ATL: IRENE - Models

[xironman]

Here is a better look, almost looks like it is going negative

[sweetpea]

What does that mean "going negative"

Thank you!
Debbie

[rainstorm]

from DT: on euro

Wxrisk.com
‎***12Z EURO ALERT... European Models SLOWS Irene approach to the coast down and is ALSO closer to the coast Morwe west ... Goes over HATTERAS due North CRUSHING HIT to VA eastern shore and Lower MD eastern shore ... OCEAN CITY MD gets really wiped flat. Irene turns DUE NORTH up the 75 west long line

[BigA]

What would a negative or almost negative upper level trough do to Irene's track?

Also, the ECMWF through 96 hours looks almost identical to the last two runs...its being quite consistent with a track over the extreme outer banks, then northward just along the east coast.

[BensonTCwatcher]

UKMET was first in with the more western higher ridge solution. If we see the ECMWF and GFS show this (I didn't see the CMC yet) I will be concerned. The GFDL is not something I am looking at (sticking Dr. Masters on that point)

[xironman]

The tilt of the trough is going the other way, that tends to pull things in. We see it in northeasters all the time. See what happens... better cancel that trip to the Jersey Shore on Sunday.



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[wxman57]

Here's a website with a pretty good new interactive model plotting application:

http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

[xironman]

What would a negative or almost negative upper level trough do to Irene's track?

Also, the ECMWF through 96 hours looks almost identical to the last two runs...its being quite consistent with a track over the extreme outer banks, then northward just along the east coast.

It is still a storm coming up the coast, a negative tilt may pull it in.

[otowntiger]

Here's a website with a pretty good new interactive model plotting application:

http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

Thanks wxman57. Looking at the end of the model runs for Irene has me wondering if the folks in Greenland are wobble watching! Two models have it hitting southern Greenland!!!

[drezee]

from DT: on euro

Wxrisk.com
‎***12Z EURO ALERT... European Models SLOWS Irene approach to the coast down and is ALSO closer to the coast Morwe west ... Goes over HATTERAS due North CRUSHING HIT to VA eastern shore and Lower MD eastern shore ... OCEAN CITY MD gets really wiped flat. Irene turns DUE NORTH up the 75 west long line

Yes, the high res of the 12z Euro made me throw-up a little in my throat. That is a terrible run for the East Coast!

[xironman]

Hello Vermont! That's about a 200 mile shift.

[sandyb]

What would a negative or almost negative upper level trough do to Irene's track?

Also, the ECMWF through 96 hours looks almost identical to the last two runs...its being quite consistent with a track over the extreme outer banks, then northward just along the east coast.

It is still a storm coming up the coast, a negative tilt may pull it in.

where are you talking it could pull it into? im in cartert county nc

[xironman]

from DT: on euro

Wxrisk.com
‎***12Z EURO ALERT... European Models SLOWS Irene approach to the coast down and is ALSO closer to the coast Morwe west ... Goes over HATTERAS due North CRUSHING HIT to VA eastern shore and Lower MD eastern shore ... OCEAN CITY MD gets really wiped flat. Irene turns DUE NORTH up the 75 west long line

Yes, the high res of the 12z Euro made me throw-up a little in my throat. That is a terrible run for the East Coast!

Sweet map, thanks I am going to use it.

[xironman]

What would a negative or almost negative upper level trough do to Irene's track?

Also, the ECMWF through 96 hours looks almost identical to the last two runs...its being quite consistent with a track over the extreme outer banks, then northward just along the east coast.

It is still a storm coming up the coast, a negative tilt may pull it in.

where are you talking it could pull it into? im in cartert county nc

No idea I am just a monkey with a keyboard and a broadband connection, but when I saw that tilt I thought it might drag it into the Mid Atlantic (my area), we see it all the time on coastal storms, and so it did. Only guys like wx57 have any idea how this stuff works.

[drezee]

It is as if Joe Bastardi drew the Euro!!!

[petit_bois]

It is as if Joe Bastardi drew the Euro!!!

yep... he's been warning us about this one for a long time

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The odds are more and more tipping in favor of a big one in the next 72 hours


Isnt there a frontal system over the great lakes? wheres the deflector shield?

[SunnyThoughts]

My daughter has a left over house guest from the wedding this past weekend. She is suppose to fly out on Sunday to Binghamton NY lol I told her just to reschedule her flight for a week later considering she doesn't have to be back for work for 2 more weeks. This is going to be soooooo disruptive, (other forms other than wind damage and flooding of course which is a given) Can't even imagine how many airports along the east coast are going to have to close if all this comes to fruition. What a nightmare setting up for so many people. Good luck everybody. pheww

[Jevo]

It is as if Joe Bastardi drew the Euro!!!

I was under the assumption that JB's brain was the Euro...

Now the big question is does the GFS support the negative trough theory in the 18z run. I would like nothing more than to see a Euro vs GFS showdown on forecast verification... Seeing as they are both widely regarded as the most accurate model suites currently available

[xironman]

It is as if Joe Bastardi drew the Euro!!!

Good thing this is 105hrs out and things will change, what a disaster.