ATL: IRENE - Models

[new england91]

After looking at water temperatures in the projected path, I'm a lot less worried about a major hurricane. I think it will be minimal if it gets by NC.

But! I'm NOT an expert and you should always follow the instructions of your local officials.

Exactly, the further north it gets, the more weaker it will be, because it won't have the warm bathwater to sustain it.....If this would have been going to Florida, it could have been a cat 4 or 5 we'd be talking about, as opposed to a cat 1....I'd say anyhing north of New York and you'll be looking at a tropical storm...It could still be up to a weakening cat 1 though as far north as New York

well you also need to factor in that when a hurricane or tropical storm in that location accelerates to the north at 25 to 35 mph you have to factor that in to the sustained winds so a 75 mph hurricane would give you possible wind gust to 95 to 110 mph and a tropical storm with winds of 55 to 70 mph you factor in a accelerating storm it would be 75 to possibly 90 mph gusts

[gatorcane]

18Z early cycle guidance:

[Stephanie]

18Z early cycle guidance:

Looks tighter towards the East Coast.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks like a little slower and a hair later turn. I was expecting the east trend to continue. Might be a one run thing.

[Rainband]

Looks like a little slower and a hair later turn. I was expecting the east trend to continue. Might be a one run thing.

have faith

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=114hr

its about 40 miles further west than 12z. 12z was just off va beach. 18z about 40 miles west of norfolk

[KWT]

Models still look like they want to take it from the Oyter Banks NNE into the NE states, exactly where remains to be seen yet.

[seussianagenda]

Looks like the models area trending west again. This isn't good for me at all. Is there any tool that shows potential wind field around the model track. I could use that in making a decision.

[Brent]

[linkerweather]

After looking at water temperatures in the projected path, I'm a lot less worried about a major hurricane. I think it will be minimal if it gets by NC.

But! I'm NOT an expert and you should always follow the instructions of your local officials.

Exactly, the further north it gets, the more weaker it will be, because it won't have the warm bathwater to sustain it.....If this would have been going to Florida, it could have been a cat 4 or 5 we'd be talking about, as opposed to a cat 1....I'd say anyhing north of New York and you'll be looking at a tropical storm...It could still be up to a weakening cat 1 though as far north as New York

well you also need to factor in that when a hurricane or tropical storm in that location accelerates to the north at 25 to 35 mph you have to factor that in to the sustained winds so a 75 mph hurricane would give you possible wind gust to 95 to 110 mph and a tropical storm with winds of 55 to 70 mph you factor in a accelerating storm it would be 75 to possibly 90 mph gusts

That isn't actually true. The forward speed is already factored in to the maximum winds in the storm. That is the main reason why the right front quadrant of a hurricane has the strongest wind, conversely the left rear quadrant ends up with the lightest winds. So a hurricane with 90 mph maximum winds would usually be in the right front quadrant. So, assuming the storm was moving 20 mph, then you could assume that winds would be around 50 mph in the left rear quadrant. Of course other factors play a role and this is a generalization.

[Meteorcane]

Will the fact that Irene is weakened possibly have an impact on her steering influences?

[Dean4Storms]

She better start gaining more latitude than she did today come tomorrow or we got another ball game.

[Bocadude85]

She better start gaining more latitude than she did today come tomorrow or we got another ball game.

How do you figure?

['CaneFreak]

I do not think I have never seen two areas of PV maxima in a tropical cyclone before...there is an obvious one near the center but there is also a new convective maximum with -80 C tops to the east of the circulation...any thoughts on what this could potentially do to the track/intensity? Thanks in advance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[Emmett_Brown]

She better start gaining more latitude than she did today come tomorrow or we got another ball game.

Yeah Dean, I agree. Definitely a slowdown too. Some slowing was forecast, but she looks like she may need to move faster to make her next forecast point in time. Also, last couple of frames appear almost stationary. This is common for storms that are organizing, but as we saw the other day (when center reformations caused notable shifts in the models) these short term fluctuations can start to add up to model changes down the road. I honestly don't know how a stall would affect the future path, but I imagine it would change somehow.

[Dean4Storms]

She better start gaining more latitude than she did today come tomorrow or we got another ball game.

How do you figure?

Simple, the weakness is there and she is getting deeper now.

[Meteorcane]

I do not think I have never seen two areas of PV maxima in a tropical cyclone before...there is an obvious one near the center but there is also a new convective maximum with -80 C tops to the east of the circulation...any thoughts on what this could potentially do to the track/intensity? Thanks in advance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

Yeah that is really bizarre I figure it will eventually wrap around.

[HeeBGBz]

She better start gaining more latitude than she did today come tomorrow or we got another ball game.

It looks to me like she's headed towards Cuba. (untrained assumption and amateur opinion)

[HurricaneWarning92]

She better start gaining more latitude than she did today come tomorrow or we got another ball game.

How do you figure?

I believe Aric Dunn was mentioning earlier today that if irene doesnt make that northward turn soon, the pattern could change. Something like that. Idk i thought it was interesting.

[northtxboy]

when is the next model run