ATL: IRENE - Models

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

NYC Mayer Just gave a press conference about the earthquake. He basically said we are fine, but we need to keep a very close eye on this hurricane coming up the coast.

Perfect opportunity fo rhim to be able to draw attention to the hurricane much farther out than they would normally do!

[Jevo]

18Z GFS is running

[PTPatrick]

just noticed that Irene is officially out of its 3 day cone. If you look at where it is now and the cone as projected saturday afternoon, it is OUT of the 3 day cone. In fact I think it went out of its 48 hr cone. In any case, I think the northern center reformation did it. Just goes to show it all means squat. Until you have a good well defined center and well defined synoptics. I think big changes like that are over now and track is pretty well set for next few days.

[ncweatherwizard]

12Z GFS ensembles stay east of SE US and midatlantic including the Carolinas:

The GFS ensemble is severely underspread. I wouldn't read much into it being tightly clustered, because it's almost always tightly clustered.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +24



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[KWT]

Hardly a model left that's even clipping the Outer Banks now. Amazing. Still could feel some serious effects and of course will have to watch for an actual Northeastern landfall.

Yeah the models really have shunted right, very impressive!

Still the track is still to the NNE and so if it kept that track up, gonna be hard to totally miss the US coast.

However still plenty of time for this to end up left of the forecast as well to be fair...

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF ensembles.

Fairly tight clustering here

120 hours:

144 hours:

[KWT]

Yeah and importantly thats pretty much identical to the NHC track, looks like a hit on the Outer Banks followed by a possible hurricane hit for the NE coast.

[Jevo]

18Z GFS +48



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[KWT]

Looks like Irene is east is on this forecast, looks like it'll be another up the coast type track from Irene...

Could be an even worse case set-up then we were expecting if that was to happen, esp given the large size of the hurricane.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +72... Left of 12z?

Say hello to our friend out East as well



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[Jevo]

18z GFS +96

Our new friend out East is starting to head north



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[InstantWeatherMaps]

Landfall in Long Island on 18Z GFS with central pressure of 966 MB.



Source: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=120

[Hurricaneman]

I dont know what to say except this could be epic for the northeast

[KWT]

That would be a monster hurricane, the angles would have to be just right but a NYC threat isn't out of the question, though granted I'd be surprised if it was more then a 70kt hurricane by that point unless it really bombs in the Bahamas.

[CrazyC83]

This looks like a Southeast miss but a Northeast disaster. Best case would be for it to miss southern New England and hit Maine, since the Gulf of Maine is very cold.

[linttrap]

I also just got word Navy ships are moving out. They are pretty positive it will be a direct hit

Maybe in FL.

NOT in Norfolk---yet..

On Tuesday, Commander, U.S. Second Fleet ordered all U.S. Navy ships in the Hampton Roads area to set Sortie Condition Bravo in order to maintain fleet readiness as a precaution due to the approach of Hurricane Irene. Sortie Condition Bravo requires that ships make necessary preparations to get underway within 24 hours.

The setting of a sortie condition does not mean the actual sortie is inevitable. Should weather forecasts indicate, the sortie condition may be downgraded at any time.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +120



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[KWT]

This looks like a Southeast miss but a Northeast disaster. Best case would be for it to miss southern New England and hit Maine, since the Gulf of Maine is very cold.

Yeah, gonna be a little difficult for it to miss New England based on the angle of the upper trough on the models...still we'll see!

[Jevo]

18z GFS +144



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