ATL: TEN - Remnants - Discussion
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GFS ends up having a close call with the Azores in about 7-8 days time, maybe a little too far east though IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Still moving due west guys..... wouldn't bet on a recurve just yet
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Looks like the GFS wants it to go fishin.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Continues to become better organized.I say 70% at 8 PM.
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- TwisterFanatic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
bella_may wrote:Still moving due west guys..... wouldn't bet on a recurve just yet
It's still waaaay out there, and it's going to develop pretty quickly. This is re-curve all the way. The models point that way also.
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looks like it went wsw when you look at sat. loop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Yet it's currently moving west at 10-15, so something to watch I guess. I mean, come on, it's not going to hit the next forecast point of *any* of those models.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
70%
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 8 PM TWO=70%
Yes, 90L looks rather impressive tonight. If the convection sustains itself through the night, I would think that we will likely see this designated a TD or possibly even a TS during the day tomorrow. Also, it may be possible for this system to get closer to the Leeward Islands by the end of this upcoming weekend or by Monday. One thing I certainly will not do is speculate beyond five days with this system or any others from here on out, period. Irene has reminded me not to take the model runs seriously until the five-day window of a possible landfall anywhere.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
The latest. Please,dont qoute the pic.
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- SeminoleWind
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Oh yah this should be Jose in 2-3 days i think
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- Annie Oakley
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
[quote="cycloneye"]The latest. Please,dont qoute the pic.
Test test....testing for quote without the pic........lol.
Glad you all brought that to our attention. Bet I have done it in the past. Now I know!
Test test....testing for quote without the pic........lol.
Glad you all brought that to our attention. Bet I have done it in the past. Now I know!
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
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- northjaxpro
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NHC in their TWD at 8 p.m. EDT position estimate for the 1007 mb Low pressure (90L).
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 13N27W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT.
The moisture envelope on WV imagery for 90L looks very good as well to help this system insulate from dry air out in the far Eastern ATL and upper levels look conducive for stengthening in the short term. If convection can maintain consistently over the next 12-24 hours, this will easily be the next designated name storm during this upcoming time period.
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 13N27W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT.
The moisture envelope on WV imagery for 90L looks very good as well to help this system insulate from dry air out in the far Eastern ATL and upper levels look conducive for stengthening in the short term. If convection can maintain consistently over the next 12-24 hours, this will easily be the next designated name storm during this upcoming time period.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
SSD dvorak.
24/2345 UTC 12.0N 28.6W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic
24/2345 UTC 12.0N 28.6W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
00z Best Track
Has moved WSW in the past 6 hours.
AL, 90, 2011082500, , BEST, 0, 118N, 284W, 25, 1008, LO
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
Has moved WSW in the past 6 hours.
AL, 90, 2011082500, , BEST, 0, 118N, 284W, 25, 1008, LO
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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- northjaxpro
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Luis, you are right. satellite imagery loops indeed confirm the W/SW jog in motion. 90L certainly appears south of 13N, which is where NHC positioned it in their 8 p.m. TWD.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Annie Oakley wrote:cycloneye wrote:The latest. Please,dont qoute the pic.
Test test....testing for quote without the pic........lol.
Glad you all brought that to our attention. Bet I have done it in the past. Now I know!
I just looked using the quote button, but I couldn't tell what to click to keep from attaching image files etc. HELP!
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
00z Tropical Models.
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 250053
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0053 UTC THU AUG 25 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110825 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110825 0000 110825 1200 110826 0000 110826 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 28.6W 13.2N 29.3W 14.8N 30.1W 16.5N 31.3W
BAMD 11.9N 28.6W 12.2N 30.4W 12.8N 32.1W 13.5N 33.5W
BAMM 11.9N 28.6W 12.5N 30.3W 13.3N 31.8W 14.2N 33.2W
LBAR 11.9N 28.6W 12.3N 30.5W 13.2N 32.4W 14.3N 34.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 50KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110827 0000 110828 0000 110829 0000 110830 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 32.4W 20.3N 35.6W 20.9N 38.8W 20.5N 40.7W
BAMD 14.4N 34.5W 17.3N 35.0W 20.7N 33.2W 25.6N 33.1W
BAMM 15.2N 34.6W 17.2N 36.8W 18.4N 37.7W 19.3N 38.4W
LBAR 15.7N 35.2W 19.7N 35.8W 24.5N 34.3W 30.2N 29.1W
SHIP 59KTS 72KTS 68KTS 62KTS
DSHP 59KTS 72KTS 68KTS 62KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 28.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 26.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 25.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
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