ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT POUNDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 72.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI IS
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND IRENE WILL LIKELY BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI IS
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 72.9W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 72.9W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 74.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.1N 75.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 76.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.7N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 36.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 42.0N 71.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 72.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

THE LAST PENETRATION OF THE EYE BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS
WAS JUST AFTER 0500 UTC...AND THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAD DROPPED TO 966 MB. THEY ALSO MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 92 KT OUTBOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. IT IS LIKELY THAT
HIGHER WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
HURRICANE. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS..THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
IRENE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
ARE 100 KT. COMBINING THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANOTHER
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200 UTC TO MEASURE THE
INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...THIS SHEAR
IS NOT EXPECTED TO PREVENT FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IT SEEMS
HIGHLY LIKELY THAT IRENE WILL INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS LATER
TODAY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR IN 1 TO 2 DAYS
DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. IN FACT...THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE
TECHNIQUE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS
AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE ANIMATION AND CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF IRENE HAS
BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST AND NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SMOOTHING THROUGH THESE WOBBLES YIELDS A MORE
REPRESENTATIVE MOTION OF ABOUT 295/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES. OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH A
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AROUND 72 HOURS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BEGIN TO
INDUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME
ACCELERATION AFTERWARDS. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS...AGAIN...SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS.

USERS ARE REMINDED THAT SIGNIFICANT ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
FORECASTS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT FORECAST POSITIONS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 21.6N 72.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 22.5N 74.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 24.1N 75.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 25.8N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 27.7N 77.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 36.5N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 42.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

NNNN

[bob rulz]

I can't wait to see what recon shows. Going to stay up for that tonight I think. It looks fantastic this morning. The Bahamas are really going to get hammered from bottom to top...

[bamajammer4eva]

Track shifted about 50-60 miles eastward near the end. Dashed line was 10 PM track. Solid line and wind swath is 4AM track

[maryellen40]

I hope that the people up in NYC are taking this very seriously. I think a lot of residents don't believe a hurricane can hit the city directly.

[RL3AO]

Big wobble north.

[GCANE]

The TUTT that is supporting Irene's nearly ideal poleward outflow channel is still positioned directly east of her at about 24N 55W.

Last time I looked yesterday at GFS, the TUTT was forecast to ride along side of her as she tracks northerly all the way to New England.

[GCANE]

The anti-cyclone still remains SSW of the eye.

To me, this indicates that the PV column is tilted vertically from the surface, at the eye, SSW toward the anti-cyclone at the tropopause.

This in turn may cause wobbles more to the south and west of the tropical-points on NHC's forecast track.

[floridasun78]

when do you all see turn toward nw? it suppose be turning nw today still going wnw

[Nightwatch]

I hope that the people up in NYC are taking this very seriously. I think a lot of residents don't believe a hurricane can hit the city directly.

sounds like the forgotten storm of 1938

[Meso]

Well she is already wobbling north of the forecast points so currently everything is as expected with her. She will begin a more accelerated NW movement tomorrow probably, but she is heading as expected when you take the wobbles into account.

[afswo]

I hope that the people up in NYC are taking this very seriously. I think a lot of residents don't believe a hurricane can hit the city directly.

sounds like the forgotten storm of 1938

While it is true most residents have forgotten, or think that it can not happen, state and local officials monitor very closely. Earl put everyone on edge briefly before heading away from New York.

[janswizard]

I hope that the people up in NYC are taking this very seriously. I think a lot of residents don't believe a hurricane can hit the city directly.

I just finished reading the on-line edition of the Cape Cod Times and I did not see one word mentioned of the possibility of a major storm heading their way.....

[Nightwatch]

I hope that the people up in NYC are taking this very seriously. I think a lot of residents don't believe a hurricane can hit the city directly.

sounds like the forgotten storm of 1938

While it is true most residents have forgotten, or think that it can not happen, state and local officials monitor very closely. Earl put everyone on edge briefly before heading away from New York.

What about stormsurge? Lower manhatten will be flooded?

Nice article I read last year when Earl almost hit eastcoast
http://www.livescience.com/8551-york-city-handle-hurricane.html

[GCANE]

Core has really snapped nicely into shape after this RI event.

Yesterday's eye-wall and inner-band hot towers did the trick like usual by kicking off a vortex Rossbly wave which induced the intensification.

Now seeing a well defined warm anomaly at 100mb.

[GCANE]

Wobble is very evident on the microwave loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[Shuriken]

Appears to be attempting to clear out a big eye this morning. -- Where have we have seen that before?

[afswo]

While it is true most residents have forgotten, or think that it can not happen, state and local officials monitor very closely. Earl put everyone on edge briefly before heading away from New York.[/quote]

What about stormsurge? Lower manhatten will be flooded?

Nice article I read last year when Earl almost hit eastcoast
http://www.livescience.com/8551-york-city-handle-hurricane.html[/quote]

Storm surge is a very big concern. In a perfect situation (which Irene isn't) 20+ foot surge is expected in certain locations. Studies and computer estimates have indicated complete inundation of Lower Manhattan with a category 3 hurricane. Similar effects can be felt with a winter coastal storm - although not to the same levels as a hurricane, of course.

[TheEuropean]

Latest pressure from the hunters:

957.1 mb!

[floridasun78]

it look like going pass near or over ocean bight island sw of turk

[Meso]

Recon is in the storm now and so far has 80kt SFMR with an extrap pressure of 957.1mb