ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Nice view of Irene's eye on long-range Miami radar if interested ...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

We really dodged a bullet with this one in South Florida, so I'm sending good vibes to anyone farther up the coast!

[Stephanie]

Nice view of Irene's eye on long-range Miami radar if interested ...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

We really dodged a bullet with this one in South Florida, so I'm sending good vibes to anyone farther up the coast!

Thank you!

[SunnyThoughts]

:uarrow:

wouldnt you think it would lose quite a bit of strength as it approached the carolinas coast due to the cool water?

000
FXUS61 KPHI 251602
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1202 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011


INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS
WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS
SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.

Well that certainly doesn't sound good, I was hoping it would lose most of its punch up that far north.

[mf_dolphin]

We're going to be attempting our first live stream with Mark Sudduth from Hurricanetrack.com today at 4PM Eastern. Cross your fingers since this could be a nice feature for the board.

viewtopic.php?p=2171503#p2171503

[Dave]

[SNOW_JOKE]

No idea what happened to the guy who jumped into the water off-camera Fort Lauderdale, there was one guy who raised the alarm soon after but nothing since.

Anyway ahead of the squall in Miami another streaming camera with a different perspective. http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamibeach/

[ncbird]

Just from the anecdotal comments on this forum and responses from our friends and family .... geez, I'm very concerned that millions of people won't be ready for Irene.

I'm encountering very similar apathy on a discussion board with hundreds of East Coasters. I'm trying to warn them, to no avail.

Well I'm taking this very seriously so this is one East Coaster who is getting prepared. I went through the snowstorm in new england last winter and that was bad enough. People need to understand nature is not a play thing it can be devastating.

If you are having problems getting people who haven't been through a cat 3 hurricane to take this seriously, send them over to you tube and tell them to do a search for Hurricane Fran, Carolina Beach. Fran was a cat 3 also and there is a very good video there of actual footage. It can give them some thing to think about as to weather they are up to riding this out.

NCBird

[Dave]

223
URNT15 KNHC 251645
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 08 20110825
163530 2619N 08052W 3761 08027 0411 -178 //// 336005 006 /// /// 05
163600 2617N 08050W 3761 08027 0411 -180 //// 343006 006 /// /// 05
163630 2615N 08048W 3762 08027 0411 -180 //// 326006 006 /// /// 05
163700 2613N 08046W 3765 08023 0412 -180 //// 315006 007 /// /// 05
163730 2611N 08044W 3762 08024 0410 -180 //// 323007 008 /// /// 05
163800 2610N 08043W 3762 08023 0409 -180 //// 309010 011 /// /// 05
163830 2608N 08041W 3761 08025 0408 -180 //// 322011 011 /// /// 05
163900 2606N 08039W 3762 08022 0407 -180 //// 322011 012 /// /// 05
163930 2604N 08037W 3762 08022 0407 -175 //// 310012 013 /// /// 05
164000 2602N 08035W 3762 08022 0407 -175 //// 307013 013 /// /// 05
164030 2600N 08033W 3762 08023 0407 -175 //// 297013 014 /// /// 05
164100 2558N 08031W 3761 08025 0407 -175 //// 292014 014 /// /// 05
164130 2556N 08029W 3762 08024 0407 -176 //// 288013 014 /// /// 05
164200 2554N 08027W 3762 08020 0406 -176 //// 311012 014 /// /// 05
164230 2552N 08025W 3761 08024 0406 -177 //// 319015 016 /// /// 05
164300 2550N 08023W 3759 08026 0405 -176 //// 304018 019 /// /// 05
164330 2548N 08021W 3761 08020 0403 -175 //// 301017 018 /// /// 05
164400 2547N 08018W 3761 08022 0402 -175 //// 297016 017 /// /// 05
164430 2547N 08015W 3773 08000 0405 -172 //// 297015 016 /// /// 05
164500 2546N 08012W 3854 07850 0403 -166 //// 322017 019 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Eye dead center over Abbaco island... still wobbling more to the left.

[Terry]

Wow. Jersey Gov considering mandatory evacuations. Voluntary now.

[Dave]

Anyone have the updated kmz file for nhc plots? If so drop the link here.

[Ivanhater]

There is a model thread..keep model runs in that thread.

[Dave]

409
URNT15 KNHC 251655
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 09 20110825
164530 2545N 08010W 3918 07715 0385 -158 //// 337019 020 /// /// 05
164600 2545N 08007W 3933 07684 0379 -153 //// 337018 019 /// /// 05
164630 2544N 08004W 4052 07464 0368 -137 //// 337019 020 040 004 01
164700 2544N 08001W 4188 07214 0353 -123 //// 346021 022 040 010 05
164730 2543N 07959W 4319 06977 0340 -108 //// 343019 020 039 004 05
164800 2542N 07956W 4463 06723 0322 -090 //// 332023 026 036 005 01
164830 2542N 07953W 4604 06481 0305 -074 //// 326028 030 035 004 01
164900 2541N 07951W 4750 06239 0288 -061 //// 326029 031 036 004 01
164930 2541N 07948W 4891 06010 0274 -046 //// 322030 031 039 004 01
165000 2540N 07945W 5064 05734 0255 -033 //// 322031 032 040 003 01
165030 2539N 07943W 5198 05522 0235 -020 //// 322030 032 040 003 05
165100 2539N 07940W 5235 05463 0229 -019 //// 334032 033 041 003 01
165130 2538N 07938W 5224 05478 0227 -020 //// 330035 037 041 002 01
165200 2538N 07936W 5254 05430 0225 -020 //// 324033 034 040 003 01
165230 2537N 07933W 5410 05198 0214 -011 //// 328032 032 041 003 01
165300 2537N 07931W 5577 04954 //// +003 //// 329033 036 040 004 01
165330 2536N 07928W 5769 04694 //// +018 //// 323036 040 040 005 01
165400 2536N 07926W 5958 04427 //// +031 //// 328037 040 040 006 01
165430 2535N 07924W 6143 04180 //// +040 //// 337035 036 040 007 05
165500 2535N 07922W 6316 03955 //// +052 //// 344032 034 039 006 01
$$
;


Decending to operational altitude

[MGC]

Yea, looking at the Miami long range radar it appears the the hurricane is headed NNW. Should ride the Gulf Stream all the way to NC.....unless shear kicks up I doubt there is a major weakening until landfall. Should be a strong Cat-2 when it passes over the Tidewater area. The shore will get creamed by the large surf. Wonder if anything will be left of the VA Beach boardwalk?.......MGC

[jlauderdal]

Nice view of Irene's eye on long-range Miami radar if interested ...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

We really dodged a bullet with this one in South Florida, so I'm sending good vibes to anyone farther up the coast!

i expect an urban flood advisory real soon if this continues, pouring big time on the coast

[Dave]

[HurricaneWarning92]

Nice view of Irene's eye on long-range Miami radar if interested ...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

We really dodged a bullet with this one in South Florida, so I'm sending good vibes to anyone farther up the coast!

I agree. We've been dodging bullets since Wilma '05. We are a little overdue as well. Not that it matters, because mother nature doesnt care whether a city is overdue or not, but just saying.

[GoneBabyGone]

There is a model thread..keep model runs in that thread.

If model runs are meant to be kept in the model thread, and discussions of the storm and where it's going to hit and its impact are to be kept in the discussion thread, how is one supposed to discuss the new potential impacts of a new model run of a storm?

[Dave]

373
URNT15 KNHC 251705
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 10 20110825
165530 2534N 07919W 6505 03710 //// +068 //// 350033 034 038 004 01
165600 2534N 07917W 6690 03478 //// +078 //// 354034 036 060 008 05
165630 2533N 07915W 6896 03227 //// +092 //// 348036 037 040 001 05
165700 2533N 07913W 6964 03125 //// +106 //// 350038 039 037 002 01
165730 2532N 07911W 6965 03121 //// +106 //// 349037 037 037 003 01
165800 2532N 07909W 6968 03117 //// +105 //// 346038 039 037 003 01
165830 2531N 07907W 6965 03119 //// +108 //// 344041 041 038 004 05
165900 2531N 07905W 6968 03114 //// +107 //// 344044 044 039 002 01
165930 2530N 07903W 6968 03114 //// +108 //// 341046 046 039 001 05
170000 2530N 07901W 6966 03114 //// +109 //// 336045 046 040 002 01
170030 2529N 07858W 6966 03114 //// +108 //// 330045 045 041 001 01
170100 2529N 07856W 6967 03113 //// +110 //// 329043 044 041 001 05
170130 2528N 07854W 6966 03112 //// +106 //// 327043 043 040 002 01
170200 2528N 07852W 6967 03109 //// +105 //// 325042 043 041 000 05
170230 2527N 07850W 6967 03107 //// +105 //// 320041 041 041 000 05
170300 2527N 07847W 6967 03106 //// +105 //// 314040 041 042 001 01
170330 2526N 07845W 6967 03104 //// +103 //// 314040 041 041 000 05
170400 2526N 07843W 6965 03106 //// +103 //// 319040 040 /// /// 05
170430 2527N 07842W 6970 03097 //// +100 //// 318040 041 038 001 01
170500 2528N 07840W 6966 03102 //// +100 //// 321043 044 038 000 01
$$
;


At operations...

[Ivanhater]

There is a model thread..keep model runs in that thread.

If model runs are meant to be kept in the model thread, and discussions of the storm and where it's going to hit and its impact are to be kept in the discussion thread, how is one supposed to discuss the new potential impacts of a new model run of a storm?

If related to the actual model run and the impact of that particular run, then it should go in the model thread.