ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Deputy Van Halen]

Are there any good resources online regarding current and potential evacuation traffic?

I'm vacationing right now between Richmond and Charlottesville, VA, expecting to be heading back west by car tomorrow. You wouldn't think there would be traffic congestion from evacuees this far inland, but you never know what will happen if panic ensues. Just witness the Rita traffic in '05.

This is of more concern to my brother, who is leaving here to go to Raleigh on Saturday.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251353
AF300 1909A IRENE HDOB 50 20110825
134330 2635N 07551W 6962 03049 //// +069 //// 126088 091 061 016 01
134400 2634N 07552W 6964 03043 //// +069 //// 128085 093 062 017 01
134430 2633N 07553W 6971 03033 //// +072 //// 134076 077 063 014 01
134500 2632N 07554W 6967 03033 //// +076 //// 131081 084 062 012 01
134530 2631N 07556W 6971 03030 //// +073 //// 131079 083 062 013 01
134600 2629N 07557W 6963 03029 //// +076 //// 135080 081 062 013 01
134630 2628N 07558W 6963 03025 //// +075 //// 132079 080 061 017 01
134700 2627N 07600W 6964 03024 //// +071 //// 131083 084 061 014 01
134730 2626N 07601W 6968 03009 //// +080 //// 132081 082 065 008 01
134800 2625N 07602W 6967 03007 //// +089 //// 130081 082 070 008 01
134830 2624N 07604W 6971 02997 //// +079 //// 129078 078 068 008 01
134900 2622N 07605W 6966 02998 //// +093 //// 127083 084 069 005 01
134930 2621N 07606W 6970 02985 //// +094 //// 130080 081 065 004 01
135000 2620N 07608W 6966 02984 9838 +105 //// 128076 077 065 005 01
135030 2619N 07609W 6966 02976 //// +101 //// 128078 079 064 006 01
135100 2618N 07610W 6969 02966 9828 +102 //// 128080 082 064 008 01
135130 2616N 07612W 6967 02960 //// +088 //// 131082 083 065 009 01
135200 2615N 07613W 6969 02952 //// +089 //// 132084 084 066 012 01
135230 2614N 07614W 6966 02947 //// +085 //// 132086 090 068 014 01
135300 2613N 07615W 6963 02943 //// +086 //// 133085 086 070 016 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, watching that long range radar, does it concern you as much as it does me? Or is the long range not give a true direction?

its extremly hard to determine motion at that distance on radar. it does give some clues though. I have been plotting recon positions with radar on my GR and matching the center fixes with what little reflections on radar available that far out and it seems the inner eye is beginning to breakdown and really wobble all over the place.. the outer eye still seems to be on a NW course but has wobbled left a little more over the last couple hours. just have to keep watching.. The center is not going to make it to the coast but more area may get more TS force winds later if the wobbles keep up..

[tina25]

Just moved to NYC and I am amazed at the lack of media coverage here regarding Irene. Noone is even talking about it at work. It almost makes me feel like there is nothing to worry about. I guess they don't want 8 million people panicking at once?

[capepoint]

here is my area forecast... still calling for TS conditions

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-80.6002

I'll trade ya for $20! http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-77.0788

I wish I had the money to come up and chase it... stupid economy..

i think it's chasing me....lol

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Shouldn't WPB at minimum be under a T.S. Watch??

Why? Sustained TS winds are miles offshore, as in nearly 70 miles away.

[CronkPSU]

little breezier than a normal summer morning here in NW Orlando...definitely feels muggier

[UpTheCreek]

i think it's chasing me....lol

Just might chase us out of here. Still undecided, will know more tomorrow. Beaufort is certainly going to have a huge water event.

[hurricaneCW]

Just moved to NYC and I am amazed at the lack of media coverage here regarding Irene. Noone is even talking about it at work. It almost makes me feel like there is nothing to worry about. I guess they don't want 8 million people panicking at once?

There's that complacency, I don't think most people realize the damage a storm like this can cause, I think a lot of people think the storm is going to miss them or not really affect them. I think tomorrow will really be the day when it will hit everybody if the track is the same or the track shows a direct hit on the city or just to the west or east.

[GCANE]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hVfVxSYPxM[/youtube]

[deltadog03]

She doesn't look too good this am.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251403
AF300 1909A IRENE HDOB 51 20110825
135330 2612N 07616W 6969 02930 //// +098 //// 135084 085 068 012 01
135400 2610N 07617W 6968 02923 9773 +109 //// 132084 085 066 009 01
135430 2609N 07617W 6965 02920 9769 +104 //// 131084 084 065 009 01
135500 2608N 07618W 6970 02904 //// +092 //// 129085 086 066 010 01
135530 2606N 07619W 6971 02895 //// +092 //// 127084 085 067 012 01
135600 2605N 07620W 6964 02892 //// +088 //// 128085 087 068 013 01
135630 2604N 07621W 6970 02869 //// +093 //// 132092 093 070 025 01
135700 2603N 07621W 6963 02868 //// +099 //// 136086 091 070 032 01
135730 2601N 07622W 6973 02845 //// +105 //// 139072 074 074 025 01
135800 2600N 07623W 6978 02834 //// +106 //// 137066 067 076 018 01
135830 2559N 07624W 6972 02834 //// +105 //// 140064 065 073 015 01
135900 2558N 07625W 6959 02840 //// +100 //// 143064 065 070 013 01
135930 2556N 07625W 6971 02818 9643 +123 //// 142066 067 065 008 01
140000 2555N 07626W 6960 02823 9630 +119 //// 138067 070 058 014 05
140030 2554N 07627W 6978 02789 9615 +130 //// 138067 068 055 007 01
140100 2553N 07629W 6967 02794 9601 +130 //// 140067 068 056 019 01
140130 2551N 07630W 6966 02779 //// +101 //// 145061 064 056 026 05
140200 2550N 07631W 6962 02777 //// +111 //// 150055 056 058 013 01
140230 2549N 07632W 6967 02760 9552 +136 //// 150051 053 058 009 05
140300 2548N 07633W 6967 02752 9526 +145 //// 153046 047 058 007 05
$$
;

Nearing the eye. 953mb so far but winds still strong.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KWBC 251347
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 25/1328Z
B. 25 DEG 37 MIN N
76 DEG 43 MIN W
C. NA
D. 81 KT
E. 357 DEG 18 NM
F. 091 DEG 100 KT
G. 358 DEG 24 NM
H. 952 MB
I. 13 C/2431 M
J. 21 C/2449 M
K. 17 C/NA
L. OPEN S
M. C15
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2009A IRENE OB 27
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 90KTS S 1336Z

[jhpigott]

Wow, 50 knot wind gust so far at Jupiter Inlet this morning, where are the Tropical Storm Warnings for at least the immediate coast!

http://www.evsjupiter.com/weather/summary.gif

what does 58 knots equate to in mph?

[CrazyC83]

Just moved to NYC and I am amazed at the lack of media coverage here regarding Irene. Noone is even talking about it at work. It almost makes me feel like there is nothing to worry about. I guess they don't want 8 million people panicking at once?

Just wait until the Hurricane Watch is issued. But they say the most dangerous part of a NYC hurricane is the New Yorker. Many there believe hurricanes can't happen there. They are wrong.

[CrazyC83]

Wow, 50 knot wind gust so far at Jupiter Inlet this morning, where are the Tropical Storm Warnings for at least the immediate coast!

http://www.evsjupiter.com/weather/summary.gif

what does 53knots equate to in mph?

58 kt = about 67 mph.

[HurrMark]

She doesn't look too good this am.

Not at all. I think this may be the saving grace for the East Coast...it is taking forever for this EWRC to complete, and conditions don't look that great for strengthening.

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the data, I would put the intensity at 95 kt.

[deltadog03]

agreed....I think she is def. feeling the effects of that trof (to some degree) She has really slowed down....

[Lowpressure]

She doesn't look too good this am.

Not at all. I think this may be the saving grace for the East Coast...it is taking forever for this EWRC to complete, and conditions don't look that great for strengthening.

Hurricane center sees it differently

IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS
WAS HALTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EVENT AS SUGGESTED BY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO.