ATL: IRENE - Models

[Canelaw99]

What's the new CMC saying? Last one trended a little further west in the short term vs. the other models. Brought Irene over Grand Bahama whereas the other models were over the Abacos.

That's a pretty major short term shift IMO....would bring it much closer to FL coast.

[clfenwi]

00Z GFS 24h. Slightly closer to Florida compared 18Z run.

[cpdaman]

yup 0z gfs is def about 20 miles WSW closer to florida at 24 hours

[clfenwi]

00Z GFS 48h slightly southwest of 18Z

[kamqercam]

All these a little closer west models each time are starting to worry me.

[clfenwi]

00Z 72h Once again, slightly to the west of the 18Z run. Perhaps slightly slower as well.

[clfenwi]

00Z 84h. Looks awfully like an this an Eastern Shore landfall.

[clfenwi]

00Z GFS 96h Definitely slower as you get further into the run;because of that larger along-track difference than cross-track.

[BigA]

That's a lot to the west of the 18Z run. Over NYC instead of eastern Long Island.

00Z NOGAPS also a good deal farther west, making landfall in North Carolina near Cape Lookout, and tracking right along Mid Atlantic coast.

Edited: Cape Lookout, not Cape Fear...got my NC Capes mixed up.

[PTPatrick]

thats basically a "day after tomorrow" scenario for Manhattan. Wind or not, the water would be insane.

Which begs the question...how the heck do they evac NYC...nobody has cars.

I guess I can answer my own question. THEY DONT. I suppose you shelter in place as the magnified wind funnels between buildings making your windows into projectiles. Oh and thats if you are not in the lower 3rd of manahattan and much Brooklyn, queens and the Bronx that would be under water. NYC...they last place I ever want to be in a major hurricane, after New Orleans.

[clfenwi]

Depiction of the 00Z GFS on Wundermap indicates an Outer Banks landfall from the southwest at 75h and final landfall just north of Atlantic City at 90h, fwiw.

[ROCK]

this is a run JB has been talking about for years.....looks like its finally will come to fruition IMO..... Unfortunatly no one in NYC, unless they are a transplant is ready for something like this. Those old skyscrapers are not ready for this. Flooding alone will be a disaster and the likelyhood on no power to all those people living in DT...ugh worst case scenario...I feel sick just thinking about it...

[ROCK]

thats basically a "day after tomorrow" scenario for Manhattan. Wind or not, the water would be insane.

I agree PT.....it will be the mother of all disasters if that run comes to pass....

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Those poor people in NYC, this could be terrible.

[clfenwi]

00Z NOGAPS 72h

[PTPatrick]

I suppose they could open a shelter here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington ... _Manhattan

[SunnyThoughts]

I feel sick about it too, mainly because I don't think people are going to take it seriously until its knocking on their doorstep and by then, it will be too late. All that rain racking up, and even if the winds are 60 to 80 mph (hopefully not stronger) power will be out EVERYWHERE after hours upon hours of that kind of wind.

[clfenwi]

00Z NOGAPS 96h Like BigA said, runs the coast from North Carolina until it hits CT.

[seussianagenda]

Am i reading the gfl right as 2.5 inches of rain over virginia beach an HOUR!!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

Okay, what's going on here??? I thought the models would be consolidating....It's a bit nervewracking to see the GFS once again trending further West. Hmmm, will the track be adjusted on the next advisory?? This is indeed scary!!