ATL: IRENE - Models

[Jevo]

i believe it was forecast to build in...granted i think we see a bit more w motion tonite than forecast

but i think a key will be heights in the NE / great lakes thursday and any changes to the depth of the trough digging ....and the associated height changes (IF any) just S of carolina's on thursday ...flatter trough...higher heights could be more carolina threat..and a tough furhter west track

Being that it's a Hurricane with a well defined eye, don't we have to use like a 6 or 12 hourly motion, vs. a short-term movement. I'm saying that because if it is wobbling, it's harder to get a grasp on the motion of the system... due to the wobbling. Sorry about being redundant.

Certainly ill update the above posts.. stay tuned

[SouthFloridawx]

ahhh, so the model runs are at a different height then, where the steering currents aren't really being shown?
If Irene is just a Cat1, would she still be steered by the lower and mid levels, versus the upper levels? Or is her steering based more on her pressure versus the category?

I really like looking at this chart... It shows the 850mb Vorticity, the 500mb Heights and the 200mb wind flow.

[umguy]

Here is the link for the 500 one.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm2.GIF
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[crimi481]

Based on that GFS / 00Z/ 48 HR run you just posted, do you think next run has her back over Florida? (trend?)
If they show the building ridge in this run - would the ridge tend to get even stronger in time?

[Meteorcane]

Based on that GFS / 00Z/ 48 HR run you just posted, do you think next run has her back over Florida? (trend?)
If they show the building ridge in this run - would the ridge tend to get even stronger in time?

This GFS run actually looks roughly the same as the last one does not appear to be any real danger for Florida at this point.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +60



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0z GFS +72



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[Battlebrick]

Based on that GFS / 00Z/ 48 HR run you just posted, do you think next run has her back over Florida? (trend?)
If they show the building ridge in this run - would the ridge tend to get even stronger in time?

If the 0z GFS hits Florida I will eat my shoe.

So pretty much the answer is no.

[SapphireSea]

The second trough coming from the lakes already looks more powerful than initialized and forecast. Albeit, it appears that it may come by faster than forecast as well. Each run brings the second trough in faster as well, so it may be picking up on this by building ridging in later in the run. Although it will be the same result as the models and NHC depict so far.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +84



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0z GFS +96



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[Jevo]

0z GFS +108



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0z GFS +114



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0z GFS +120



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[northtxboy]

she sure is big for being so far north!!!

[PTPatrick]

So it looks a little further off shore and instead of a NYC/western long island hit, its more of a Montauk/Rhode Isand/CapeCode hit

[Jevo]

here is the current 0z GFS loop up to about +150 or so

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

she sure is big for being so far north!!!

Actually most tropical cyclones tend to expended up here, north of 40, as they start undergoing extratropical transition. What I find even more interesting is how tightly packed the isobars have been on every computer model run the past two days.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

she sure is big for being so far north!!!

Actually most tropical cyclones tend to expended up here, north of 40, as they start undergoing extratropical transition. What I find even more interesting is how tightly packed the isobars have been on every computer model run the past two days.

Yes, so tight you can hardly see the land/area underneath. Intensity much?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

she sure is big for being so far north!!!

Actually most tropical cyclones tend to expended up here, north of 40, as they start undergoing extratropical transition. What I find even more interesting is how tightly packed the isobars have been on every computer model run the past two days.

Yes, so tight you can hardly see the land/area underneath. Intensity much?

Exactly, as I wrote earlier the next roughly 72 hours will tell the tale. That is Irene's window within which to reach maxium intensity. After that time Irene will be far enough north that the ocean heat content will start to lessen and upper level westerly wind shear coming off North America will start to increase. If she bottoms out as a three or higher it will make a great deal of difference concerning the intensity she'll be when she reaches the NE. On the other hand if she never really gets her act together, and remains a one or peaks at a two, no way these models will turn out to be correct.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SunnyThoughts]

I agree about the isobars. I don't recall ever seeing ALL the models showing isobars like that for a storm. I'm sure its happened, but it just looks amazing.

[crimi481]

Areany models showinf Irene moving s.w.? (as shown in current Sat loops?)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ir4.html

[supercane]

Latest GFS operational (non-interpolated) 00Z run slightly farther east than earlier ones past 24hr:

[ROCK]

Areany models showinf Irene moving s.w.? (as shown in current Sat loops?)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ir4.html

its wobbling....ridges are not exactly smooth as they move around them. it will correct itself.