ATL: IRENE - Models

[vacanechaser]

It was 100mph with much more pressure. I think the plane sometimes misses where the highest winds are located, it happens. But at 969mb now, there is no way this is just at 90mph.

Pressure and winds are not a one-to-one relationship. Irene is quite a bit bigger now than last night. Igor had a pressure of 945mb at one point while a Cat 1, while some storms at that pressure have been strong Cat 4s.

very true... but the winds will catch up eventually... there seems to be a lag time in the winds coming up quickly as the pressure drops quickly..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[boca]

Their was mention if Irene didn't make that turn or stall it would be a new ball game but how can every model be wrong has that ever happened before.They used the G-IV data to sample the atmosphere and wouldn't that take in account speed and direction.

[Meteorcane]

Their was mention if Irene didn't make that turn or stall it would be a new ball game but how can every model be wrong has that ever happened before.They used the G-IV data to sample the atmosphere and wouldn't that take in account speed and direction.

Calm down this happens every-time a fairly significant turn is forecast, people don't have faith in the models and the minds that analyze them it will happen and I believe it was not even suppose to happen until some time tomorrow.

[umguy]

Where is the map of the steering currents on the web?

[cpdaman]

Their was mention if Irene didn't make that turn or stall it would be a new ball game but how can every model be wrong has that ever happened before.They used the G-IV data to sample the atmosphere and wouldn't that take in account speed and direction.

Calm down this happens every-time a fairly significant turn is forecast, people don't have faith in the models and the minds that analyze them it will happen and I believe it was not even suppose to happen until some time tomorrow.

i know what your sayin but i think there is something to mention since this storm has S l o w ed down some...perhaps im wrong and it was supposed to slow down to the degree it IS

b/c in other cases when these things are movin like bowling balls and people are like "where's the turn" "it's 5 miles past where it was supposed to turn" but this MAY be different

[boca]

It was more of a what if statement I know that its going to follow the forecast track but theirs always a small part of me that says that Aric Dunn might have something

[umguy]

Their was mention if Irene didn't make that turn or stall it would be a new ball game but how can every model be wrong has that ever happened before.They used the G-IV data to sample the atmosphere and wouldn't that take in account speed and direction.

Calm down this happens every-time a fairly significant turn is forecast, people don't have faith in the models and the minds that analyze them it will happen and I believe it was not even suppose to happen until some time tomorrow.

I think everyone was calm. I think we were all just wondering when the new models come out to see if the support a new scenario.

[Meteorcane]

Their was mention if Irene didn't make that turn or stall it would be a new ball game but how can every model be wrong has that ever happened before.They used the G-IV data to sample the atmosphere and wouldn't that take in account speed and direction.

Calm down this happens every-time a fairly significant turn is forecast, people don't have faith in the models and the minds that analyze them it will happen and I believe it was not even suppose to happen until some time tomorrow.

i know what your sayin but i think there is something to mention since this storm has S l o w ed down some...perhaps im wrong and it was supposed to slow down to the degree it IS

b/c in other cases when these things are movin like bowling balls and people are like "where's the turn" "it's 5 miles past where it was supposed to turn" but this MAY be different

Oh I certainly agree the turn may occur sooner/later than expected but with all the data available today it is almost certain it will occur. Granted if I lived in say North Carolina and points north a little difference in the turn location could have big impacts so I really should not downplay it.

[BigA]

Where is the map of the steering currents on the web?

Here you go.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[SeminoleWind]

i think it might be slowing because it is moving into an area of weaker steering currents, she should be on her merry destructive way in a few hours or so

[Jevo]

0z GFS Running

[GTStorm]

Current steering



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Edit.... Ah BigA beat me to it.. well done sir

32 dive, I'd say...looks like a nice hole for the tailback.

[umguy]

When I go forward the ridge is building back in.

[cpdaman]

that should update soon and change from 00 utc to 03 utc...interested to see if heights are building to the north /NNW of her

[umguy]

Where is the map of the steering currents on the web?

Here you go.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

Thanks for sharing.

[tailgater]

Yesterdays 24 forecast postion was 21.1N 72.4W last VDM postion 21.05N 71.93W, not enough to get excited about yet but if this continues it could be a major issue IMHO.

Update NHC coords. 21.3N 72.4W

[Battlebrick]

anyone have 0z GFS?

[GTStorm]

so the BAM suite at 0Z....are they hinting at a more westerly movement towards central / south-central Florida, before the big swing to the right, that the dynamic models might pick up on?

[RL3AO]

so the BAM suite at 0Z....are they hinting at a more westerly movement towards central / south-central Florida, before the big swing to the right, that the dynamic models might pick up on?

BAMs

[SeminoleWind]

anyone have 0z GFS?

should be running in just a few moments