ATL: IRENE - Models

[GTStorm]

so the BAM suite at 0Z....are they hinting at a more westerly movement towards central / south-central Florida, before the big swing to the right, that the dynamic models might pick up on?

BAMs

I'll take that as a "no"

[Bocadude85]

Yesterdays 24 forecast postion was 21.1N 72.4W last VDM postion 21.05N 71.93W, not enough to get excited about yet but if this continues it could be a major issue IMHO.

Update NHC coords. 21.3N 72.4W

Major issue how? As in moving out to sea?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

last night's GFS did show a big slow down. I remember commenting to Nik that it looked like the storm was barely moving for 24-36 hours, and the little movement it showed seemed to be mostly NW. It initialized a bit further south than it was at the time-- It initialized the storm over Hispanola. So even if it initialized wrong, the slowdown was at least considered by the GFS.

[umguy]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm3.GIF

There is the 3z. Ridge is back I think.

[Jevo]

and we're off...

0z GFS initialized plot +0



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[CronkPSU]

we have more G-IV info in this?

[Battlebrick]

we have more G-IV info in this?

yes.

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0302Z WED AUG 24 2011 THE 00Z GFS STARTED ON TIME WITH GOOD NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR DATA COVERAGE INCLUDING 42 DROPSONDES AND 10 FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS FROM NOAA G-IV AND USAF RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IN THE VICINITY OF HURRICANE IRENE.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +12



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[Jevo]

0z GFS +24



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[TreasureIslandFLGal]

ummmm, that looks like the ridge is building back in. or maybe I'm looking at that wrong? isn't a 1012mb high the "line" that storms don't go through usually? less than that they can push along through a bit, but isn't 1012 something that they can't usually pass through? Or is it at 1014 or 1016?

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the 00Z GFS expects the NW turn to begin in about 12 hours.

[umguy]

ummmm, that looks like the ridge is building back in. or maybe I'm looking at that wrong? isn't a 1012mb high the "line" that storms don't go through usually? less than that they can push along through a bit, but isn't 1012 something that they can't usually pass through? Or is it at 1014 or 1016?

Isaw it too. Another trough is supposed to be coming to push the ridge back out

[SouthDadeFish]

ummmm, that looks like the ridge is building back in. or maybe I'm looking at that wrong? isn't a 1012mb high the "line" that storms don't go through usually? less than that they can push along through a bit, but isn't 1012 something that they can't usually pass through? Or is it at 1014 or 1016?

From what I've gathered, it's better to look at the 500mb height, which is the purple color on that chart from RaleighWx.

[cpdaman]

i believe it was forecast to build in...granted i think we see a bit more w motion tonite than forecast

but i think a key will be heights in the NE / great lakes thursday and any changes to the depth of the trough digging ....and the associated height changes (IF any) just S of carolina's on thursday ...flatter trough...higher heights could be more carolina threat..and a tough furhter west track

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

let's see how strong they depict the coming trough, and how low does it go? and how high will Irene be when it is supposed to wield its greatest influence?

[umguy]

Looks like the 00Z GFS expects the NW turn to begin in about 12 hours.

I'm just a silly pilot. But I will so that still look wnw to me.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah this flow chart is for...

400-850mb
TC MSLP/Vmax: 970-989mb/60-90kts

[Jevo]

0z GFS +36



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0z GFS +42



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0z GFS +48



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[TreasureIslandFLGal]

ahhh, so the model runs are at a different height then, where the steering currents aren't really being shown?
If Irene is just a Cat1, would she still be steered by the lower and mid levels, versus the upper levels? Or is her steering based more on her pressure versus the category?

[SouthFloridawx]

i believe it was forecast to build in...granted i think we see a bit more w motion tonite than forecast

but i think a key will be heights in the NE / great lakes thursday and any changes to the depth of the trough digging ....and the associated height changes (IF any) just S of carolina's on thursday ...flatter trough...higher heights could be more carolina threat..and a tough furhter west track

Being that it's a Hurricane with a well defined eye, don't we have to use like a 6 or 12 hourly motion, vs. a short-term movement. I'm saying that because if it is wobbling, it's harder to get a grasp on the motion of the system... due to the wobbling. Sorry about being redundant.