 17580 70019 10001 18075 88999 77999
31313 09608 81527
61616 AF303 3309A IRENE OB 04
62626 SPL 3506N07364W 1532 MBL WND 16068 AEV 20802 DLM WND 17577
994697 WL150 15559 083 REL 3496N07363W 152749 SPG 3506N07364W 153
215 =
XXBB 77158 99350 70736 11653 00994 27835 11908 21005 22850 18403
33710 11404 44697 09400
21212 00994 15545 11993 15546 22987 16062 33974 16062 44965 16574
55908 17079 66894 17084 77867 17084 88850 17580 99697 18075
31313 09608 81527
61616 AF303 3309A IRENE OB 04
62626 SPL 3506N07364W 1532 MBL WND 16068 AEV 20802 DLM WND 17577
994697 WL150 15559 083 REL 3496N07363W 152749 SPG 3506N07364W 153
215 =
;

[FrontRunner]

Can someone explain to me why Irene is going to be so much worse than Gloria for NYC, especially in Manhattan? I'm not really familiar with Gloria, but it seems that it was stronger than Irene and was moving at a much faster speed. So I guess rainfall/flooding will be worse with Irene. Will the storm surge really be worse than Gloria? Wikipedia says there was about a 7 ft surge in Battery Park with Gloria, which doesn't seem to have been that big of a deal. There were no mass evacuations or closure of the mass transit system back then, so why now?

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 4

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 16:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 04

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 15Z on the 27th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 35.0N 73.6W
Location: 110 miles (178 km) to the E (99°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
Marsden Square: 116 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
994mb (29.35 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 24.3°C (75.7°F) 155° (from the SSE) 45 knots (52 mph)
1000mb -50m (-164 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 638m (2,093 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 170° (from the S) 78 knots (90 mph)
850mb 1,371m (4,498 ft) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 18.1°C (64.6°F) 175° (from the S) 80 knots (92 mph)
700mb 3,019m (9,905 ft) 10.0°C (50.0°F) 9.9°C (49.8°F) 180° (from the S) 75 knots (86 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:27Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 35.06N 73.64W
Splash Time: 15:32Z

Release Location: 34.96N 73.63W View map)
Release Time: 15:27:49Z

Splash Location: 35.06N 73.64W (
Splash Time: 15:32:15Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 68 knots (78 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 175° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 77 knots (89 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 994mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 59 knots (68 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
994mb (Surface) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 24.3°C (75.7°F)
908mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.5°C (68.9°F)
850mb 18.4°C (65.1°F) 18.1°C (64.6°F)
710mb 11.4°C (52.5°F) 11.0°C (51.8°F)
697mb 9.4°C (48.9°F) 9.4°C (48.9°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
994mb (Surface) 155° (from the SSE) 45 knots (52 mph)
993mb 155° (from the SSE) 46 knots (53 mph)
987mb 160° (from the SSE) 62 knots (71 mph)
974mb 160° (from the SSE) 62 knots (71 mph)
965mb 165° (from the SSE) 74 knots (85 mph)
908mb 170° (from the S) 79 knots (91 mph)
894mb 170° (from the S) 84 knots (97 mph)
867mb 170° (from the S) 84 knots (97 mph)
850mb 175° (from the S) 80 knots (92 mph)
697mb 180° (from the S) 75 knots (86 mph)


---



[Dave]

689
URNT15 KNHC 271620
AF303 3309A IRENE HDOB 12 20110827
161100 3536N 07530W 7242 02569 9729 +135 +130 170076 077 /// /// 03
161130 3535N 07530W 7241 02569 9728 +137 +130 171075 076 /// /// 03
161200 3534N 07530W 7242 02551 9708 +140 +130 171075 076 /// /// 03
161230 3533N 07529W 7241 02558 9713 +136 +131 172076 076 /// /// 03
161300 3532N 07530W 7241 02546 9708 +135 //// 173077 077 /// /// 05
161330 3530N 07530W 7242 02549 9707 +135 //// 173077 078 /// /// 05
161400 3529N 07530W 7242 02552 9710 +135 //// 173076 077 /// /// 05
161430 3528N 07530W 7241 02546 9707 +135 +134 174075 075 /// /// 03
161500 3527N 07530W 7242 02546 9706 +140 +130 175076 076 /// /// 03
161530 3526N 07530W 7242 02548 9703 +140 +130 176076 076 /// /// 03
161600 3525N 07530W 7237 02555 9702 +139 +131 178076 076 /// /// 03
161630 3524N 07530W 7246 02546 9702 +137 +134 179075 076 /// /// 03
161700 3522N 07531W 7239 02551 9697 +143 +130 179074 074 /// /// 03
161730 3521N 07531W 7242 02543 9701 +141 +129 181076 076 /// /// 03
161800 3520N 07532W 7242 02545 9706 +145 +128 182075 075 /// /// 03
161830 3519N 07532W 7242 02550 9702 +146 +128 184076 076 /// /// 03
161900 3518N 07532W 7241 02537 9692 +147 +128 185075 075 /// /// 03
161930 3517N 07533W 7241 02532 9683 +149 +126 187074 075 /// /// 03
162000 3517N 07534W 7242 02550 9703 +141 +129 188072 072 /// /// 03
162030 3517N 07536W 7245 02532 9698 +139 +131 188074 075 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Dave]

WATER VAPOR

[HurricaneBelle]

Can someone explain to me why Irene is going to be so much worse than Gloria for NYC, especially in Manhattan? I'm not really familiar with Gloria, but it seems that it was stronger than Irene and was moving at a much faster speed. So I guess rainfall/flooding will be worse with Irene. Will the storm surge really be worse than Gloria? Wikipedia says there was about a 7 ft surge in Battery Park with Gloria, which doesn't seem to have been that big of a deal. There were no mass evacuations or closure of the mass transit system back then, so why now?

There's your key - Gloria was moving at a much faster speed, which meant it was in and out of the area without an excessively prolonged period of TS conditions. Irene on the other hand, is a larger storm in areal coverage, moving much slower, blowing TS to Hurricane-force winds for a longer period of time, piling up considerably more water ahead of it to potentially create a larger and more prolonged surge, and dropping much more rain, which will lead to fresh-water flooding and uprooted trees.

[brunota2003]

Need some help guys!!! My brother and sister inlaw leave near cherry point nc havlock is the city they live in I think. I looked and the eye is just east of them and not by much at all,,maybe 30 miles or so. They would like to know what kind of winds there getting (mph) and if its going to get worse or stay the same. They are taking a beating and are now having water come into the house. I have pulled 2 all nighters and have not slept at all so my research is really bad and slow and I hope I am making since right now. any updates for there area would be great.

I actually grew up in Havelock. On my street (still got friends there), they said they still have power, and it looks like the worst damage is some small trees down and limbs down. Cherry Point reported a max sustained wind of 52 mph, with gusts to around 70 mph before the power went out on base and the station stopped reporting. It appears power on the west side of town (the power comes from New Bern) is still holding up, but the power on the east side (it comes from Down East/Carteret County) is out due to the stronger winds.

[Dave]

743
URNT15 KNHC 271630
AF303 3309A IRENE HDOB 13 20110827
162100 3516N 07538W 7242 02550 9701 +141 +126 189073 074 /// /// 03
162130 3516N 07540W 7241 02537 9688 +147 +124 189070 071 /// /// 03
162200 3516N 07542W 7244 02522 9676 +148 +121 189070 071 /// /// 03
162230 3516N 07544W 7241 02533 9678 +148 +117 190074 075 /// /// 03
162300 3516N 07546W 7238 02533 9669 +155 +114 188077 078 /// /// 03
162330 3516N 07548W 7241 02519 9663 +153 +115 186075 076 /// /// 03
162400 3517N 07550W 7241 02514 9661 +146 +131 186073 074 /// /// 03
162430 3517N 07552W 7240 02510 9653 +148 +131 185069 071 /// /// 03
162500 3517N 07554W 7240 02504 9642 +151 +130 187065 066 /// /// 03
162530 3517N 07556W 7240 02493 9638 +145 +140 188066 067 /// /// 03
162600 3517N 07558W 7246 02482 9628 +148 +144 188069 070 /// /// 03
162630 3517N 07600W 7246 02475 9612 +158 +137 185069 071 /// /// 03
162700 3517N 07602W 7239 02470 9609 +151 +139 186072 072 /// /// 03
162730 3518N 07604W 7240 02464 9607 +141 +140 184069 070 /// /// 03
162800 3518N 07606W 7241 02452 9595 +143 +141 179067 068 /// /// 03
162830 3518N 07608W 7240 02441 9588 +139 //// 176063 064 /// /// 05
162900 3518N 07610W 7240 02435 9572 +144 //// 174061 062 /// /// 05
162930 3518N 07612W 7245 02415 9554 +149 //// 173064 065 /// /// 05
163000 3518N 07615W 7240 02406 9542 +146 //// 171064 066 /// /// 05
163030 3518N 07617W 7247 02387 9527 +150 //// 171056 058 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Cyclenall]

This storm seems to be a hybrid of Ike and Igor to me now.

The last 16 hours has absolutely been a whirlwind, I have never seen a hurricane close to this one landing on the US coastline in terms of being weird and fascinating. I agree with the Ike and Igor thing, Irene has both hurricanes in its DNA or something lol.

It's almost like Hurricane Irene has over 3 eyes and eyewalls and more possibly. Does anyone else have this suspicion? I have been watching Link: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-seve ... her-webcam for 12 hours now and it has been a wild ride to say the least. I posted before this was the best stream to watch for the hurricane around 5:30 am EDT. It was amazing to have sub 960 mb pressures for hours on end with hardly any wind or rain!!! Completely crazy and the storm chasers didn't even know what the heck was going on for the longest time. At some point he started questioning whether the entire hurricane is just one big eye! Just as he said though, there are a lot of questions with this one...

Suspicion about what? Yeah it has had an unusual frequency of eye wall replacement cycles. It is still holding steady.

I mean all at once, there is an eye within an eye within an eye, and so on.

[SouthDadeFish]

A massive system: