ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[caneman]

Is it just me or does Irene look like it is going to get a lot closer to Florida than advertised?? Look at the cloud it is still pointed NW

[viberama]

Is it just me or does Irene look like it is going to get a lot closer to Florida than advertised?? Look at the cloud it is still pointed NW

Recon is showing the NNW turn is happening now and Irene actually missed her track. So if this continues she will be even farther from Florida. Not by much granted but just a little farther east than the track.

[jhpigott]

Is it just me or does Irene look like it is going to get a lot closer to Florida than advertised?? Look at the cloud it is still pointed NW

It looks to me like the NNW heading has started. NWS/NHC is saying closest point of approach to FL is approx 190 miles. Should track over or just east of the Abacos.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[InRRwetrust]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251123
AF300 1909A IRENE HDOB 35 20110825
111330 2644N 07615W 6971 03083 //// +049 //// 091084 085 052 006 01
111400 2644N 07618W 6967 03086 //// +050 //// 090083 084 050 007 01
111430 2644N 07620W 6965 03091 0012 +065 //// 088082 082 051 006 01
111500 2644N 07623W 6967 03086 0005 +069 //// 085083 084 051 007 01
111530 2644N 07626W 6967 03086 9991 +081 +078 084086 086 051 007 00
111600 2645N 07629W 6970 03086 9996 +077 //// 084087 087 052 007 01
111630 2645N 07631W 6967 03086 0002 +074 //// 081085 086 052 006 01
111700 2645N 07634W 6963 03092 0003 +072 //// 080082 083 052 007 01
111730 2645N 07637W 6971 03084 0001 +074 //// 082076 078 052 006 01
111800 2645N 07639W 6967 03087 9993 +079 //// 081072 075 051 006 01
111830 2645N 07642W 6965 03088 9973 +095 +084 076075 077 051 006 00
111900 2646N 07645W 6964 03093 9992 +082 //// 076077 079 050 006 01
111930 2646N 07647W 6968 03094 9978 +097 +080 076070 074 048 005 00
112000 2646N 07650W 6961 03102 9966 +105 +080 075066 067 047 004 00
112030 2646N 07652W 6966 03094 9985 +090 +081 075069 071 047 006 00
112100 2646N 07655W 6968 03094 9989 +088 +081 073067 069 047 005 00
112130 2646N 07658W 6969 03092 9977 +098 +083 073066 067 045 006 00
112200 2646N 07700W 6960 03105 9998 +081 //// 078068 070 047 006 01
112230 2647N 07703W 6968 03096 9987 +090 //// 071068 069 047 005 01
112300 2647N 07705W 6967 03098 9988 +091 //// 070069 070 048 005 01

[CronkPSU]

wow, took a big jog north last night while I was asleep, was well west of the target points all night, now moved back east of the NHC line...looks like right now it is back to being at the NNW track they expected

[mutley]

Is it just me or does Irene look like it is going to get a lot closer to Florida than advertised?? Look at the cloud it is still pointed NW

Looks like it to me too. Maybe it's just because it is a bit uncomfortable watching it go by us.

[GCANE]

Very impressive core for an Atlantic TC.

Once she finishes the EWRC, she should really crank.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif

IMHO, maybe sometime tonight, she should hit her max intensity.

[cpdaman]

The nnw turn arrived. Really headin true nnw for laar 3 hours.

[mutley]

Visible:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Extent of 10 second "hurricane force" surface wind as estimated by SFMR to the west for comparison to Nassau:

[Meso]

Past 2 or 3 hours she has been looking quite rugged on IR sat imagery but as of the latest couple of frames it appears as though she's taking shape again quite nicely. With 116kt flight level winds it also seems that we may be heading into a strengthening period now. Will be interesting once this eye clear out.

[InRRwetrust]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251146
AF300 1909A IRENE HDOB 37 20110825
113330 2647N 07754W 6974 03106 0011 +090 +087 064052 052 /// /// 03
113400 2646N 07753W 6971 03110 0003 +093 +084 064051 051 /// /// 03
113430 2645N 07752W 6973 03105 0002 +094 +084 064054 055 /// /// 03
113500 2644N 07751W 6967 03113 9996 +096 +088 066055 055 /// /// 03
113530 2643N 07749W 6966 03114 9997 +096 +090 067056 057 /// /// 03
113600 2642N 07748W 6967 03108 9989 +102 +086 069056 056 /// /// 03
113630 2640N 07747W 6967 03106 9990 +099 +085 069059 061 /// /// 03
113700 2639N 07746W 6963 03111 9990 +097 +085 066058 060 /// /// 03
113730 2639N 07744W 6971 03098 9984 +102 +084 066055 057 /// /// 03
113800 2638N 07743W 6964 03105 9976 +105 +084 064051 051 /// /// 03
113830 2637N 07741W 6969 03101 9975 +105 +085 063049 050 /// /// 03
113900 2636N 07740W 6967 03100 9979 +100 +086 059047 047 /// /// 03
113930 2635N 07738W 6961 03104 9975 +101 +085 056048 049 /// /// 03
114000 2635N 07737W 6966 03097 9971 +104 +082 054048 049 /// /// 03
114030 2634N 07735W 6971 03093 9969 +104 +082 053049 050 /// /// 03
114100 2634N 07733W 6969 03090 9976 +098 +083 051052 052 /// /// 03
114130 2634N 07732W 6958 03099 9968 +101 +083 051052 053 /// /// 03
114200 2633N 07730W 6971 03084 9973 +095 +084 054055 056 /// /// 03
114230 2633N 07729W 6967 03083 9970 +096 +085 052056 057 /// /// 03
114300 2633N 07727W 6968 03080 9974 +091 +084 050055 056 /// /// 03

[jlauderdal]

[drezee]

And becuase I love you guys so much one more...

The 12z point for the NHC is 25.5N andf 76.5W

Distance between

N Latitude 25 30 0.00, W Longitude 76 30 0.00 (Point 1)

and N Latitude 24 3 0.00, W Longitude 75 49 0.00 (Point 2)



174.846 kilometers; 108.644 miles
Azimuth from point 2 to point 1 = 336.98°

It has to move NNW from here to hit that point...will it...

Ok, I am up now...and it missed the NHC forcast point
latest recon point is exactly 13.711 miles due south of that forecast point 49 minutes before the 12z mark...

[FireRat]

YEP, the turn has begun indeed. Moving NNW in the last 3 hours perhaps at around 322-323 degrees.

Looks to actually be on track, it was a real close call with all those westward wobbles last night. It should pass Miami's Latitude in 5 hours and then South Florida will be 100% in the clear and we'll just see a few gusty showers after all.

[InRRwetrust]

000
URNT15 KWBC 251158
NOAA3 2009A IRENE HDOB 19 20110825
114830 2420N 07812W 7512 02477 9984 +146 +104 322034 035 /// /// 03
114900 2418N 07810W 7513 02476 9983 +145 +106 317033 033 /// /// 03
114930 2418N 07808W 7515 02472 9980 +148 +101 313033 034 /// /// 03
115000 2419N 07806W 7514 02472 9977 +149 +102 317034 034 /// /// 03
115030 2420N 07804W 7515 02470 9979 +144 +105 319032 033 /// /// 03
115100 2422N 07802W 7513 02469 9969 +152 +101 320030 030 /// /// 03
115130 2423N 07801W 7514 02465 9962 +157 +101 319029 030 /// /// 03
115200 2425N 07759W 7515 02461 9958 +158 +102 315029 030 /// /// 03
115230 2426N 07758W 7514 02460 9955 +159 +102 313031 033 /// /// 03
115300 2427N 07756W 7514 02460 9957 +156 +104 314036 038 /// /// 03
115330 2429N 07754W 7515 02457 9962 +148 +106 320040 042 /// /// 03
115400 2430N 07753W 7515 02452 9957 +149 +108 326046 047 /// /// 03
115430 2432N 07751W 7514 02452 9956 +147 +110 326047 048 /// /// 03
115500 2433N 07750W 7514 02448 9955 +144 +116 325047 048 /// /// 03
115530 2434N 07749W 7513 02447 9955 +140 +122 327050 051 /// /// 03
115600 2436N 07747W 7514 02443 9953 +139 +117 326050 051 /// /// 03
115630 2437N 07746W 7515 02437 9940 +150 +105 322052 053 /// /// 03
115700 2439N 07744W 7515 02435 9936 +149 +110 324053 053 /// /// 03
115730 2440N 07743W 7513 02435 9938 +142 +118 328057 059 /// /// 03
115800 2441N 07741W 7517 02426 9929 +144 +142 334054 057 /// /// 03

[TheBurn]

Morning view

[InRRwetrust]

Anyone care to continue please?
000
URNT15 KNHC 251203
AF300 1909A IRENE HDOB 39 20110825
115330 2608N 07711W 6968 03012 9889 +095 //// 069079 081 /// /// 05
115400 2607N 07710W 6970 03012 //// +075 //// 067079 080 /// /// 05
115430 2606N 07709W 6964 03016 //// +079 //// 068078 079 /// /// 05
115500 2605N 07707W 6966 03005 9869 +102 //// 066077 077 /// /// 05
115530 2604N 07706W 6971 02994 9856 +109 //// 065074 074 /// /// 05
115600 2603N 07705W 6966 02996 9845 +111 +102 065072 073 /// /// 03
115630 2602N 07704W 6970 02989 9838 +115 +098 063070 071 /// /// 03
115700 2601N 07703W 6967 02982 9827 +118 +098 063074 074 /// /// 03
115730 2600N 07702W 6967 02979 9824 +115 +103 061076 077 /// /// 03
115800 2559N 07700W 6969 02968 9824 +107 +107 060078 079 /// /// 03
115830 2558N 07659W 6971 02960 9814 +108 //// 064084 087 /// /// 05
115900 2557N 07658W 6965 02957 9800 +110 //// 066086 087 /// /// 05
115930 2556N 07657W 6967 02946 9791 +110 +109 067088 089 /// /// 03
120000 2555N 07656W 6967 02935 9782 +110 //// 068087 088 /// /// 05
120030 2554N 07655W 6966 02925 9770 +109 //// 067085 086 /// /// 05
120100 2553N 07654W 6967 02916 9768 +100 //// 067091 093 /// /// 05
120130 2552N 07653W 6970 02897 //// +087 //// 065084 090 /// /// 05
120200 2551N 07652W 6968 02894 //// +095 //// 068085 087 /// /// 05
120230 2550N 07650W 6968 02880 //// +099 //// 068084 090 /// /// 05
120300 2549N 07649W 6979 02853 //// +100 //// 070071 075 /// /// 05

[kamqercam]

The governor defended her suggestion on Tuesday that tourists hold off on canceling vacation plans on the Outer Banks as Irene approaches.

"We have learned over the years that sometimes there are predictor models that change, and if we do react strongly early on – several days before the storm hits North Carolina – we do some significant damage to the coastal economy,” she said. “It’s a really fine line that you have to walk.”