ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP courtesy of wunderground.com

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... t_anim.gif

Averaging out the movement over the last 8 hours, and with the aid of a transparent x-y grid to follow the eye, looks like our Irene is moving near 300 degrees in general. Now we're awaiting the ever important NNW turn soon. Nail biting time for forecasters begins NOW.

so it is still not even moving Northwest yet?

It sort of is but not really a true 315

[Aric Dunn]

Next stop... Long island...then exumas and Nassau ...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP courtesy of wunderground.com

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... t_anim.gif

Averaging out the movement over the last 8 hours, and with the aid of a transparent x-y grid to follow the eye, looks like our Irene is moving near 300 degrees in general. Now we're awaiting the ever important NNW turn soon. Nail biting time for forecasters begins NOW.

so it is still not even moving Northwest yet?

Its stairstepping. More of a WNWW

Very soon it will turn (I hope)

[OuterBanker]

There really is a reason for posting my question. The NC govenor is saying theat the brunt of the storm will probably stay off shore sparing the south beaches. Of course we are the north beaches, but most think that applies here too.

http://www.wxii12.com/weather/28949226/ ... z1Vy13qDe6

[Jevo]

Looking at the latest steering.. there is a nice little lane for Irene set up right now... BUT... as we were discussing in the Models thread the 12z euro sets up an interesting scenario.. out towards 94 hours the trough that was originally in place to kick Irene out to Cape Cod and beyond is negativly retrograding and actually pulling the storm into DELMARVA and points northward.... should make for an interesting weekend if it verifies

[bahamaswx]

Next stop... Long island...

[img]http://www.thebahamasguide.com/images/maps/TBG-BAHAMAS-MAP-4.gif[img]

East, West or over Long Island, Bahamas . . . let's see what happens

Looks like she'll cross over the northern extreme.

[Aric Dunn]

Next stop... Long island...

[img]http://www.thebahamasguide.com/images/maps/TBG-BAHAMAS-MAP-4.gif[/mg]

East, West or over Long Island, Bahamas . . . let's see what happens

well according to the last recon the low level center continues to be under the western "visible" eyewall due to tilting. and its also wobble back more to the west again.. long island looks like a direct hit atm ....

[Stormcenter]

The forescast below sounds like it's for a city along the GOM or SE U.S. coastline during hurricane season. It's actually for N.Y.C. .....strange huh?

Sunday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Rain with a chance of thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Sunday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Rain likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

[mf_dolphin]

There really is a reason for posting my question. The NC govenor is saying theat the brunt of the storm will probably stay off shore sparing the south beaches. Of course we are the north beaches, but most think that applies here too.

http://www.wxii12.com/weather/28949226/ ... z1Vy13qDe6

OB having grown up in NC and loving the Outer Banks if it was my family I would leave. Not scientific but not worth the risk either.

[SouthDadeFish]

Uhoh:



I wish recon was out there right now! The eye tightened up big time.

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is a great loop of the eye tightening up:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[CronkPSU]

hmmm wonder how many storms have hit two different Long Islands as hurricanes...

[shaggy]

I was really feeling comfortable about this missing east but just a smal shift to the west again could really hammer eastern NC. IF and I mean IF the 12z's were a start of a westward readjustment of the models then alot of people in NC that thought they were ok won't be. I'm afraid that the potential for this to hit New England will overshadow a much higher risk of a very strong cane hitting NC.

[Raebie]

Most people listen to their local mets, they don't post here. I'm sure that each locality is watching this very closely and informing their citizens.

I have two girls in college at Wilmington NC. I believe in the belt and suspenders approach myself.

[bahamaswx]

Family in long island reporting HEAVY rain, winds approaching hurricane force.

[HurricaneBelle]

hmmm wonder how many storms have hit two different Long Islands as hurricanes...

Looking back at the major Long Island hurricanes, just about all of them traveled NE of the Bahamas before coming up the east coast. Only Carol was close to the Bahamas' Long Island, and she was a depression at that point.

[x-y-no]

Folks - please keep the quoting to a minimum - especially images and animations, etc - not everyone has unlimited bandwidth and computing power.

[Aric Dunn]

Family in long island reporting HEAVY rain, winds approaching hurricane force.

yeah. western eyewall coming ashore now.

[CronkPSU]

hmmm wonder how many storms have hit two different Long Islands as hurricanes...

Looking back at the major Long Island hurricanes, just about all of them traveled NE of the Bahamas before coming up the east coast. Only Carol was close to the Bahamas' Long Island, and she was a depression at that point.

that's kind of what i figured...almost 200 years of hurricane paths and this may be the first one to ever do that!

[Ivanhater]

She is really going to town right now looking at visible.