ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

These are actual squalls from Irene, not seabreeze style showers like you call it. I do agree, those strong gusts that have been reported during the squalls may not be due to pressure gradient.

These? circled in red - are actual squalls from the storm? Shouldn't there be more? I'm just curious. Since they popped up when they hit land, I assumed what happened was the stronger (than static) wind from the storm forced convection when it hit the more calm air over land. Mayhaps they were tehre, but when hitting land they just got stronger (and more visible)

Don't the more typical squall lines (aka feeder bands?) simply advect from the storm? Well in any event the more static air is likely gone from the first sweep so if we get another set we'll know. I suppose it doesn't matter, the point was that the winds folks were freaking about earlier are pretty much settled down now, and that those winds were local - not sustained TS winds.



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I was talking about the squalls that hit the coastal areas earlier this morning, I watched them all night long as they circulated around Irene.

[Stephanie]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/risk/index.shtml?gm

Storm surge for NJ in a Category 2 storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Question about the Outer Banks - what's their highest elevation? Average? I'm thinking that Irene's surge may completely inundate the Outer Banks and wash much of it away.

surge with this type of track will likely be very high. the flow of the gulf stream will aid the surge towards the coast. going to be a huge problem i would Imagine.

[AdamFirst]

My friends in the New York metro area are blowing this off, as predicted. I'm imploring them on Facebook to get ready.

[ozonepete]

Dunno...it has been almost over since last night...really, if it is going to intensify, it has to do it now since north of 30N, waters would probably be too cold for intensification beyond what it is now.

Waters are plenty warm all the way to the N.C/VA border, not to mention the gulf stream is just off the coast all the way up to the Delmarva.

Looking at the track, it will actually be going into progressively colder waters until it closes in on the coast, when it approaches the Gulf Stream. Waters will be about 80/81, which are OK for maintaining the storm, but not intensifying it.[/quote]

Be careful there, Mark. A hurricane can easily intensify over 80F water. And they can maintain over water as low as 74F if conditions are right.

[capepoint]

That track looks really bad for Wilmington.

Yea not looking good for us here in NC. Guess I better batten down the hatches and have the hubby board up the windows.

NCBird

Hi Bird, my hurricane friend! We might just leave, looks as the track's gone westward once again. What a rollercoaster, but tomorrow we'll be pretty certain!

If the latest tracks verify, New Bern could get up to 8-10 feet of water (or more) from the river, plus up to 100 mph winds. Go ahead and make reservations somewhere and plan to get out tomorrow morning. Take a weekend trip to the mountains or something. This one is not the one to mess with.

[Raebie]

Question about the Outer Banks - what's their highest elevation? Average? I'm thinking that Irene's surge may completely inundate the Outer Banks and wash much of it away.

Not very high...

http://www.enr.state.nc.us/images/obxdunes.pdf

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

These are actual squalls from Irene, not seabreeze style showers like you call it. I do agree, those strong gusts that have been reported during the squalls may not be due to pressure gradient.

These? circled in red - are actual squalls from the storm? Shouldn't there be more? I'm just curious. Since they popped up when they hit land, I assumed what happened was the stronger (than static) wind from the storm forced convection when it hit the more calm air over land. Mayhaps they were tehre, but when hitting land they just got stronger (and more visible)

Don't the more typical squall lines (aka feeder bands?) simply advect from the storm? Well in any event the more static air is likely gone from the first sweep so if we get another set we'll know. I suppose it doesn't matter, the point was that the winds folks were freaking about earlier are pretty much settled down now, and that those winds were local - not sustained TS winds.



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I was talking about the squalls that hit the coastal areas earlier this morning, I watched them all night long as they circulated around Irene.

OK this I understand.

[MGC]

The track shift west is a problem....Just got off the phone with my Yankee daughter-in-law who thinks she has been through a hurricane because she has been through the weak west side of a couple of minor hurricanes. They live near VA Beach and are now near ground zero...if the 11am track holds they will be in the west eyewall. Any track west of forecast will put them in the eye or RFQ. Son called and I asked him if he has gotten any hurricane supplies....long silence then he answers NO. I told him he might as well leave tomorrow for is inlaws and not stay. They have 4 kids under 10. Heaven help them. I might have to go up there and kick some butt...

Irene looks to be getting reorganized this morning. I expect the hurricane to get a bit stronger today and tomorrow. Ya'll up the east coast had better get it together ASAP!....MGC

[Portastorm]

Just from the anecdotal comments on this forum and responses from our friends and family .... geez, I'm very concerned that millions of people won't be ready for Irene.

[lothianjavert]

I am definitely concerned. I did some non-perishable grocery shopping yesterday and will pick up a few more items today after work. I wish that we had plywood for the windows, though that may be overkill. I don't have enough left over polycarbonate to do more than about 6 windows. Hopefully it isn't needed. I have a few tarps, but will pick up some more. The propane tank was just filled, so that should give us about a week of electricity if Big Bertha (generator) runs around the clock.

I'm confused that no one else seems even remotely concerned, and the news outlets aren't really saying much yet. There were a few people buying water, etc. yesterday at the store, but generally most I've spoken to don't seem to think anything will happen other than having to pick up a few stray tree branches. Whether it does or doesn't cause major damage, the lack of concern is rather concerning because of the potential dangers involved. Most local gov't sites say nothing.

I agree about most seeming completely unconcerned. I live on the eastern shore of MD and work in PA. No one (in my office or at home) here seems that terribly concerned. The radio stations this morning were calling for scattered rain showers on Sunday with maybe some strong wind gusts. It is being played down publicly, and most people in this area are not familiar with hurricanes and really don't know what to expect/do, other than that they don't expect it to be able to affect them. On the flipside, here at work, they are pulling out all the emergency equipment- particularly the large vehicles (disaster response units, etc.) and checking them over, testing, and making sure they are ready, same goes for the generators. So, preparations are being made, just rather quietly at this point.

As per Google Earth, I live 72 miles inland from where Ike crossed the Texas coastline. We had close to 80 mph winds that far inland, took a tree to the house, was without electricity for 13 days and 14 hrs(and our utilities are underground). The winds from a hurricane are relentless, thery will go on for hours and hours, and if you happen to be in the eye, you will get an eerie calm and then bam, the winds start again, from a different direction and usually just as strong, so that tree that was on your west side of the house and sheltered from the winds is all of a sudden unprotected.

My point is, don't take this too lightly. Don't go outside to watch, flying debris is very dangerous. And make sure you buy as many blue tarps from the big hardware stores as you can, bececause you will have roof damage(you can always take them back if unopened)

Tim in Spring TX

[GoneBabyGone]

At this point, is there really any reasonable scenario where someone doesn't get blasted? Barring a major turn east much sooner than any model is predicting...

[GCANE]

Popping more eyewall hot-towers, eye coming back.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[BlueIce]

I have been watching the visible loop from NASA GOES East 1. It looks like the eye is about to clear out.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html <- Live feed


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[Stephanie]

At this point, is there really any reasonable scenario where someone doesn't get blasted? Barring a major turn east much sooner than any model is predicting...

Not unless the ridge totally breaks down or a potent trough comes swinging through that none of the models have seen.

[baitism]

Yeah, ERC looks to be about done. It might ramp up today into tonight.

[sandyb]

looks like now the eye will come right over us they are reporting on the weather channel morehead city/atlantic beach hum our local mets called that two days ago...makes me have more faith in them than i did earlier,

[Raebie]

This is making me crazy...don't know if the kids should head out of Wilmington or not at this point.

[capepoint]

Question about the Outer Banks - what's their highest elevation? Average? I'm thinking that Irene's surge may completely inundate the Outer Banks and wash much of it away.

Not very high, some higher dunes, but mostly 3 to 6 feet. I believe MHX has some surge maps on their site that may show elevation. I know in carteret county the highest location is 22 feet on a bluff in morehead city.
The outer banks always get inundated in major hurricanes. Ocracoke Island and Hatteras Island have reported during many storms that the sea met the sound over the entire island. North of Avon and Rodanthe, in the Pea Island Refuge, NC12 always gets overwashed, and during storms of this strenth, the roadway is always washed away and covered with sand. A new inlet was cut thru Hatteras Island between Buxton and Hatteras Village during one of the storms a few years ago, but was closed back in by the state. The new one on Core Banks (Cape Lookout National Seashore) still remains. With the current track and strenth of this storm, I would expect that there will be some new inlets along the OBX next week, and possibly even in Carteret and Onslow counties. Donna and Hazel opened inlets there as well.

in addition, we have been having higher than normal astronomical tides this week. Been running about a foot higher than normal. High tide here has been around 6pm or so. Not good.

[cheezyWXguy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/risk/index.shtml?gm

Storm surge for NJ in a Category 2 storm.

Yeah, that looks bad enough, but remember that Irene is an enormous storm, comparable in size to Ike, which means estimates for a "category 2 surge" would be rather conservative. Even if this storm weakens to a one, due to its massive size and former strength, there could be a huge surge with this.