ATL: IRENE - Models

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#4881 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 4:56 pm

18z GFS +48

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#4882 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 24, 2011 4:59 pm

The eastward trend seems to have stopped...If that's the case, look out New York!

We'll see what the GFS does on this run....
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#4883 Postby InstantWeatherMaps » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:03 pm

18Z GFS 60:
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Last edited by InstantWeatherMaps on Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4884 Postby shaggy » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:03 pm

Is it me or does the trough look flatter at 54hrs?
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#4885 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:05 pm

18Z gfs +60

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#4886 Postby InstantWeatherMaps » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:06 pm

Jevo wrote:18Z gfs +60

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Already posted it ;)
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#4887 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:07 pm

18Z GFS +72

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#4888 Postby InstantWeatherMaps » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:07 pm

Barely misses Carolinas at hour 75... closer than last few runs though
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#4889 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:08 pm

18z GFS +84

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#4890 Postby InstantWeatherMaps » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:12 pm

18Z GFS 96 at 959 mb:
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Last edited by InstantWeatherMaps on Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:16 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4891 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:13 pm

thats about a 35 mile shift west, brings a much bigger disaster than the 12z would
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#4892 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:15 pm

GFS 18z +108

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4893 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:15 pm

Looks like the models are honing on Major Outer Banks/NE Hit. The overall trend today has been west.
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#4894 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:21 pm

So now the showdown starts... Euro has a hit in DELMARVA/NJ/NY. GFS is a little more East showing LI/NE. Although it looks like the GFS picked up on the trough retrograding a little bit
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#4895 Postby rainstorm » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:25 pm

Wxrisk.com
‎18Z GFS HAS COME BACK WEST AGAIN.... EYE OF IREEN NOW GOES OVER HATTERAS AT 78 HRS.... wow 2nd run in row this is west
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Re:

#4896 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:30 pm

rainstorm wrote:Wxrisk.com
‎18Z GFS HAS COME BACK WEST AGAIN.... EYE OF IREEN NOW GOES OVER HATTERAS AT 78 HRS.... wow 2nd run in row this is west



Well, it definately appears that the eastward trend has ended....
This is not good news.
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#4897 Postby supercane » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:39 pm

18Z GFS slightly west compared to earlier runs:
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#4898 Postby maxintensity » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:39 pm

Time Square could be ground zero. This thing is taking aim at the crossroads of the world. This isn't the US, it's NEW YORK. Depending on how strong it gets in the next 48 hours you could see a cat 2 or even a cat 3 hitting Times Square. You would need this to get to around 145-155mph winds on its approach to NC. Then it can drop 20-30 mph over the next day and still be extremely dangerous. Plus we all know that surge builds up over time and it looks like this will be a monster and just bury itself somewhere near times square.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4899 Postby bzukajo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:45 pm

Oh my, that latest run has the eye passing directly over my town. Just came back with 30 gallons of water and 10 bags of ice. My memory of being in Houston for Ike is still very fresh. I am REALLY glad we bought that generator!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4900 Postby Andido » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:50 pm

I've lived in NYC my whole life and have been waiting for a hurricane since Gloria in 1985. This is what I've been waiting for ever since! However, I am a bit nervous about a huge hurricane and we just had an earthquake! It's pretty crazy. I once pursued meteorology as a career and am now a professional freelance writer. Lots has changed since 1985 and the model runs, being that they have become more accurate over the years, are quite scary. I just hope everyone is ready once Irene hits. She's one of the biggest hurricanes I've ever seen.

Andido
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