ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2011
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an Air Force reconnaissance plane estimated a minimum pressure of
952 mb...but the maximum wind reported so far was 99 knots at
flight level. The overall cloud pattern has not changed
significantly during the past few hours and satellite intensity
estimates still support 105 knots. I will wait for the plane to
finish sampling the hurricane before reducing the winds a little
bit...if necessary. By inspecting an earlier trmm pass from 2216
UTC...and and ssmis at 0024 UTC...one can observe concentric
convective rings suggesting that an eyewall replacement cycle is
occurring. These two eyewalls were also reported by the Air Force
reconnaissance plane. This eyewall cycle will likely result in some
fluctuations in intensity during the next few hours...but the trend
is for Irene to intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.
In 2 to 3 days....Irene should begin to gradually weaken as the
hurricane encounters increasing southwesterly shear and cooler
SSTs. Irene is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane...
or even grow in size...as it moves near the northeastern United
States.


The eye of the hurricane has been moving near or over some of the
Bahamas resulting is some wobbling. The best estimate of the
initial motion is toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 10 knots.
The development of the large trough along the East Coast of the
United States is materializing as predicted by the global models.
This steering pattern will force Irene to turn toward the
north-northwest and the north with a slight increase in forward
speed over the next few days. The latest guidance has changed very
little...and perhaps the only difference is that the GFS shifted 30
N mi to the west...toward the ECMWF solution during the last
portion of the forecast. This does not result in a significant
change of the official forecast track from the previous one.


Because Irene is a large cyclone...tropical storm and hurricane
watches will likely be required for a portion of the coast of the
Carolinas early Thursday.




Forecast positions and Max winds


init 25/0300z 23.8n 75.4w 105 kt 120 mph
12h 25/1200z 25.5n 76.5w 110 kt 125 mph
24h 26/0000z 27.5n 77.3w 115 kt 135 mph
36h 26/1200z 29.5n 77.4w 110 kt 125 mph
48h 27/0000z 31.5n 77.0w 105 kt 120 mph
72h 28/0000z 36.0n 75.2w 90 kt 105 mph
96h 29/0000z 42.5n 72.0w 75 kt 85 mph
120h 30/0000z 50.0n 67.0w 45 kt 50 mph...Post-trop/extratrop


$$
forecaster Avila










Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on August 25, 2011


...Eye of dangerous Hurricane Irene nearing the northwestern
Bahamas...




summary of 200 am EDT...0600 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...24.2n 76.0w
about 105 mi...165 km ESE of Nassau
about 760 mi...1225 km S of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
maximum sustained winds...115 mph...185 km/h
present movement...NW or 315 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...950 mb...28.05 inches




watches and warnings
--------------------
changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...


none


summary of watches and warnings in effect...


a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* the southeastern...central...and northwestern Bahamas


interests from the Carolinas northward through New England should
monitor the progress of Irene. Hurricane and tropical storm watches
will likely be required for portions of the coast of the Carolinas
this morning.


For storm information specific to your area in the United
States...including possible inland watches and warnings...please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States...please monitor products issued by your National
meteorological service.




Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 am EDT...0600 UTC...the eye of Hurricane Irene was located by
an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 24.2
north...longitude 76.0 west. Irene is moving toward the northwest
near 12 mph...19 km/h. A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected today...followed by a turn toward the north tonight. On
the forecast track...the core of the hurricane will move over the
northwestern Bahamas today...and pass well offshore of the East
Coast of central and North Florida tonight and early Friday.


Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 115
mph...185 km/h...with higher gusts. Irene is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Fluctuations
in intensity are likely during the next few hours...but some
strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.


Irene is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles...110 km...from the center...and tropical-
storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles...410 km.


The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force hurricane
hunters was 950 mb...28.05 inches.




Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...hurricane or tropical storm force winds are still occurring
over portions of the southeastern and the central Bahamas. Winds
will increase in the northwestern Bahamas...reaching hurricane
force later today.


Storm surge...in areas of onshore winds near the center of Irene...
an extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels over the Bahamas.
Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.


Rainfall...Irene is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6
to 12 inches over the Bahamas during the next 36 hours. Rains will
be diminishing across the Turks and Caicos Islands with additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches possible...bringing the maximum
storm total to 6 to 12 inches.


Surf...swells generated by Irene will begin affecting portions of
the coast of the southeastern United States on Thursday. These
swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local National
Weather Service forecast office.




Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...500 am EDT.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Bocadude85]

from the amazing folks in the recon thread..



looks like it will miss that point to the west...and if you notice, this is where the NHC expects the turn to happen, between this point coming up and the next...now we really start wobble watching and looking for the turn

Seems like Irene is making a run for Nassau.. though I sure that will change

[emeraldislencguy]

looks like it will be getting closer to emerald isle nc
what do some of yall think

[Dave]

059
URNT15 KNHC 250558
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 54 20110825
054800 2238N 07410W 6168 04134 0018 +035 +030 203054 054 031 000 03
054830 2237N 07408W 5980 04353 9998 +022 +008 206053 054 033 000 03
054900 2236N 07406W 5808 04594 9978 +011 -000 210052 052 031 000 00
054930 2235N 07404W 5643 04830 9983 -002 -021 207053 053 030 001 03
055000 2234N 07403W 5478 05084 0188 -018 -032 206052 053 030 001 03
055030 2233N 07401W 5339 05289 0207 -025 -068 213055 057 030 000 03
055100 2232N 07359W 5208 05493 0221 -034 -095 215058 058 031 000 03
055130 2231N 07357W 5083 05684 0235 -052 -101 216057 058 033 000 03
055200 2230N 07355W 4971 05862 0244 -063 -118 211055 056 /// /// 03
055230 2228N 07352W 4855 06048 0265 -071 -143 211055 056 /// /// 03
055300 2227N 07350W 4741 06243 0279 -090 -145 212053 054 037 000 03
055330 2226N 07348W 4630 06431 0291 -103 -152 210052 052 038 000 03
055400 2225N 07346W 4523 06604 0300 -117 -159 207051 052 036 000 03
055430 2224N 07344W 4420 06788 0316 -127 -159 207050 052 036 000 03
055500 2223N 07342W 4327 06951 0328 -132 -178 204052 052 036 000 03
055530 2221N 07340W 4239 07111 0340 -135 -193 199052 053 036 000 03
055600 2220N 07338W 4170 07236 0349 -143 -204 198052 052 036 000 03
055630 2219N 07336W 4101 07358 0358 -153 -209 198049 050 034 000 03
055700 2218N 07333W 4041 07478 0366 -157 -221 198049 050 032 001 03
055730 2217N 07331W 3984 07582 0373 -160 -225 197047 048 031 000 03
$$

Mission Over...

[Dave]

Someone else pick it up for awhile....thanks!

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250603
AF300 1909A IRENE HDOB 03 20110825
055330 1742N 06449W 0110 00016 0133 +275 +224 360000 000 /// /// 03
055400 1742N 06449W 0114 00018 0135 +275 +223 360000 000 /// /// 03
055430 1742N 06449W 0113 00019 0135 +273 +223 360000 000 /// /// 03
055500 1742N 06449W 0110 00018 0132 +268 +222 142007 010 /// /// 03
055530 1742N 06448W 9980 00127 0122 +263 +223 135016 018 /// /// 03
055600 1742N 06446W 9776 00311 0128 +246 +224 142018 019 /// /// 03
055630 1742N 06445W 9498 00570 0133 +228 +224 144019 020 /// /// 03
055700 1742N 06443W 9211 00837 0133 +214 //// 142019 020 /// /// 05
055730 1742N 06442W 8896 01137 //// +193 //// 143016 017 /// /// 05
055800 1743N 06440W 8606 01422 //// +180 //// 140018 019 /// /// 05
055830 1744N 06440W 8299 01732 //// +166 //// 134017 018 /// /// 05
055900 1746N 06441W 8020 02027 //// +150 //// 128014 015 /// /// 05
055930 1746N 06443W 7792 02269 //// +133 //// 123013 014 /// /// 05
060000 1747N 06444W 7542 02542 //// +119 //// 115012 014 /// /// 05
060030 1748N 06446W 7310 02804 //// +107 //// 122011 012 /// /// 05
060100 1749N 06448W 7111 03033 //// +094 //// 120011 012 /// /// 05
060130 1750N 06450W 6906 03276 //// +083 //// 106009 010 /// /// 05
060200 1751N 06451W 6711 03519 //// +074 //// 104008 008 /// /// 05
060230 1752N 06453W 6533 03741 0103 +067 //// 100006 008 /// /// 05
060300 1753N 06455W 6355 03967 0110 +049 +041 107005 007 /// /// 03
$$

[CronkPSU]

IR and RGB presentation looking better now...still more of a NW motion, still don't see NNW yet but that is scheduled to start anytime in the next 6-12 hours but it will miss the last NHC point to the west....the euro run yet?

[artist]

Can someone PLEASE take over the new flight?

[myred]

Ok I am not a board mod, but this bickering needs to stop. There is a potential catastrophic hurricane headed to various places and snow has nothing to do with hurricanes. Please get back on topic so those who are trying to find out useful and needed information can find it. Thanks!!

Well, actually this is very useful information. Let me explain why. I personally have lived in Florida for 20 years and in the New York/ New Jersey area for 30 years. people up north only have snow storms to compare to hurricanes because we don't get hurricanes up here. The big difference between a nor'easter and a hurricane is time of year.

This is not for NYC itself, but rather for the millions of people who just live in the burbs in the northeast.
During the winter, the ground is frozen and there are no leaves on the trees. All outdoor stuff is tucked away safely for the winter. The wind blows during a snow storm 50, 60 or 70 mph and some trees fall, but all in all, things stay standing.

In the summer, it is totally different. The ground is already saturated, The trees are in full bloom and they act like giant sails. People have projectiles all over their yards. There is a huge demand on the power grids running air conditioning. Almost everyone has overhead power lines rather than underground up here.

In my opinion, The bottom line is, if the northeast gets a direct hit from Irene it will be much worse than any nor'easter they have seen. Power outages will be a much longer duration, roads will be impassible due to flooding and trees down and water supplies could be contaminated. People up here, must take this storm seriously because this is not a snowstorm, it is a hurricane.

[artist]

have to go, someone take over

000
URNT15 KNHC 250613
AF300 1909A IRENE HDOB 04 20110825
060330 1753N 06456W 6204 04164 0109 +040 -016 110009 010 /// /// 03
060400 1754N 06458W 6062 04351 0123 +021 -026 103010 011 /// /// 03
060430 1755N 06500W 5920 04545 0124 +009 -020 086011 012 /// /// 03
060500 1756N 06501W 5784 04731 0112 +003 -041 078012 012 /// /// 03
060530 1757N 06503W 5666 04896 0107 -004 -045 086010 011 /// /// 03
060600 1758N 06505W 5548 05067 0112 -018 -052 096010 011 /// /// 03
060630 1759N 06506W 5437 05228 0277 -024 -073 117007 009 /// /// 03
060700 1800N 06508W 5325 05392 0287 -034 -081 136006 007 /// /// 03
060730 1801N 06510W 5225 05542 0295 -044 -085 145008 009 /// /// 03
060800 1802N 06512W 5149 05657 0301 -050 -105 156007 007 /// /// 03
060830 1803N 06513W 5063 05790 0309 -059 -120 154006 007 /// /// 03
060900 1804N 06515W 4973 05929 0317 -067 -148 166006 006 /// /// 03
060930 1805N 06517W 4886 06068 0325 -075 -181 175005 005 /// /// 03
061000 1806N 06519W 4799 06206 0333 -085 -189 194005 006 /// /// 03
061030 1807N 06521W 4718 06340 0341 -094 -190 210006 006 /// /// 03
061100 1808N 06522W 4641 06468 0349 -103 -199 231008 010 /// /// 03
061130 1809N 06524W 4558 06607 0357 -114 -212 258009 010 /// /// 03
061200 1810N 06526W 4491 06720 0365 -126 -217 249010 010 /// /// 03
061230 1811N 06528W 4423 06838 0372 -135 -229 255009 009 /// /// 03
061300 1812N 06529W 4357 06954 0378 -145 -209 249008 008 /// /// 03

[CronkPSU]

models page has more bad news...seems everyone of them is hitting some major area of the eastern seaboard

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Latest sterring chart 0300UTC still has a large gap to shoot through.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=



If she was a lot sallower.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

So I was told a few hours ago that this was a static picture and it wasn't showing how the trough was going to dig down and push the high to the east back. Well a few hours later it still shows a high closing off an eastward turn and looks to be steering it to SC/NC border area. In fact it looks like the high has pushed a little to the west from a few hours ago. How do I need to read this to make sense of it correctly the way the people in the know do?

[CronkPSU]

i think, unfortunately, that you are reading it correctly...wish wxman57 or aric were here to help but I am reading it the same way you are...and the storm continues to move further and further west and missing its NHC target points tonight...the turn is still suppose to happen before lunch so maybe the front is just a little slow coming through still

[Ground_Zero_92]

I see it the same way. Interesting development. Any pro mets care to clarify?

[Texashawk]

In Houston, we used to get the sage wisdom of Dr. Neil Frank, the former NHC director. I remember him talking about a certain storm a while back (Gilbert?) that was basically so large and powerful that it did what it wanted - he described it as a boulder in a river, where normal hurricanes are small rocks that are carried by the river. But with that storm, it was effectively a boulder that essentially ignored the river and cut its own path. Is Irene going to be a boulder, and would modern models account for that?

[fci]

Ok I am not a board mod, but this bickering needs to stop. There is a potential catastrophic hurricane headed to various places and snow has nothing to do with hurricanes. Please get back on topic so those who are trying to find out useful and needed information can find it. Thanks!!

Well, actually this is very useful information. Let me explain why. I personally have lived in Florida for 20 years and in the New York/ New Jersey area for 30 years. people up north only have snow storms to compare to hurricanes because we don't get hurricanes up here. The big difference between a nor'easter and a hurricane is time of year.

This is not for NYC itself, but rather for the millions of people who just live in the burbs in the northeast.
During the winter, the ground is frozen and there are no leaves on the trees. All outdoor stuff is tucked away safely for the winter. The wind blows during a snow storm 50, 60 or 70 mph and some trees fall, but all in all, things stay standing.

In the summer, it is totally different. The ground is already saturated, The trees are in full bloom and they act like giant sails. People have projectiles all over their yards. There is a huge demand on the power grids running air conditioning. Almost everyone has overhead power lines rather than underground up here.

In my opinion, The bottom line is, if the northeast gets a direct hit from Irene it will be much worse than any nor'easter they have seen. Power outages will be a much longer duration, roads will be impassible due to flooding and trees down and water supplies could be contaminated. People up here, must take this storm seriously because this is not a snowstorm, it is a hurricane.

Thank you for a logical explanation of the effects, making more sense since you have lived in both the Noreaster zone and the Hurricane zone.
Short on rhetoric and long on logic.
Thanks!

[CronkPSU]

the morning news shows are going to be in a frenzy when they see the new NHC map at 5AM...if the storm strengthens, how many millions of people are going to be asked/told to evacuate...NC to Central Jersey???

[bamajammer4eva]

I see it the same way. Interesting development. Any pro mets care to clarify?

Same here below is a link to the animation which some frames are missing so you have to click on the little green boxes above to edit the bad ones out so it looks smooth. Bermuda High expands westward in the last frame,

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm4/wg8dlm4java.html

[Ground_Zero_92]

I see it the same way. Interesting development. Any pro mets care to clarify?

Same here below is a link to the animation which some frames are missing so you have to click on the little green boxes above to edit the bad ones out so it looks smooth. Bermuda High expands westward in the last frame,

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm4/wg8dlm4java.html

Sure does look like the High is expanding west.

[CronkPSU]

wow...look at her start to wrap all that major convection around again...they said the eye was going to be massive, they may be right!


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal