ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[drezee]

ladies and gentlemen, Irene has crossed 75W. It will have to move E of N on average from here to not hit New England!

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 242317
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 14 20110824
230800 2158N 07308W 6878 03244 //// +051 //// 181049 049 040 012 01
230830 2158N 07310W 6959 03138 //// +056 //// 184048 049 039 013 01
230900 2159N 07312W 6958 03137 //// +059 //// 188050 051 048 016 01
230930 2200N 07314W 6977 03115 0038 +079 //// 192048 048 046 007 01
231000 2201N 07316W 6964 03130 0037 +080 //// 194051 052 042 003 01
231030 2202N 07317W 6965 03127 0037 +078 //// 196052 052 042 004 01
231100 2202N 07319W 6967 03124 0043 +072 //// 195054 054 043 008 01
231130 2203N 07321W 6966 03124 //// +064 //// 191055 056 044 012 01
231200 2204N 07323W 6969 03119 //// +069 //// 194057 058 044 006 01
231230 2205N 07324W 6966 03118 //// +067 //// 195060 061 045 005 01
231300 2207N 07326W 6966 03120 0027 +076 //// 196059 060 046 005 01
231330 2208N 07327W 6967 03116 0034 +079 +005 199059 059 048 004 00
231400 2209N 07329W 6966 03116 //// +071 //// 198058 059 048 008 01
231430 2211N 07330W 6963 03116 //// +061 //// 195061 062 048 013 01
231500 2212N 07332W 6965 03112 //// +057 //// 194066 070 048 021 05
231530 2214N 07333W 6966 03113 //// +068 //// 184060 065 051 039 01
231600 2215N 07335W 6976 03098 //// +056 //// 203062 065 054 021 01
231630 2216N 07336W 6961 03116 //// +081 //// 209059 061 048 007 01
231700 2218N 07338W 6974 03099 //// +089 //// 208057 058 046 004 01
231730 2219N 07339W 6963 03110 //// +087 //// 209055 057 046 003 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[CronkPSU]

Good=powerful...so bad for anyone in its path

Sorry but the more powerful the storm the prettier they look to me...even if i know what can happen from them

[cycloneye]

Plane decending.Let's see what lowest pressure reading it gets.

[seahawkjd]

Also breaking news, Jim Cantore is in Providence, RI.

[littlevince]

Yea, something is going on with Irene. The hurricane don't look very good right now....perhaps the EWRC or some dry air mixing into the circulation. If it is an EWRC I wonder how large the eye will become? Wilma went from a 2-3 mile eye to 40 miles if I remember correctly.....MGC

Yes, since the last RECON pass through the center some strong and convective bursts seem to have broken the CDO balance/symmetry, eyewall probably still open.

[CronkPSU]

Did seahawk and dreezee plan that? How freaky was that!!

[summersquall]

Here's what NWS Melbourne has to say about Irene's effects locally. The coastal counties have a coastal flood watch in effect.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1253 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO PASS 200 TO 250
MILES OFFSHORE FROM THE EAST FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE. THIS COULD PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND HIGH SURF IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST.

[Aja]

What if any condition currently in play could or would allow this system to move enough west to effect Ga or SC?

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 242313
97779 23110 40221 73319 30500 19054 06//9 /3085
RMK AF302 1709A IRENE OB 06
SWS = 42 KTS
SE INBOUND
;

[Aja]

[quote="Only way Irene track would shift back west is if the first trough split & she pumped up ridging between her & the 2nd trough."][/quote]
What if any condition currently in play could or would allow this system to move enough west to effect Ga or SC?
HUGO repeat fears are high in SC. I want a realistic reason why there should be any fear of this happening again or a reason to calm those fears with logical balanced reason why it is no threat or odds are against any land fall in Ga or SC.

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 242327
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 15 20110824
231800 2220N 07341W 6965 03104 //// +085 //// 207057 058 047 004 01
231830 2222N 07342W 6967 03104 //// +088 //// 206057 058 047 004 05
231900 2222N 07344W 6967 03099 //// +080 //// 207055 056 047 006 01
231930 2223N 07345W 6966 03100 //// +084 //// 207056 056 047 006 05
232000 2224N 07347W 6962 03105 //// +087 //// 207057 058 046 006 05
232030 2224N 07348W 6967 03095 9986 +091 +083 209059 059 047 006 00
232100 2223N 07350W 6967 03093 9984 +093 +081 210059 060 046 006 00
232130 2223N 07351W 6968 03106 9994 +086 //// 215061 061 044 005 05
232200 2224N 07353W 6971 03083 9981 +089 +087 214061 061 045 005 00
232230 2226N 07354W 6966 03090 9976 +089 +085 213062 063 053 000 03
232300 2227N 07356W 6970 03065 9969 +086 //// 214062 063 134 007 05
232330 2228N 07357W 6968 03076 9976 +081 //// 213061 062 043 000 05
232400 2229N 07358W 6964 03082 9977 +082 //// 213060 061 041 004 01
232430 2231N 07400W 6973 03066 9976 +075 //// 215064 065 041 006 01
232500 2232N 07401W 6963 03076 9966 +084 //// 212064 065 042 005 01
232530 2233N 07403W 6964 03074 9967 +082 +080 211064 064 044 004 00
232600 2235N 07404W 6964 03071 //// +073 //// 212065 066 045 011 01
232630 2236N 07406W 6978 03052 9950 +088 //// 213064 065 044 008 01
232700 2237N 07407W 6967 03058 9951 +086 //// 214066 066 041 004 01
232730 2238N 07408W 6966 03058 9943 +087 //// 213068 068 044 002 01
$$

[Bizzles]

Good=powerful...so bad for anyone in its path

Sorry but the more powerful the storm the prettier they look to me...even if i know what can happen from them

agreed. Just clarifying, I'm in central Jersey so looks like I'll get one of those sweet avatars with a cane and an arrow pointing to where I live

[kamqercam]

Evacuations ferry from Ocracoke Island arrives in Hatteras, N.C
http://prntscr.com/2rp6s

[CronkPSU]

Good=powerful...so bad for anyone in its path

Sorry but the more powerful the storm the prettier they look to me...even if i know what can happen from them

agreed. Just clarifying, I'm in central Jersey so looks like I'll get one of those sweet avatars with a cane and an arrow pointing to where I live

Hahahahahahaha! Way to think positively about it! Us in florida had enough for a decade from 2004

[Dave]

[wsquared77]

"A quick update on Hurricane Irene. The National Hurricane Center's forecast track now takes Irene east of Cape Hatteras. This eastward shift is keying off the computer models that want to take a sprawling high pressure system in the western US and move it eastward...which would push the storm to the east. Yesterday those same models were keying on an approaching cold front from the north that would push the storm east.....this is a significant shift in thinking of "what" will push it east. Interestingly, the models tracks are all clustered up together offshore, so the NHC has a "high confidence" that the track will stay offshore....however the average track guidance error 3 days out from a landfalling hurricane is about 200 miles and that 200 miles could have a significant impact on us. I still am concerned that the storm will get so big that it becomes its own driver...not depending on any other weather systems to push it anywhere. Here is the key....75 degrees west!!!!
That is the longitude of Cape Hatteras and if the storm is still going northwest when it passes 75 west before it turns north....then the track will have to be adjusted back to the west. One way or the other, this is going to be a big hurricane and whether it is a direct hit or not on the mainland many of us will feel its impact and even on its present track the impacts on eastern Carteret county and the other counties around the sounds and the Outer Banks will be significant." -- Skip Waters, WCTI Channel 12 Chief Meteorologist

Interesting discussion from a local met that's been around a long time. Read it on wcti12.com and thought the 75 West NW thing might be worth discussing.

I read this too and would really like to hear others' thoughts. Also, would love to hear from any other New Bern area folks who have been here a while. We've been here 3.5 years but just recently moved to downtown (just off E Front Street) and all I've been hearing from people all day is "Oh no, watch out for the flooding!"

[Bizzles]

waiting to see how big she gets once she's clear of the islands.

[CronkPSU]

My take is that the guy is dead on...it is still definitely moving with at least some west component it is somehow going to have to track east in order to miss the US, it just seems very unlikely there will be enough east component to have it miss