ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

if you throw up the 0000Z forecast point...isn't she giong to get there sooner than predicted (almost there now)? Is she moving faster?

yes she is a couple hours faster and slightly to the left. and if the motion continues for 2 more hours then she will be well west of that 00z point.

[jlauderdal]

Family in long island reporting HEAVY rain, winds approaching hurricane force.

Well, that weather hasn't got anything to do with Irene!!

long island in the bahamas which is the next stop for irene

[Weatherboy1]

Also worth noting that the cloud shield doesn't appear to be flattening out on the west side yet and/or "pointing" to the NNW or N. That typically indicates an imminent turn, a la Floyd in 1999...

[Weatherboy1]

Also worth noting that the cloud shield doesn't appear to be flattening out on the west side yet and/or "pointing" to the NNW or N. That typically indicates an imminent turn, a la Floyd in 1999...

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like trof might be flattening out a little in KY. The TX death ridge has shifted a little west, I know I'm in CO and it's close to 100 degrees here. This is different than yesterday's trof which easily made it into FL.

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

one of the things I have been watching all day is that mid to upper low just off SC. it has yet to move out of the way. its essentially on the cusp of the two ridges and the shortwave. which way that moves and when will give us the first signs that irene will start turning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[FireRat]

I agree that JB's forecast may be too aggressive for New England....if the storm is there on Monday the 29th. The current hurricane disaster risk date period (8/22-8/28) ends on the 28th, and the 29th looks like a calmer date so a storm then would be weaker than expected or miss major populated areas, hopefully offering some hope. North carolina and the Mid Atlantic coast should see the worst of Irene in the U.S. The Bahamas are no doubt getting lashed and will continue being creamed tomorrow. The worst dates are August 25th and 27th. This is based on a method I'm testing so please heed the NHC forecasts for Irene's future.

Now Meteorologically, A direct landfall over NC (Wilmington area) on Saturday would weaken the storm far more and only allow a weaker Cat 1 at worst passing by NY some 24-36 hours later. The storm will undoubtedly bring nasty weather for this time frame, hopefully a major disaster resulting from this storm will not happen in New England or anywhere else. This is my hope! Of course the models are showing a nearly worst case track and strength for the NE, so be on watch.

[jlauderdal]

if you throw up the 0000Z forecast point...isn't she giong to get there sooner than predicted (almost there now)? Is she moving faster?

yes she is a couple hours faster and slightly to the left. and if the motion continues for 2 more hours then she will be well west of that 00z point.

it wont take much of a miss to put some ts winds on the EC of FL. And then a couple of wobbles and Aric is putting up shutters,

Breezy conditions have commenced in NE FLL this afternoon.

[GCANE]

TPW is showing a dry region in the boundary layer to the west and south of Irene.

However, WV loop is showing that the mid-levels of that region are moistening.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I suspect a new in-feed will kick in within 12 hrs or so coming from the unstable air over the loop current and over the west Carib.

That should allow Irene to reach her maximum intensity probably sometime tomorrow after sun-down.

IMHO, a better than 50% chance she'll be a Cat 5 then baring any unexpected EWRC.

[Aric Dunn]

if you throw up the 0000Z forecast point...isn't she giong to get there sooner than predicted (almost there now)? Is she moving faster?

yes she is a couple hours faster and slightly to the left. and if the motion continues for 2 more hours then she will be well west of that 00z point.

it wont take much of a miss to put some ts winds on the EC of FL. And then a couple of wobbles and Aric is putting up shutters,

Breezy conditions have commenced in NE FLL this afternoon.

lol.. I chase I go where the storm goes... except this time Im not driving all the up to Carolina for a maybe..

[gatorcane]

Looping this VIS loop provided by tolkaram, she may be stalling some as she approaches Long Island in the Bahamas. Perhaps, finally we will start to see a more true 315 NW movement commence:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[artist]

Also On its present course ( if unchanged ) would take it across long island and into exuma in the next 6 hours. by which time it would very far off the forecast path.. needs to start turning now not in an hour.. passing west of forecast point now.

Regardless, isn't it quite close right now to the forecasted path?

[Jevo]

Also worth noting that the cloud shield doesn't appear to be flattening out on the west side yet and/or "pointing" to the NNW or N. That typically indicates an imminent turn, a la Floyd in 1999...

The flattening effect is usually the case with a system that is going up against a diving trough kind of like hitting a wall and bouncing off.. In Irene's case the turn is going to be the result of a weakness in the ridge.. The storm will slow and the cloud shield may temporarly elongate in the direction of the turn, but we shouldnt see it flatten out

[Raebie]

"Now Meteorologically, A direct landfall over NC (Wilmington area) on Saturday would weaken the storm far more and only allow a weaker Cat 1 at worst passing by NY some 24-36 hours later. The storm will undoubtedly bring nasty weather for this time frame, hopefully a major disaster resulting from this storm will not happen in New England or anywhere else. This is my hope!"

Hope for something else. I have a house and 2 kids in Wilmington. TYVM...

[cycloneye]

The next round of missions start right now with the NOAA plane,The AF plane departs at 5:15 PM EDT.


URNT15 KWBC 242023
NOAA2 1609A IRENE HDOB 01 20110824
201400 2752N 08231W 0099 00020 0122 +325 +237 296003 005 /// /// 03
201430 2751N 08231W 0079 00036 0123 +313 +227 001004 005 /// /// 03
201500 2750N 08232W 9931 00169 0119 +298 +220 018005 007 /// /// 03
201530 2748N 08232W 9808 00285 0127 +285 +218 010007 008 /// /// 03
201600 2746N 08232W 9592 00481 0125 +269 +211 033008 009 /// /// 03
201630 2744N 08232W 9388 00668 0122 +254 +198 039010 011 /// /// 03
201700 2742N 08232W 9141 00903 0124 +233 +195 052011 012 /// /// 03
201730 2740N 08232W 8892 01142 0124 +213 +190 060011 012 /// /// 03
201800 2738N 08233W 8698 01332 0122 +202 +169 064012 012 /// /// 03
201830 2736N 08233W 8497 01534 0122 +191 +154 063011 012 /// /// 03
201900 2735N 08233W 8189 01853 0124 +175 +117 073013 014 /// /// 03
201930 2733N 08233W 8060 01988 0128 +160 +112 070011 012 /// /// 03
202000 2731N 08232W 7941 02115 0125 +149 +139 068009 010 /// /// 03
202030 2729N 08231W 7607 02478 0127 +134 +084 049008 009 /// /// 03
202100 2727N 08230W 7453 02653 0134 +118 +067 051008 009 /// /// 03
202130 2725N 08229W 7314 02809 0130 +113 +049 040009 010 /// /// 03
202200 2724N 08229W 7073 03093 0139 +090 +036 033008 011 /// /// 03
202230 2722N 08227W 7001 03175 0139 +085 +026 013007 008 /// /// 03
202300 2720N 08227W 6875 03324 0139 +075 +030 032007 010 /// /// 03
202330 2718N 08226W 6799 03416 0136 +069 +041 025007 010 /// /// 03

[FireRat]

....I wouldn't rule out a CAT 5 given the storm's evolution today. Cat 4 is almost certain....

DISCLOSURE?

oops, thanks for the reminder.....here you go:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxnear.cgi ... opsub=Find

Here is a feed of a couple stations near Nassau. I don't know how or what they are, but the first 2 claim to be within 30 miles or so of NPI. Both showing 20mph or so right now.

[mpic]

Am I correct that, since Irene will be skirting the coast, I shouldn't be too affected flying to Charlotte? Looks like it's about 250 miles inland from Surf City.

[Aric Dunn]

Looping this VIS loop provided by tolkaram, she may be stalling some as she approaches Long Island in the Bahamas. Perhaps, finally we will start to see a more true 315 NW movement commence:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

think thats the convection building on the NW side... have to wait and see of course.

[bzukajo]

I wonder what kind of effects Irene will have on New Jersey, storm surge wise, rain wise, wind wise and more. We get nor'easters all the time and they pound the coastline but never anything of this significance if Irene does come close to the Jersey shore.

Have Snookie stand on the beach, Irene may just run east!

[FireRat]

"Now Meteorologically, A direct landfall over NC (Wilmington area) on Saturday would weaken the storm far more and only allow a weaker Cat 1 at worst passing by NY some 24-36 hours later. The storm will undoubtedly bring nasty weather for this time frame, hopefully a major disaster resulting from this storm will not happen in New England or anywhere else. This is my hope!"

Hope for something else. I have a house and 2 kids in Wilmington. TYVM...

Your area is also included, sorry for the confusion. I hope your family is prepared! I am really afraid this storm is the real deal.