ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

I does look like an EWRC is underway.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[Raebie]

And The Situation. We need to be sure.

[hurricaneCW]

I wonder what kind of effects Irene will have on New Jersey, storm surge wise, rain wise, wind wise and more. We get nor'easters all the time and they pound the coastline but never anything of this significance if Irene does come close to the Jersey shore.

Have Snookie stand on the beach, Irene may just run east!

[TampaFl]

Noticed on the latest WV loop a ULL off the S.C. coast & now one that has developed off the FL. West Coast drifting south. Could tthese along with the CIMSS Chart showing the highs "bridging" have any bearing on the future track of Irene ??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KWBC 242033
NOAA2 1609A IRENE HDOB 02 20110824
202400 2716N 08225W 6744 03483 0135 +069 +006 040012 013 /// /// 03
202430 2716N 08223W 6655 03590 0134 +061 -010 023009 010 /// /// 03
202500 2715N 08221W 6490 03798 0132 +051 -022 031005 006 /// /// 03
202530 2714N 08219W 6348 03981 0128 +043 -029 005006 008 /// /// 03
202600 2714N 08217W 6228 04135 0134 +030 -033 023009 010 /// /// 03
202630 2713N 08215W 6136 04256 0131 +024 -035 023011 012 /// /// 03
202700 2712N 08213W 6025 04406 0130 +015 -041 017011 013 /// /// 03
202730 2712N 08211W 5965 04483 0120 +016 -067 042008 009 /// /// 03
202800 2711N 08208W 5861 04625 0112 +014 -096 042007 008 /// /// 03
202830 2711N 08206W 5818 04685 0109 +010 -107 048008 009 /// /// 03
202900 2710N 08204W 5742 04791 0115 +001 -103 049010 010 /// /// 03
202930 2709N 08202W 5695 04859 0112 -001 -126 054010 010 /// /// 03
203000 2709N 08159W 5701 04844 0111 -002 -110 053009 010 /// /// 03
203030 2708N 08157W 5685 04868 0111 -004 -106 042009 009 /// /// 03
203100 2707N 08154W 5715 04823 0108 +000 -098 042010 011 /// /// 03
203130 2707N 08152W 5674 04887 0109 -003 -100 040006 008 /// /// 03
203200 2706N 08150W 5691 04858 0106 -002 -101 039008 008 /// /// 03
203230 2704N 08148W 5695 04853 0102 +000 -106 043009 009 /// /// 03
203300 2703N 08145W 5717 04820 0102 +001 -096 047011 011 /// /// 03
203330 2701N 08143W 5686 04866 0105 -002 -090 042011 012 /// /// 03

[Raebie]

"Now Meteorologically, A direct landfall over NC (Wilmington area) on Saturday would weaken the storm far more and only allow a weaker Cat 1 at worst passing by NY some 24-36 hours later. The storm will undoubtedly bring nasty weather for this time frame, hopefully a major disaster resulting from this storm will not happen in New England or anywhere else. This is my hope!"

Hope for something else. I have a house and 2 kids in Wilmington. TYVM...

Your area is also included, sorry for the confusion. I hope your family is prepared! I am really afraid this storm is the real deal.

No harm. It's maddening trying to figure out what to tell them to do (evacs). They have food, water, batteries, full tanks of gas...I just don't know whether or not to tell them to get the hell back to Charlotte. Hopefully Wilmington is taking an overly cautious approach given the number of kids there. Arg.

[Aric Dunn]

Noticed on the latest WV loop a ULL off the S.C. coast & now one that has developed off the FL. West Coast drifting south. Could tthese along with the CIMSS Chart showing the highs "bridgeing" have any bearing on the future track of Irene ??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

Looks like trof might be flattening out a little in KY. The TX death ridge has shifted a little west, I know I'm in CO and it's close to 100 degrees here. This is different than yesterday's trof which easily made it into FL.

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

one of the things I have been watching all day is that mid to upper low just off SC. it has yet to move out of the way. its essentially on the cusp of the two ridges and the shortwave. which way that moves and when will give us the first signs that irene will start turning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[bahamaswx]

South side of georgetown a few hours ago. Conditions have deteriorated since.

[SunnyThoughts]

NOAA plane in route per the recon thread, AF headed back out in about 40 minutes or so. We'll have 2 planes inside the storm at the same time again. Should get some great info concerning any ERC as well as how strong she's become and direction she's moving..

[micktooth]

Aric, I have to agree with you regarding the upper level swirl near SC. Also looks like one is forming in the eastern Gulf as the TX high moves slightly west.

[Ntxw]

Noticed on the latest WV loop a ULL off the S.C. coast & now one that has developed off the FL. West Coast drifting south. Could tthese along with the CIMSS Chart showing the highs "bridgeing" have any bearing on the future track of Irene ??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

The weak trough you are talking about will get reinforced/merge and picked up by the larger trough coming down the Tennessee Valley and in tandem help Irene move north.

[KWT]

Does kinda look like the hurricane has slowed a little in the last hour, it could jsut be an illusion of the strengthening of the westyern eyewall as well, need more images as per normal!

I'm very interested in what recon will show when it goes through Irene in the near future...

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Looks like one of the stations I posted earlier is right on the north end of Eleuthra.

http://aprs.fi/?call=a%2FCW3767

[fci]

there is no way it is going NNW right now, it is barely NW the past 6 hours, right on the edge of wnw and nw

I don't know, I saw plots done on a map a few pages back and , provided they were accurate; they sure "looked" NW to me.

[DTMEDIC]

The Northeast media will crap themselves if an eye looking like that starts headed up the seaboard!!!

Especially if its headed toward NYC. Do you all think we will see Cantore broadcasting in NYC? Plus, how in god's name would they evacuate people?

He posted on TWC that he was headed to Cape Cod.

[SNOW_JOKE]

A crude chart of the track/times (UT) I made from 1pm this afternoon up until now. Shows the timing/speeds and direction Irene is currently tracking at.

[Aric Dunn]

there is no way it is going NNW right now, it is barely NW the past 6 hours, right on the edge of wnw and nw

I don't know, I saw plots done on a map a few pages back and , provided they were accurate; they sure "looked" NW to me.

yeah the last few VDM from the last plane were 307... however true NW is 315.... but not that far off. the last few hours however seem more 295 or 300.. will see what recon says though .

[northtxboy]

hurricane track 1821,,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1821_ ... ck_Map.gif

[KWT]

Great track map SJ, that gives a clear identication of the current track, motion over the last couple of hours looks mainly WNW, going to need to pick up latitude soon, a small shift in track means a big difference for the possible land impacts on the Bahamas.

[CronkPSU]

storms over florida are still moving east to west...