ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[WYNweather]

Wind starting to pick up beach side in Pompano Beach. SOO gladd this is going notrh. Hope the east trend continues. Would not wish this storm on anybody.

[CronkPSU]

Talk about real-time info for the NHC. When there are two planes in there and a G-IV flight going on, you know something is up.

well it possibly could affect what 80 millions people in the metroplex of DC/Philly/NYC/Boston, they bettter have all their resources out there

[RL3AO]

018
URNT15 KWBC 241333
NOAA2 1309A IRENE HDOB 32 20110824
132330 2305N 07236W 7519 02476 0005 +131 +117 124078 079 052 010 00
132400 2304N 07238W 7518 02475 9994 +139 +122 125075 077 052 012 00
132430 2302N 07239W 7517 02477 9998 +133 +125 125078 081 052 010 00
132500 2301N 07241W 7519 02469 9993 +133 +131 131078 080 054 009 00
132530 2300N 07242W 7519 02465 9986 +134 //// 135076 079 055 006 01
132600 2258N 07244W 7518 02466 9983 +134 //// 134083 087 056 010 01
132630 2257N 07245W 7523 02451 9973 +137 +142 139088 091 059 015 00
132700 2256N 07246W 7546 02421 9965 +141 +139 141091 092 060 015 00
132730 2254N 07248W 7523 02439 9960 +137 +142 140092 094 059 012 00
132800 2253N 07249W 7485 02476 9944 +146 +143 143091 093 060 015 00
132830 2252N 07251W 7503 02451 9945 +138 //// 139092 096 060 020 01
132900 2251N 07252W 7452 02520 9958 +131 //// 142082 084 056 039 01
132930 2249N 07253W 7485 02486 9969 +128 //// 141069 071 062 014 05
133000 2248N 07255W 7494 02470 9960 +133 //// 143076 078 058 009 01
133030 2247N 07256W 7520 02437 9950 +142 +132 144074 075 057 006 00
133100 2245N 07258W 7518 02434 9950 +136 +136 143076 078 059 008 00
133130 2244N 07259W 7512 02441 9947 +135 //// 138078 078 060 011 01
133200 2243N 07300W 7517 02428 9939 +136 //// 131074 076 065 010 01
133230 2241N 07302W 7518 02420 9929 +140 +145 131076 077 061 013 00
133300 2240N 07303W 7515 02420 9923 +140 //// 134079 082 062 013 01

[RL3AO]

101
URNT12 KNHC 241335
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 24/13:15:00Z
B. 22 deg 09 min N
073 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2714 m
D. NA
E. NA
F. 213 deg 102 kt
G. 118 deg 13 nm
H. 956 mb
I. 9 C / 3051 m
J. 18 C / 3050 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 1409A IRENE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 110 KT NE QUAD 11:42:10Z
;

Eye is contracting and the temp difference is increasing.

[Gorky]

Wow, woke up this morning to another eastward shift. I can't believe that the USA SHOULD be spared another USA landfall. Yea, it's going to be close, but I just can't believe how lucky we've been throughout the years....... One thing for sure, I will never ever trust GFS long range model forecasts again, or any of them for that matter, as they completely blew this one big time!

Not sure why you are thinking the US should be spared when the NHC and the mornings GFS, HWRF and Euro runs all forcast a potentially devastating landfall in the North East still Whilst the GDFL actually makes landfall in NC still. Are there any models out there not forecasting a US hit somewhere up the east coast?

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Can someone explain why this system fared so much better than previous systems this season?

She's away from the death ridge and its northerly shear.
Away from SAL also. She's probably a preview of what the rest of the storms or tropical waves that get to this general area will probably become as it looks like this is the best area with the best environment, as long as they stay away from Hispaniola.

The other systems all were experiencing cycles of intensification and weakening.

Roughly, a repeating pattern of 12hrs intensification followed by 12 hrs weakening.

I showed many times, with AMSU sounding data, that the cores were being compressed during the weakening part of the cycle.

The core would bounce back to a normal height during the intensification part.

I didn't see this phenomena with Irene.

I have a theory that solar activity was high during those times and was anomalously heating the ionosphere which in turn pushed down on the troposphere.

Interesting that solar activity is actually high today and yesterday:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_7d.html
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/SWEPAM_7d.html

If you are referring to the x-class flare on 9 August, with the corresponding CME arriving around the 12th - I can't see any correlation there.

[littlevince]

[RL3AO]

371
URNT15 KNHC 241342
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 29 20110824
133230 2251N 07421W 6967 03067 //// +101 //// 023059 060 /// /// 05
133300 2252N 07423W 6970 03067 //// +097 //// 024057 058 /// /// 05
133330 2253N 07424W 6963 03077 //// +095 //// 026055 055 /// /// 05
133400 2254N 07425W 6967 03074 //// +090 //// 029052 053 /// /// 05
133430 2256N 07426W 6964 03082 //// +096 //// 030050 051 /// /// 05
133500 2257N 07427W 6967 03078 //// +100 //// 031048 048 /// /// 05
133530 2258N 07429W 6967 03078 //// +105 //// 035049 049 /// /// 05
133600 2259N 07430W 6969 03080 //// +113 //// 039048 049 /// /// 05
133630 2300N 07431W 6967 03082 //// +114 //// 043048 049 /// /// 05
133700 2302N 07433W 6966 03088 //// +110 //// 046048 049 /// /// 05
133730 2303N 07434W 6968 03088 //// +107 //// 047048 048 /// /// 05
133800 2304N 07435W 6966 03091 //// +105 //// 048047 047 /// /// 05
133830 2305N 07436W 6967 03091 //// +100 //// 052048 048 /// /// 05
133900 2307N 07438W 6970 03089 //// +100 //// 053048 048 /// /// 05
133930 2308N 07439W 6969 03094 //// +099 //// 055047 048 /// /// 05
134000 2309N 07441W 6967 03095 //// +099 //// 054047 048 /// /// 05
134030 2311N 07442W 6965 03097 //// +096 //// 055047 047 /// /// 05
134100 2312N 07443W 6970 03091 //// +091 //// 057046 047 /// /// 05
134130 2313N 07445W 6970 03094 //// +092 //// 056046 046 /// /// 05
134200 2314N 07446W 6969 03097 //// +091 //// 054043 045 /// /// 05
$$
;

[HurrMark]

Wow, woke up this morning to another eastward shift. I can't believe that the USA SHOULD be spared another USA landfall. Yea, it's going to be close, but I just can't believe how lucky we've been throughout the years....... One thing for sure, I will never ever trust GFS long range model forecasts again, or any of them for that matter, as they completely blew this one big time!

Not sure why you are thinking the US should be spared when the NHC and the mornings GFS, HWRF and Euro runs all forcast a potentially devastating landfall in the North East still Whilst the GDFL actually makes landfall in NC still. Are there any models out there not forecasting a US hit somewhere up the east coast?

I think the idea is that the models continue to trend eastward towards an out-to-sea solution, and there is no reason to say it won't continue, especially since Irene keeps missing the forecast points to the north. What was unthinkable yesterday (a US miss) is becoming more and more likely with every passing hour. The trend may reverse, but there is no sign of it happening, and with more and more data being fed into the models, a recurve solution is suggested by a greater number of them.

I will say the 12Z runs will be critical...another eastward jog will even more likely result in a US landfall being averted.

[Aric Dunn]

The mid and upper level circ's are definitely tilted. recon fixes are showing the low level center partially under the left side of the visible eye. so the left eyewall we see in satellite is actually where the low level center is.

[Lowpressure]

The mid and upper level circ's are definitely tilted. recon fixes are showing the low level center partially under the left side of the visible eye. so the left eyewall we see in satellite is actually where the low level center is.

Just noticed the same thing on recon thread, 956 was in the sw portion of the eye, interesting tilt.

[RL3AO]

It does seem to be speeding up.

Its moved 28 nmi in 2 1/2 hours between 1st and 3rd vdm's for a speed of about 11kts.

Its only 37 nmi from the center fix with 4 hr 45 min (fix at 1315z) to the 18z forecast

[SNOW_JOKE]

Nassau METAR
http://www.aviador.es/Weather/Decoded_Metar/MYNN

[Aric Dunn]

The mid and upper level circ's are definitely tilted. recon fixes are showing the low level center partially under the left side of the visible eye. so the left eyewall we see in satellite is actually where the low level center is.

Just noticed the same thing on recon thread, 956 was in the sw portion of the eye, interesting tilt.

so actually she is exactly on track ... no right or left atm ...

[RL3AO]

106
URNT15 KWBC 241343
NOAA2 1309A IRENE HDOB 33 20110824
133330 2239N 07305W 7517 02411 9915 +142 +141 137081 082 062 008 00
133400 2237N 07306W 7517 02407 9915 +136 //// 139083 085 062 007 01
133430 2236N 07308W 7518 02399 9905 +139 //// 140085 088 061 010 01
133500 2235N 07309W 7522 02388 9897 +140 //// 137088 090 061 010 01
133530 2234N 07311W 7516 02387 9890 +139 +143 138089 090 064 007 00
133600 2232N 07312W 7529 02363 9877 +142 //// 133093 095 066 007 05
133630 2231N 07314W 7499 02387 9862 +144 +148 141096 098 /// /// 03
133700 2230N 07316W 7519 02352 9852 +143 +147 140100 102 071 010 03
133730 2229N 07317W 7528 02332 9833 +149 +154 142097 098 072 016 00
133800 2228N 07319W 7503 02345 9815 +150 //// 142098 099 071 018 01
133830 2226N 07320W 7523 02307 9802 +147 +151 140101 104 063 036 03
133900 2225N 07322W 7495 02320 9779 +147 //// 140106 108 057 058 05
133930 2224N 07323W 7507 02287 9756 +150 //// 146110 112 075 036 01
134000 2223N 07325W 7531 02242 9735 +151 //// 147113 114 086 017 01
134030 2222N 07326W 7516 02232 9706 +151 //// 151114 115 088 014 01
134100 2221N 07327W 7523 02200 9670 +161 //// 153111 112 091 009 05
134130 2220N 07329W 7496 02202 9636 +163 //// 154110 112 094 010 01
134200 2219N 07331W 7508 02155 9594 +173 +178 155080 091 092 008 00
134230 2218N 07333W 7521 02124 9563 +193 +168 152051 058 080 004 00
134300 2218N 07334W 7546 02090 9552 +208 +146 140035 039 040 001 00


115kt FL and 955mb extrap and not to the center yet.

[Cranica]

The tilt eastward with height would suggest she's being affected by a bit of shear, which would explain why she keeps eating dry air and failing to assemble a solid core.

[Aric Dunn]

It does seem to be speeding up.

Its moved 28 nmi in 2 1/2 hours between 1st and 3rd vdm's for a speed of about 11kts.

Its only 37 nmi from the center fix with 4 hr 45 min (fix at 1315z) to the 18z forecast

yeah this is due to the ridging building back it last night and this morning. should slow again as the ridging weakens tomorrow then speed up as the shortwave picks it up..

[Swimdude]

Wow, woke up this morning to another eastward shift. I can't believe that the USA SHOULD be spared another USA landfall. Yea, it's going to be close, but I just can't believe how lucky we've been throughout the years....... One thing for sure, I will never ever trust GFS long range model forecasts again, or any of them for that matter, as they completely blew this one big time!

Not sure why you are thinking the US should be spared when the NHC and the mornings GFS, HWRF and Euro runs all forcast a potentially devastating landfall in the North East still Whilst the GDFL actually makes landfall in NC still. Are there any models out there not forecasting a US hit somewhere up the east coast?

I think the idea is that the models continue to trend eastward towards an out-to-sea solution, and there is no reason to say it won't continue, especially since Irene keeps missing the forecast points to the north. What was unthinkable yesterday (a US miss) is becoming more and more likely with every passing hour. The trend may reverse, but there is no sign of it happening, and with more and more data being fed into the models, a recurve solution is suggested by a greater number of them.

I will say the 12Z runs will be critical...another eastward jog will even more likely result in a US landfall being averted.

Unthinkable just yesterday? I don't brag here often, but after the first two eastern shifts (even while Irene was still pointed at Florida), I thought this could miss the US if the trend continued. Now here we are, six days later, and the track has shifted to the right every six hours without any move back to the left. I said it five days ago and I'll say it again--I don't see the trend stopping any time soon. Yes, the track is terrifying now, but I would place my bets on a US miss.

[RL3AO]

057
URNT15 KNHC 241352
AF303 1409A IRENE HDOB 30 20110824
134230 2316N 07447W 6967 03102 //// +092 //// 052042 043 /// /// 05
134300 2317N 07449W 6964 03105 //// +094 //// 054045 046 /// /// 05
134330 2318N 07450W 6971 03101 //// +086 //// 054046 047 /// /// 05
134400 2320N 07452W 6966 03106 //// +085 //// 057047 048 /// /// 05
134430 2321N 07453W 6967 03106 //// +085 //// 057046 047 /// /// 05
134500 2322N 07454W 6963 03114 //// +085 //// 060048 048 /// /// 05
134530 2323N 07456W 6970 03106 //// +085 //// 061049 049 /// /// 05
134600 2325N 07457W 6966 03111 //// +085 //// 062048 050 /// /// 05
134630 2326N 07459W 6970 03108 //// +085 //// 064046 047 /// /// 05
134700 2327N 07500W 6967 03118 //// +085 //// 065046 047 /// /// 05
134730 2329N 07501W 6965 03127 //// +085 //// 064046 046 /// /// 05
134800 2330N 07503W 6971 03114 //// +085 //// 063045 045 /// /// 05
134830 2331N 07504W 6967 03121 //// +088 //// 061045 046 /// /// 05
134900 2333N 07506W 6965 03124 //// +089 //// 063047 051 /// /// 05
134930 2334N 07507W 6969 03124 //// +089 //// 060045 047 /// /// 05
135000 2335N 07509W 6963 03127 //// +086 //// 063044 045 /// /// 05
135030 2336N 07511W 6960 03132 //// +089 //// 060044 044 /// /// 05
135100 2334N 07512W 6966 03124 //// +087 //// 056042 043 /// /// 05
135130 2333N 07511W 6971 03123 //// +094 //// 059038 038 /// /// 05
135200 2331N 07510W 6963 03128 //// +084 //// 061042 047 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Lowpressure]

The mid and upper level circ's are definitely tilted. recon fixes are showing the low level center partially under the left side of the visible eye. so the left eyewall we see in satellite is actually where the low level center is.

Recon not even in the center and 955mb at 39kts. Entering westrn eyewall.