ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SNOW_JOKE]

Again misinformation (do you even live in the Bahamas?)
The highest place in the islands is Cat Island over 60m, On New Providence on which Nassau sits the max elevation asl is 5m (16ft.)

[Portastorm]

Well RECON reported an open eye so perhaps it is weakening.

Please do not make these posts without any kind of scientific reasoning. This storm is not weakening and posts like this only confuse folks who are here for the latest information.

[xironman]

Well RECON reported an open eye so perhaps it is weakening.

A while back we noted a couple of features that "suggested" an eye wall replacement

[SouthFloridawx]

Actually it was reported that eye was open in the Southwest.

Well RECON reported an open eye so perhaps it is weakening.

Please do not make these posts without any kind of scientific reasoning. This storm is not weakening and posts like this only confuse folks who are here for the latest information.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 17:03:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°33'N 74°09'W (22.55N 74.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 205 miles (330 km) to the NNE (32°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,697m (8,848ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 34° at 80kts (From between the NNE and NE at ~ 92.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 954mb (28.17 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:52:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 106kts (~ 122.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NW (317°) from the flight level center

[fci]

Hello I am new to this forum. I just wanted to share this amazing animation whit you.
Keep up the good work!

http://www.nasa.gov/mov/581936main_2011 ... eVideo.mov

WOW!!!
What a super cool movie.
Amazing to watch how she just explodes and then the eye starts popping out.
Thank you, that was SO cool!

[mutley]

Latest steering:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

[bahamaswx]

Again misinformation (do you even live in the Bahamas?)
The highest place in the islands is Cat Island over 60m, On New Providence on which Nassau sits the max elevation asl is 5m (16ft.)

Is this a joke?



Do you suppose this staircase, for example, in downtown Nassau is all of 16ft high? And no, this isn't even close to being the highest point on the island.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest steering:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

yep ridging still holding so far.

animation. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 3java.html

[fci]

Here's a website with a pretty good new interactive model plotting application:

http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

Thanks wxman, great tool. Really lets you see the tracks

[SNOW_JOKE]

Again misinformation (do you even live in the Bahamas?)
The highest place in the islands is Cat Island over 60m, On New Providence on which Nassau sits the max elevation asl is 5m (16ft.)

Is this a joke?



Do you suppose this staircase, for example, in downtown Nassau is all of 16ft high? And no, this isn't even close to being the highest point on the island.

asl accounts for land above sea level. not buildings, staircases, or otherwise. Anyway those who know what I mean have that information now.

[Canelaw99]

Latest steering:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

That weakness looks awfully thin to these completely amateur eyes....

[fci]

Again misinformation (do you even live in the Bahamas?)
The highest place in the islands is Cat Island over 60m, On New Providence on which Nassau sits the max elevation asl is 5m (16ft.)

Is this a joke?



Do you suppose this staircase, for example, in downtown Nassau is all of 16ft high? And no, this isn't even close to being the highest point on the island.

asl accounts for land above sea level. not buildings, staircases, or otherwise. Anyway those who know what I mean have that information now.

Can y'all stop quibbling about Bahamian facts?
You have someone who lives there, is possibly experiencing or about to experience; a hurricane and y'all quibble over details really not too relevant.
If you want to argue over Bahamian facts, maybe take it to PM's!
Good luck to our friend in The Bahamas!!

[GCANE]

Latest TRMM pass about 3 hrs ago showing again inner-band hot towers.

So, looks like further intensification is still highly probable due to strong convective forcing of Vortex Rossby Waves.

For anyone who would like to know more, Dr Montgomery has authored some great papers.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcint98/MM_22.html

[viberama]

At this moment Irene seems to be really blowing up again. I know it pulses up and down but it's really building right now.

[FireRat]

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP courtesy of wunderground.com



Averaging out the movement over the last 8 hours, and with the aid of a transparent x-y grid to follow the eye, looks like our Irene is moving near 300 degrees in general. Now we're awaiting the ever important NNW turn soon. Nail biting time for forecasters begins NOW.

[Meteorcane]

At this moment Irene seems to be really blowing up again. I know it pulses up and down but it's really building right now.

One interesting thing about Irene and I attribute this to a relatively solid inner core (also less land interaction/shear although there still is dry air but she has not had many problems with that) is that unlike many of the previous systems (namely Don and Emily) which essentially strengthened for 12 hours than weakened for another 12, and essentially kept going in that general cycle Irene has been more consistent in her strengthening, any weakening is usually very short and not pronounced.

[Extratropical94]

That pinhole eye visible in the very last frame looks kinda impressive to me. Cat 4 seems reasonable for the next 24-36 hours.
The only thing that can slow it down intensity-wise now would be an EWRC.

[Portastorm]

Can y'all stop quibbling about Bahamian facts?
You have someone who lives there, is possibly experiencing or about to experience; a hurricane and y'all quibble over details really not too relevant.
If you want to argue over Bahamian facts, maybe take it to PM's!
Good luck to our friend in The Bahamas!!

Agreed! We mods will delete any further posting about this. Take it PMs gang if you want to continue the debate.

[bahamaswx]

That pinhole eye visible in the very last frame looks kinda impressive to me. Cat 4 seems reasonable for the next 24-36 hours.
The only thing that can slow it down intensity-wise now would be an EWRC.

Tiny eye.

[CronkPSU]

LATEST SATELLITE LOOP courtesy of wunderground.com

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... t_anim.gif

Averaging out the movement over the last 8 hours, and with the aid of a transparent x-y grid to follow the eye, looks like our Irene is moving near 300 degrees in general. Now we're awaiting the ever important NNW turn soon. Nail biting time for forecasters begins NOW.

so it is still not even moving Northwest yet?