ATL: IRENE - Models

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HurrMark
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#4761 Postby HurrMark » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:19 am

Only difference so far from 06Z (through 102 hrs) is that it is slightly delayed...
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xironman
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4762 Postby xironman » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:21 am

The shortwave kicker is quite a bit behind, but the end result is still close to the same.
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#4763 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:21 am

Jevo wrote:12z GFS +36

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

12z GFS +48

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Im off to work.. someone pick up the rest of the run




The 48 hour map is interesting as the overlap of the ridge depicted at the 1014 isobar also the height is stronger over the great lakes but it's gone again by 84. Have to see if this will hold . UKMET had this happening to some degree as well.
Last edited by BensonTCwatcher on Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4764 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:22 am

although its the nogaps...
it now has it going over andros islands.. decent shift west and s early on. open in 2 tabs and toggle

12z
Image

6z

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4765 Postby xironman » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:26 am

Is that like 968 in the Gulf of Maine? lol

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4766 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:28 am

Aric Dunn wrote:although its the nogaps...
it now has it going over andros islands.. decent shift west and s early on. open in 2 tabs and toggle

12z
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

6z

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif



It looks to me the 12z GFS Shifted a tad west also with the center over Abaco..
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4767 Postby HurrMark » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:28 am

xironman wrote:The shortwave kicker is quite a bit behind, but the end result is still close to the same.


More or less...virtually no change.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4768 Postby GTStorm » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:30 am

am I just -removed-, or does Irene get a little closer to the SC coast in the 12Z GFS run before making her turn to the NNE
(and for the record, I do not want to have anything to do w/ Irene...I just assume she head out to sea and affect no one)
Last edited by GTStorm on Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4769 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:31 am

xironman wrote:Is that like 968 in the Gulf of Maine? lol

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/9074/captureofm.png


Well in 1954 Hurricane Edna made landfall near Eastport Maine with a pressure of at least 970 mb (likely lower) and 85 mph sustained winds, so it can happen. Going by the model structure, Irene looks to be either extratropical there or else on her way to becoming so.
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#4770 Postby rainstorm » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:33 am

i wouldnt say no changes. the overall pattern shown at 12z would argue for a slightly futher west motion. it wont have to go too far west to come in west of hatteras and really whack se va. will be interesting to see if the gfdl slides a bit west.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4771 Postby xironman » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:39 am

HurrMark wrote:
xironman wrote:The shortwave kicker is quite a bit behind, but the end result is still close to the same.


More or less...virtually no change.


Yeah, but there is a definite slowdown in the pattern, for us in VA the timing could be important. Definitely going to check the Euro
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4772 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:43 am

Nogaps 42 hours.. about 75 west of 6z puts TS winds on coast.

12z

Image


6z

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4773 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:45 am

Aric, your images are not showing up.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4774 Postby ncweatherwizard » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:46 am

A bit old, but I haven't seen this posted: 06Z GFSE-Enkf tightened up a bit more compared to 00Z:

Image
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#4775 Postby mf_dolphin » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:46 am

fox13weather wrote:over one million hits on our web site yesterday ..we are proud of what we have accomplished...

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com


check it out ...thank you!

Great job! I just had to take a peek at ours for comparison...

22 Aug 2011 Hits = 7,995,315 Bandwidth consumed = 44.65 GB
23 Aug 2011 Hits = 5,373,059 Bandwidth consumed = 37.97 GB

We have fanatical members :-)
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4776 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:47 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:Aric, your images are not showing up.



Yeah, I can't see them either.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4777 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:47 am

I see the images fine. And that certainly is close to having tropical storm force winds brushing the coast there..
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4778 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:49 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Aric, your images are not showing up.



Yeah, I can't see them either.


open in 2 tabs and toggle

12z
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

6z
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: Re:

#4779 Postby seahawkjd » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:50 am

mf_dolphin wrote:
fox13weather wrote:over one million hits on our web site yesterday ..we are proud of what we have accomplished...

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com


check it out ...thank you!

Great job! I just had to take a peek at ours for comparison...

22 Aug 2011 Hits = 7,995,315 Bandwidth consumed = 44.65 GB
23 Aug 2011 Hits = 5,373,059 Bandwidth consumed = 37.97 GB

We have fanatical members :-)


and clearly 1/3 of them are in Florida lol.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4780 Postby hurricanedude » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:51 am

so looks like the East shifts have stopped, and now west shifts have began, NC/VA and New England may be in a world of hurt!
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