ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KWBC 242053
NOAA2 1609A IRENE HDOB 04 20110824
204400 2648N 08051W 5680 04868 0110 -008 -073 027009 010 /// /// 03
204430 2648N 08049W 5682 04867 0112 -010 -060 020010 011 /// /// 03
204500 2647N 08046W 5680 04867 0110 -010 -060 018008 009 /// /// 03
204530 2647N 08043W 5681 04866 0111 -010 -070 027007 008 /// /// 03
204600 2647N 08041W 5678 04868 0110 -010 -058 038007 008 /// /// 03
204630 2647N 08038W 5681 04864 0110 -011 -046 052008 008 /// /// 03
204700 2646N 08035W 5681 04862 0099 -006 -056 063008 009 /// /// 03
204730 2646N 08033W 5682 04864 0099 -006 -061 059007 007 /// /// 03
204800 2645N 08030W 5682 04860 0092 -003 -066 066007 008 /// /// 03
204830 2645N 08028W 5683 04857 0085 +000 -070 061008 008 /// /// 03
204900 2644N 08025W 5682 04857 0087 -002 -054 052008 009 /// /// 03
204930 2644N 08022W 5684 04856 0086 -001 -054 042008 008 /// /// 03
205000 2643N 08020W 5683 04856 0085 -002 -051 035008 009 /// /// 03
205030 2643N 08017W 5684 04855 0086 -002 -055 034008 009 /// /// 03
205100 2642N 08015W 5684 04853 0079 +001 -074 032007 007 /// /// 03
205130 2642N 08012W 5684 04854 0086 -001 -083 042008 008 /// /// 03
205200 2642N 08009W 5684 04853 0081 +001 -089 038007 007 /// /// 03
205230 2641N 08007W 5686 04850 0079 +002 -081 042007 008 /// /// 03
205300 2641N 08004W 5684 04854 0081 +002 -098 039008 008 /// /// 03
205330 2640N 08002W 5685 04851 0083 +001 -104 035008 008 /// /// 03

[micktooth]

I really need to change my screen name to "nervousNelly"...

I follow TWC models, which have us (Charleston, SC) out of the cone. I didn't live here when Hugo hit, but I have repeated heard yesterday & today from co-workers who did that Hugo was heading somewhere else, then it turned and slammed into Charleston. This is why everyone was so unprepared. I've stopped my preparations to head to Charlotte based on us being out of the cone, but I realize that if Irene decided to stop by for a visit, we'd be in a world of hurt because again, we were unprepared. She's still to the South of us and could technically still hit us, although it's not likely. I have 2 small children and have visions of people on their roofs post-Katrina in my head. Am I being a nervous Nelly and should I stay put or should I be Charlotte bound? Any insight since y'all know a LOT more about how hurricanes behave would be MUCH appreciated!

I think you will be ok in Charleston. Hugo was a long time ago, modeling and forecasting have become better. Having lived in New Orleans during Katrina, I can tell you that unless all of Charleston is a bowl below sea level, you won't see a repeat, NOLA is a unique situation. Having said that, there are no guarantees. Do what you feel is best for you and your family. It's always easy to evacuate and come back to an undamaged home (I also did that in NOLA for Ivan and Georges) than to stay and live through hell.

Theabovepost is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Canelaw99]

Someone care to interpret the NOAA recon findings map in the recon thread?

[drezee]

The NHC almost sounds like they don't want the Euro to get mad.

THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.

[Aric Dunn]

Careful when looking at visible for direction of storm movement. With SW'ly shear and convection blowups, the "eye" gets covered over and you see various peeks at it giving the illusion of a north movement.

that and the sun is setting.. and shadows and the eye is having problems since its tilted. from earlier recon the center has been under the w or sw "visible" eyewall

[CronkPSU]

[CronkPSU]

discussion says they have shifted the track west on days 4 and 5

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the track has shifted west a touch.. now calling for a direct hit on Abaco

[fci]

I really need to change my screen name to "nervousNelly"...

I follow TWC models, which have us (Charleston, SC) out of the cone. I didn't live here when Hugo hit, but I have repeated heard yesterday & today from co-workers who did that Hugo was heading somewhere else, then it turned and slammed into Charleston. This is why everyone was so unprepared. I've stopped my preparations to head to Charlotte based on us being out of the cone, but I realize that if Irene decided to stop by for a visit, we'd be in a world of hurt because again, we were unprepared. She's still to the South of us and could technically still hit us, although it's not likely. I have 2 small children and have visions of people on their roofs post-Katrina in my head. Am I being a nervous Nelly and should I stay put or should I be Charlotte bound? Any insight since y'all know a LOT more about how hurricanes behave would be MUCH appreciated!

Obviously,you need to do whatever makes you more comfortable and feel the safest.
I'm just going to tell you that according to the lastest track from the NHC, Irene is to pass 205 miles from Charleston.
There is no reason to EXPECT a lot of effect from the storm, but again; you should do what makes you feel the best for you and your family.

[ROCK]

The NHC almost sounds like they don't want the Euro to get mad.

THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.

sure does....when in doubt look to the EURO....of course the 12Z run would be very bad for a whole lot of people...

[Elsiecoro]

I am sure the answer is here somewhere, but I have been following this thread since she was invest, and since I am in S FL, I have watched her predicted path swing west and east for awhile now (weeks it seems )

My question for one of the more knowledgable members is, at what point in time is a hurricane path for certain?

Is it when it is actually here...... ?!

Been watching, we were way outta the cone for even winds, now I look at 5pm, path looks more westerly to me......

Disclaimer
I am an accountant, not a weather man. Any opinions I post are wild guesses.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KWBC 242103
NOAA2 1609A IRENE HDOB 05 20110824
205400 2640N 07959W 5684 04851 0083 +001 -102 040008 009 /// /// 03
205430 2639N 07956W 5685 04849 0083 +000 -102 038009 009 024 000 00
205500 2639N 07954W 5685 04849 0087 -002 -100 041009 010 023 000 00
205530 2638N 07951W 5686 04849 0085 -001 -100 046010 010 023 000 00
205600 2638N 07948W 5686 04848 0080 +002 -104 043010 010 024 000 03
205630 2638N 07946W 5687 04848 0075 +005 -108 043009 010 024 000 00
205700 2638N 07943W 5687 04851 0079 +005 -112 035009 010 025 001 00
205730 2638N 07941W 5687 04849 0076 +005 -116 039009 010 027 000 00
205800 2638N 07938W 5686 04850 0073 +006 -117 043009 010 027 000 00
205830 2638N 07935W 5687 04848 0073 +007 -120 054010 011 026 000 00
205900 2638N 07933W 5688 04850 0073 +008 -124 054011 012 027 000 00
205930 2638N 07930W 5688 04850 0073 +009 -141 061011 011 026 000 00
210000 2638N 07928W 5688 04850 0069 +011 -141 068012 012 026 000 00
210030 2637N 07925W 5688 04849 0064 +013 -156 071012 013 025 000 00
210100 2637N 07922W 5689 04847 0061 +015 -180 075013 014 026 000 00
210130 2637N 07920W 5688 04849 0059 +017 -167 069013 013 027 000 00
210200 2637N 07917W 5689 04848 0056 +018 -168 074015 016 026 000 00
210230 2636N 07915W 5689 04850 0057 +019 -182 081016 017 025 000 00
210300 2636N 07912W 5689 04855 0065 +018 -201 083016 017 025 000 00
210330 2636N 07910W 5691 04850 0065 +017 -195 083014 014 025 000 03

[hiflyer]

Before anyone asks.....air travel dc philly nyc bos gonna be tough starting sat evening. Airlines will be careful not to be expsed to long wait times on runways or to have expensive silver tubes on the ground trapped.

[jlauderdal]

The NHC almost sounds like they don't want the Euro to get mad.

THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.

mike bloomberg is the one that is going to be mad about all this....this is going to be a real mind bender the next few days

[cycloneye]

Someone care to interpret the NOAA recon findings map in the recon thread?

You meant this data from the gulfstream jet in the upper enviroment? Maybe someone can explain it as I dont know these measurements.

[SouthernBreeze]

I really need to change my screen name to "nervousNelly"...

I follow TWC models, which have us (Charleston, SC) out of the cone. I didn't live here when Hugo hit, but I have repeated heard yesterday & today from co-workers who did that Hugo was heading somewhere else, then it turned and slammed into Charleston. This is why everyone was so unprepared. I've stopped my preparations to head to Charlotte based on us being out of the cone, but I realize that if Irene decided to stop by for a visit, we'd be in a world of hurt because again, we were unprepared. She's still to the South of us and could technically still hit us, although it's not likely. I have 2 small children and have visions of people on their roofs post-Katrina in my head. Am I being a nervous Nelly and should I stay put or should I be Charlotte bound? Any insight since y'all know a LOT more about how hurricanes behave would be MUCH appreciated!

Oh I remember THAT.... I'm in Myrtle Bch area & was in a tiny 2 BR house surrounded by huge oak trees. Hugo was coming right at us - I was a nervous wreck - didn't think the trees could take much more. Then they said on the news it suddenly turned to Charleston..... what a relief for me, but a nightmare for poor Charleston!

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KWBC 242113
NOAA2 1609A IRENE HDOB 06 20110824
210400 2636N 07907W 5691 04848 0067 +015 -214 079014 014 /// /// 03
210430 2636N 07905W 5691 04850 0075 +011 -147 076013 014 /// /// 03
210500 2635N 07902W 5690 04850 0072 +014 -230 075015 015 /// /// 03
210530 2635N 07900W 5692 04850 0070 +015 -212 073015 016 /// /// 03
210600 2635N 07857W 5692 04849 0069 +014 -142 072015 015 /// /// 03
210630 2635N 07855W 5692 04849 0074 +011 -100 075014 014 /// /// 03
210700 2634N 07852W 5692 04851 0079 +009 -106 069012 012 /// /// 03
210730 2634N 07850W 5693 04850 0075 +010 -089 062012 013 /// /// 03
210800 2634N 07847W 5692 04850 0078 +009 -094 056012 013 /// /// 03
210830 2633N 07845W 5693 04849 0080 +007 -077 052013 013 /// /// 03
210900 2633N 07842W 5693 04849 0085 +004 -075 046012 013 /// /// 03
210930 2633N 07840W 5693 04851 0091 +002 -076 047013 014 /// /// 03
211000 2632N 07837W 5695 04847 0096 -002 -049 045013 013 /// /// 03
211030 2632N 07835W 5693 04849 0089 +002 -065 046015 016 /// /// 03
211100 2630N 07833W 5692 04848 0088 +003 -097 041017 021 /// /// 03
211130 2628N 07831W 5695 04844 0076 +009 -095 036020 021 /// /// 03
211200 2626N 07830W 5694 04847 0082 +007 -091 030019 020 /// /// 03
211230 2624N 07828W 5694 04845 0076 +008 -076 026019 019 025 000 03
211300 2623N 07827W 5693 04843 0070 +010 -082 027016 017 025 000 00
211330 2621N 07825W 5694 04843 0066 +011 -072 030016 017 025 000 00

[jabman98]

at what point in time is a hurricane path for certain?

Is it when it is actually here...... ?!

Well, yeah. That's the only time anyone will know for certain if the forecast track is right. Of course as it gets closer the cone gets narrower and the forecasting is more accurate.

Remember that even if the eye isn't on top of you, you can still have extensive damage from a hurricane. And that intensity isn't everything. The storm surge can be just as damaging if not more so. Pay attention to NHC warnings and listen to your local authorities for instructions about what to do in your particular area.

[cycloneye]

AF plane departs. Who wants to post the AF?

URNT15 KNHC 242117
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 02 20110824
210800 1742N 06449W 0093 ///// 0095 +282 +249 132003 010 /// /// 23
210830 1742N 06448W 0090 00014 0097 +275 +248 137014 019 /// /// 03
210900 1742N 06447W 9859 00234 0119 +257 +245 140017 018 /// /// 03
210930 1742N 06445W 9564 00473 0106 +234 //// 140020 021 /// /// 05
211000 1742N 06444W 9112 00928 0118 +209 //// 141023 023 /// /// 05
211030 1742N 06442W 8860 01190 0134 +192 //// 143023 024 /// /// 05
211100 1744N 06442W 8604 01198 0013 +177 //// 146022 024 /// /// 05
211130 1745N 06443W 8297 01721 0103 +170 +149 146016 017 /// /// 03
211200 1745N 06445W 8046 01918 0059 +156 +118 145016 017 /// /// 03
211230 1746N 06447W 7797 02149 0018 +144 +098 137015 016 /// /// 03
211300 1746N 06449W 7510 02564 0067 +131 +074 128012 013 /// /// 03
211330 1747N 06451W 7275 02837 0108 +109 +062 132013 013 /// /// 03
211400 1748N 06452W 7056 03093 0113 +092 +050 137013 014 /// /// 03
211430 1748N 06454W 6852 03347 0116 +083 +026 137013 014 /// /// 03
211500 1749N 06456W 6640 03607 0118 +069 +018 134011 012 /// /// 03
211530 1749N 06458W 6457 03841 0120 +054 +020 129011 011 /// /// 03
211600 1750N 06500W 6279 04068 0122 +040 +007 110012 013 /// /// 03
211630 1751N 06502W 6137 04256 0122 +029 -007 115012 014 /// /// 03
211700 1751N 06503W 5986 04430 0104 +017 -017 122012 012 /// /// 03
211730 1752N 06505W 5848 04621 0088 +006 -029 120011 012 /// /// 03
$$

[Bocadude85]

Not sure the eye is going to pass over Long Island Bahamas... its going to be close thats for sure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html