ATL: IRENE - Models

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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4661 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 24, 2011 12:10 am

The fact is the GFS is off by 15 miles to the east of Irenes current position could be of consequence and this could be closer to the 12zEuro runs than the 0zGFS
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4662 Postby Tertius » Wed Aug 24, 2011 12:12 am

ROCK wrote:
crimi481 wrote:Areany models showinf Irene moving s.w.? (as shown in current Sat loops?)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ir4.html


its wobbling....ridges are not exactly smooth as they move around them. it will correct itself.


Yeah what Rock said. Plus, the eye is wobbling around in the storms center, offering temporary illusions of unexpected movement. It's the overall movement of the storm over time that counts, and I expect it will prove to be WNW over the next several hours, as it is supposed to be.
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#4663 Postby WxGuy1 » Wed Aug 24, 2011 12:13 am

supercane wrote:Latest GFS operational (non-interpolated) 00Z run slightly farther east than earlier ones past 24hr:
Image


Indeed, the eastward trend continues. What looked very improbable a few days ago (that is, no landfall at all in the U.S.) is now looking quite a bit more possible. Granted, the model consensus remains for hit on the outer banks of NC then northward towards CT/RI. However, for the most part, the model trends the past 72 hours has been eastward. Heck, this 00z GFS run shows the only technical landfall in Maine, and it's likely becoming extratropical at that time.

Of course, this doesn't mean that there will be no impact to the coast! Indeed, even if the eye is 30-50+ miles off shore, there still will be significant beach erosion, rip tides, and coast flooding. It's never a good idea to take any one model and model run, but the trend has been undeniable.
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#4664 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 24, 2011 12:19 am

Good call WxGuy1. I wouldn't be suprised that if we wake up tomorrow and the threat of it landfalling on the USA coast is gone....It might still be in the cone, but the east trend is not showing any signs of stopping..... Just a bit more and we'll be home free!
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#4665 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 12:23 am

0z HWRF @ +102 has a hit on OBX

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#4666 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:17 am

0z Euro is running
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#4667 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:20 am

0z Euro +24

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0z Euro +48

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#4668 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:22 am

0z Euro +72

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0z Euro +98

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#4669 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:32 am

0z Euro +120

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0z Euro +144

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#4670 Postby hurricanetrack » Wed Aug 24, 2011 2:22 am

Totally stunned at this outcome. Not a done deal yet but wow, we went from a possible landfall in Miami to GA, SC, NC, NY, MA, ME and now possibly Canadian Maritimes? At this rate the trend will be over the Flemish Cap.
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#4671 Postby Nightwatch » Wed Aug 24, 2011 2:34 am

Irene is going to do a Earl-thing... if this continues... no landfall..
lucky eastcoast...

worst scenario is a cat.2 in manhattan?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4672 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 24, 2011 3:27 am

The trend continues... I am shocked beyond belief really.

Image
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#4673 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 24, 2011 3:49 am

She teased us all... just like her sister Emily.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4674 Postby umguy » Wed Aug 24, 2011 4:06 am

UKMet is bringing it further west and closer to FL. It's taking into account the ridge has built back in. Aric has been saying it could happen.

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4675 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Wed Aug 24, 2011 4:36 am

UKmet! Back west!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4676 Postby xironman » Wed Aug 24, 2011 4:44 am

Euro bows to the GFS, I was truly shocked when i saw this.
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#4677 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 24, 2011 4:59 am

The 06z GFS is rolling in at the moment and at 54 hours it appears to be about 1 degree to the north-west of the 00z run. Also shows Irene tracking a bit more west in the short term and then feeling the trough properly in 24-36 hours with the forward speed increasing a bit near the 36+ hour range.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4678 Postby vacanechaser » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:06 am

xironman wrote:Euro bows to the GFS, I was truly shocked when i saw this.



thats why i dont buy it... gfs, is almost always to far east...



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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4679 Postby HurrMark » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:11 am

So far the 06Z GFS (through 72 hours) looks a tad W of the 00Z run...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4680 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:20 am

06z GFS 84 Hours - Image

06z GFS 108 Hours - Image
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