ATL: IRENE - Models

[shaggy]

Noticed a ULL in the 300mb analysis on the spc meso page that is sitting in the eastern GOM .My question is how or if this feature will the hurricane. Could it shove it north or tug it west or impart some shear on it. Could change the early movements of the storm?

[Jevo]

18Z GFS slightly west compared to earlier runs:
http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/2843/t ... 18east.gif

Wow if thats not a trend then I dont know what is.. slightly left the past 3/4 runs.. Looking forward to the 0z Euro/GFS

[M_0331]

Andido,
I lived in Leland, NC when GLORIA came close, scary storm after DIANA the year before. BE SAFE -- BEEN THERE DONE THAT

[CronkPSU]

Anything from the gfdl, hwrf,ukmet etc?

[Bizzles]

Anything from the gfdl, hwrf,ukmet etc?

Hope not lol, GFDL has been poor all year...which I hope is consistent b/c it has Irene going right smack up the center of NJ

[Brent]

HWRF...

[clfenwi]

18Z HWRF wind swath and stats

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 24

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -74.20 LAT: 22.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -75.10 LAT: 23.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 24.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -76.30 LAT: 25.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 116.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -76.70 LAT: 26.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 114.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -77.10 LAT: 27.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 112.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 28.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -77.50 LAT: 29.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -77.50 LAT: 30.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -77.30 LAT: 31.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.10 LAT: 32.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -76.80 LAT: 33.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 112.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -76.40 LAT: 34.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -75.70 LAT: 35.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -75.10 LAT: 36.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -74.30 LAT: 38.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -73.40 LAT: 40.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -72.40 LAT: 43.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -71.40 LAT: 45.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 957.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -69.90 LAT: 48.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -68.90 LAT: 50.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -66.70 LAT: 52.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[seahawkjd]

What was the HWRF like before it got that far north? Still a west trend?

[clfenwi]

18Z GFDL wind swath and stats

HOUR: .0 LONG: -74.31 LAT: 22.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 946.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.15
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -75.09 LAT: 23.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.72 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):119.96
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -75.85 LAT: 23.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):114.34
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -76.29 LAT: 24.96 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.11 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):123.29
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -76.75 LAT: 26.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.20 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):117.67
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -77.01 LAT: 27.17 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.03 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):114.91
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.25 LAT: 28.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):117.36
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -77.28 LAT: 29.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.84
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -77.14 LAT: 29.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.25
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.77 LAT: 30.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.40 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):105.01
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.41 LAT: 31.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.28 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):108.13
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -76.12 LAT: 32.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 97.48
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -75.83 LAT: 33.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.43
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -75.43 LAT: 34.14 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.57
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -75.15 LAT: 35.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):100.74
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -74.59 LAT: 36.68 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):102.66
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -74.39 LAT: 38.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):100.29
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -73.93 LAT: 39.96 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.17 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.40
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -73.74 LAT: 41.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.07 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.03
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -73.58 LAT: 43.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 943.29 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.92
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -73.36 LAT: 45.82 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.31
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -72.36 LAT: 47.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.39

[BensonTCwatcher]

Oof, not liking this trend. Bahamas are taking it in the shorts, that's enough landfall. I don't want to stay up for the next GFS runs etc. but this is getting tough to judge. the synoptics are not as clear cut as before.

[clfenwi]

What was the HWRF like before it got that far north? Still a west trend?

18Z has a lot more mid-Atlantic land interaction. BTW, there's a loop available showing the entire history of the HWRF's forecast, going back to the invest stage. GFDL also available.

[seahawkjd]

Oof, not liking this trend. Bahamas are taking it in the shorts, that's enough landfall. I don't want to stay up for the next GFS runs etc. but this is getting tough to judge. the synoptics are not as clear cut as before.

Can you expand on what you just said?

[rainstorm]

looks like they both came west

[SeminoleWind]

HWRF probably has the right idea on track but intensity i think its nuts.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Oof, not liking this trend. Bahamas are taking it in the shorts, that's enough landfall. I don't want to stay up for the next GFS runs etc. but this is getting tough to judge. the synoptics are not as clear cut as before.

Can you expand on what you just said?

It's coming down small variations in the ridge/weakness thicknesses, tilt of the SW tough over great lakes, and storm depth. Last 2 days the trend in model guidance kept moving kept moving east much more predictably. The slowdown of the storm looks like it will be much more dependent on a different setup, not greaty different, but enough. If the windfield keeps expanding and the storm is strong after 48 hours. This could be a real mess.

[seahawkjd]

Oof, not liking this trend. Bahamas are taking it in the shorts, that's enough landfall. I don't want to stay up for the next GFS runs etc. but this is getting tough to judge. the synoptics are not as clear cut as before.

Can you expand on what you just said?

It's coming down small variations in the ridge/weakness thicknesses, tilt of the SW tough over great lakes, and storm depth. Last 2 days the trend in model guidance kept moving kept moving east much more predictably. The slowdown of the storm looks like it will be much more dependent on a different setup, not greaty different, but enough. If the windfield keeps expanding and the storm is strong after 48 hours. This could be a real mess.

Thank you for the extra information.

[Stephanie]

***REMINDER***

Again - this thread is to discuss the models ONLY, not to make funny jokes, add nonsense links, etc.

Thank you.

[Janie2006]

We've got to be careful about engaging in too much hyperbole here. There is plenty of precedent for landfalling hurricanes or tropical storms in New York and New England. Climatologically speaking, it would be quite rare for Irene to make a projected landfall in New England as a major hurricane, and, as someone previously stated, New Orleans was a rather unique case.

The Northeast would have its own set of worries with hurricanes, and they really aren't comparable to those of a city that basically sits in a giant bowl below sea level. Messy? Stressful? Nerve-wracking? Absolutely......but it's happened before and we've all re-built and re-learned some valuable lessons.

[Stephanie]

We've got to be careful about engaging in too much hyperbole here. There is plenty of precedent for landfalling hurricanes or tropical storms in New York and New England. Climatologically speaking, it would be quite rare for Irene to make a projected landfall in New England as a major hurricane, and, as someone previously stated, New Orleans was a rather unique case.

The Northeast would have its own set of worries with hurricanes, and they really aren't comparable to those of a city that basically sits in a giant bowl below sea level. Messy? Stressful? Nerve-wracking? Absolutely......but it's happened before and we've all re-built and re-learned some valuable lessons.

Beautifully said. Thank you.

[cat]

EURO run at 105 hours (from wundergound).
Hell of a storm surge into the East and Hudson Rivers if this pans out.


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